Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Barnegat, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:45PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 8:45 PM EST (01:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 6:10AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 703 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Rain likely after midnight.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 703 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through eastern pennsylvania, eastern maryland, delaware and new jersey late tonight. High pressure should then build across our region on Thursday and Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through our area on Saturday, followed quickly by a weak cold front on Saturday evening. An ill-defined area of low pressure is anticipated to ride along the front and it should affect our weather on Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive from the northwest early on Monday with high pressure influencing our region on Tuesday. Low pressure may approach from the west and southwest on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barnegat, NJ
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location: 39.75, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 242313 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 613 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through eastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey late tonight. High pressure should then build across our region on Thursday and Friday. A warm front is expected to lift through our area on Saturday, followed quickly by a weak cold front on Saturday evening. An ill-defined area of low pressure is anticipated to ride along the front and it should affect our weather on Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive from the northwest early on Monday with high pressure influencing our region on Tuesday. Low pressure may approach from the west and southwest on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. A very mild afternoon in progress across the entire region, and definitely warm enough that a sea breeze boundary is evident on radar across eastern New Jersey. An upper air analysis showed a trough from central Canada to the western Great Lakes westward across the Midwest to northern Rockies. A 100-knot 500 mb speed max was across the Lower Michigan region this afternoon. The energy associated with this speed max and accompanying trough is driving surface low pressure eastward across the Great Lakes. This is influencing our weather along with offshore high pressure, resulting in warm air advection under a modest southerly wind.

Plenty of warm air advection this afternoon continues into this evening ahead of a cold front. Surface low pressure tracks across the eastern Great Lakes then across northern New England through tonight, pulling a cold front across our area area later tonight. There is limited moisture associated with this feature with the bulk of the forcing for ascent confined near and along the surface low track. As a result, the shower chances across much of our region looks rather low. The exception is north of I-78 and especially for the Poconos and adjacent far northwestern New Jersey. Even here, any rain showers will result in just light amounts. The clouds will also increase for a time tonight ahead of and along the cold front, with clearing then occurring late tonight.

Once the cold front moves through, cold air advection ramps up however the airmass is not forecast to be all that cold. As a result, temperatures tonight will be on the milder side for much of the night especially as at least some breeze should be maintained with some increase anticipated post-frontal.

For Thursday, the aforementioned cold front will settle well to our south as surface high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and toward our region. Lingering cold air advection in the morning is forecast to weaken as the flow aloft turns more zonal. A tight pressure gradient through about midday should result in a noticeable breeze, although this is expected to wane during the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes due to incoming high pressure. While the afternoon temperatures will be much cooler than today's, they are expected to top out right about where they should be for this time of year (some areas even a bit above the average).

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. The weather pattern will remain progressive during the period from Thursday night through Saturday.

Surface high pressure is forecast to build from the Ohio River Valley on Thursday night to the waters off New Jersey and Long Island on Friday. A mid level short wave trough approaching from the northwest is expected to pass overhead early on Friday. However, it should have limited moisture associated with it. As a result, we are anticipating nothing more than scattered clouds for Thursday night and Friday along with seasonable temperatures.

As the mid level flow backs to the west southwest for Friday night and Saturday, a couple weak short waves are anticipated to pass overhead, one on Friday night and the other around midday on Saturday. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to lift slowly through our region on Saturday with a weak cold front following from the west on Saturday evening.

Clouds will be on the increase on Friday night, and light precipitation will likely spread into our region from the west and southwest after midnight. Temperatures should be cold enough for the event to begin as frozen precipitation from around the Interstate 95 Corridor northwestward. All rain is anticipated near the coast.

A developing 40+ knot low level southwesterly jet should help to erode the cold air trapped near the surface on Saturday. The wintry precipitation is expected to gradually change to rain from southeast to northwest, even in the Pocono Region by early afternoon. Any snow and ice accumulation in eastern Pennsylvania and in northern New Jersey should be light.

Liquid precipitation totals from this event should favor the 0.2 to 0.4 inch range in our region, so there is no concern for flooding even with the ongoing snowmelt.

