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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mercersburg, PA

June 25, 2024 3:41 PM EDT (19:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM
Moonrise 10:54 PM   Moonset 8:24 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 134 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight - .

This afternoon - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tonight - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with tstms likely.

Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 245 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

Synopsis - Offshore flow will persist through at least Friday. Flow remains light enough for a sea breeze to develop each afternoon. Deep moisture will remain in place keeping rain and storm chances high.

Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, june 24th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 32 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mercersburg, PA
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Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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884 FXUS61 KCTP 251916 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 316 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will drift off of the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight, allowing increasing moisture to return to the region.

Heat will build again by Wednesday leading to a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day and Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through the state.

Dry weather with comfortable humidity on Thursday and Friday will be followed by another cold front late Saturday or early Sunday of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Extensive mid and high clouds venting from decaying MCS over the eastern GLAKS and OH Valley have been streaming overhead for most of the day. This appears to have shaved 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit off of temperature trends, but thinning high clouds may allow mid to late afternoon temps to catch up to overall boundary layer warming and reach within a few degrees of previously forecast highs. We did cut maxes by 3-4 degrees throughout, but the slight increase in dewpoints accompanying slightly higher temps than yesterday (and less of that refreshing breeze) will counteract the underperforming temps.

Focus is on moisture and heat return scenario tonight and Wednesday, and resulting complicated convective mode/forecast tonight and Wednesday. We start out with near term CAMs differing wildly on their initialization of the aforementioned ongoing MCS over OH, and how much recovery will be needed in these areas late tonight and Wednesday morning to support potentially another MCS in the Wednesday morning hours that can impact convective evolution Wednesday afternoon and evening.

At the very least, a warm front will try to lift northeastward across the Eastern Grt Lks tonight with a few showers and possibly a tsra possible over the west/northwest mountains.
Much less certain is the potential for showers or thunder farther east across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state as the instability axis over Lake Erie, sags to the SE.
Again, MCS propagation early Wednesday morning turning "right" towards the WV/MD panhandles can greater influence POPs farther north, and confidence is low on the timing and track of the Wednesday morning MCS. PW surges to between 1.0 and 1.5" by late tonight, at least providing the fuel for potential activity overnight and Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned surging PWs and falling heights ahead of an upstream cold front will overall bring a much better chance of widespread showers and scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. How we get there is far less certain, owing to the aforementioned uncertainty in MCS formation and track. There is a scenario where the early morning MCS pinches off moisture and instability to areas farther north as it curves southward, stably stratifying much of central PA early in the day and challenging temp/instability recovery ahead of the advancing cold front. Those details will need to play out to give us a better idea of convective setup later Wednesday and Wednesday evening, but the SPC slight risk for southeast and south central PA certainly highlight areas with the greatest threat for strong storms to develop later Wednesday.

A ribbon of relatively strong low to mid level (west to southwest) winds of 50 to 55 kts, combined with moderate instability, suggests organized convection and locally severe weather is possible Wed PM. Latest ensemble plumes indicates most likely aerial average rainfall Wed will be between one half and one inch.

High temps Wed should reach the upper 70s to low 80s across the Northern Mtns and upper 80s to low 90s respectively across the Central and SE zones.

After the return of warmer and humid conditions Wednesday, Thu and Fri turn comfortable once again with dewpoints dropping back into the 50s (and 40s up north).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Predictability begins to wane by this weekend regarding the timing/amplitude of the shortwave trough expected to move from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast/New England. There is some potential for stronger deep-layer flow to overspread an increasingly moist warm sector, but details regarding the surface pattern remain uncertain, and rather warm temperatures aloft could limit destabilization potential. Some potential for strong to locally severe storms could evolve on Saturday ahead of a cold front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast. WPC has also suggested the potential for a marginal to slight risk of locally heavy/excessive rainfall on Saturday with pwats surging to +2SD above normal. The timing of the main synoptic cold front on Sunday is also uncertain with some potential for a secondary strong/svr tstm risk.

Confidence is significantly higher concerning the arrival of another refreshing Canadian high pressure system directing a comfortable (less humid) airmass into CPA for early next week...a seasonably cool and dry start to July!

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High confidence in VFR flying through the evening into the first half of tonight/06Z Wed. Uncertainty ramps up overnight into early Wednesday morning with potential for showers and t-storms moving into the airspace from the north/west. Can`t rule out some cig restrictions in the 06-15Z window based on the latest probabilistic guidance, but the overall pattern/low level flow don`t provide a strong enough signal to maintain in TAFs outside of KBFD. Confidence continues to trend lower from late Wed morning through 18Z and beyond given highly conditional/potential strong to severe t-storm scenario. A 40kt low level jet from 230-260 degrees will maintain LLWS at KBFD between 00-06Z.

Outlook...

Wed...Thunderstorm impacts likely.

Thu-Fri...Generally VFR.

Sat-Sun...Thunderstorm impacts possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KHGR HAGERSTOWN RGNLRICHARD A HENSON FLD,MD 12 sm48 minWSW 09G1710 smClear88°F54°F31%29.95
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Wind History graph: HGR
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Tide / Current for Chain Bridge, D.C.
   
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Chain Bridge
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Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet
12
am
2.9
1
am
2.6
2
am
2
3
am
1.4
4