Temperatures on Saturday are expected to rise into the 50s on the coastal plain, and into the 40s inland as the wind veers from the southeast to the southwest.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A wave of low pressure is expected to ride along the slowly departing cold front on Sunday. As a result, we are anticipating another round of precipitation. The forecast temperature profiles suggest an all rain event for our region on Sunday. We should be able to handle the currently expected amounts, a half inch to an inch in eastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey, and less than a half inch in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. However, if the axis of heaviest rain begins to shift northward we may see the potential for some localized minor flooding in those areas.

A mid level short wave along with its associated surface cold front should kick the moisture off the coast early on Monday. A gradual clearing trend and seasonable temperatures are anticipated for Monday. A secondary shot of cold air is expected for Tuesday with temperatures dropping below normal.

The Canadian and the ECMWF are hinting at a coastal system for Wednesday, while the GFS is not. For now, we have included a chance of precipitation at that time. There could be enough lingering cold air to result in a wintry mix (if the event occurs) mainly from the Interstate 95 Corridor northwestward.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight . Mainly VFR, though a period of midlevel clouds and possibly even some sprinkles will occur between about 02z and 06z. Main issue will be southwesterly low-level wind shear, which will approach 50 kt up to 2000 feet through 06z before diminishing as a cold front moves through. Surface winds will range from southerly to southwesterly 5 to 15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt or so before frontal passage (coinciding with the lowering clouds). Winds will quickly switch to west or northwest after the front moves through. Speeds and gusts will likely remain similar through the overnight hours, though there may be a period of enhanced winds just after frontal passage. Moderate confidence.

Thursday . VFR with northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. High confidence.

Thursday night . VFR with light northwest winds becoming more variable after midnight. High confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . VFR. Variable wind less than 10 knots. High confidence.

Saturday . MVFR/IFR conditions in rain. A wintry mix is possible in the morning, mainly around KRDG and KABE. Southeast wind around 10 knots becoming southwest. Medium confidence.

Sunday . MVFR/IFR conditions in rain. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.

Monday . MVFR conditions early improving to VFR. Northwest to west wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Medium confidence.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisory extended to mid-morning Thursday for Delaware Bay and through early afternoon Thursday for the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coastal waters. Southerly flow ahead of a cold front will shift to the west and northwest overnight into Thursday. A robust low-level jet on the order of 50 knots moves across the area mostly during this evening. The air mass in place is rather mild which will reduce the mixing some over the colder waters, therefore gale force gusts are not anticipated with the presence of the low-level jet. The winds however will remain gusty Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon in the wake of the cold front as cold air advection occurs allowing for better mixing for a time. The winds and seas will subside Thursday afternoon.

Outlook .

Thursday night through Friday night . No marine headlines are anticipated.

Saturday . Southerly wind 15 to 20 knots gusting near 25 knots.

Saturday night and Sunday . Even though wind gusts should fall below 25 knots, wave heights on our ocean waters may remain around 5 feet.

Sunday night and Monday . No marine headlines are anticipated.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431.

Synopsis . Iovino Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Iovino Long Term . Iovino Aviation . CMS/Iovino Marine . Gorse/Iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi76 min E 12 47°F 1013 hPa41°F
44091 23 mi50 min 41°F4 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 30 mi46 min 43°F 41°F1012 hPa (-2.3)
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 40 mi46 min S 5.1 G 7 47°F 36°F1009.9 hPa (-1.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 42 mi70 min SSW 9.9 G 14 50°F 36°F1009.2 hPa
BDSP1 49 mi46 min 49°F 36°F1009.4 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ13 mi50 minS 1010.00 miFair47°F40°F77%1011 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ21 mi46 minS 710.00 miFair47°F39°F74%1009.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMJX

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4S4S5S5S6S10S8S4E33SW10W5SW10W11SW13W10W9

Tide / Current Tables for Double Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Double Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:42 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:26 AM EST     0.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:34 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EST     0.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.1000.10.20.20.30.30.30.30.20.20.10000.10.10.20.30.30.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:29 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:23 AM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:53 AM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:50 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 PM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:58 PM EST     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.60.61.62.22.11.50.7-0.1-0.9-1.6-2.3-2.5-2-10.21.21.61.40.90.2-0.6-1.3-1.8

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.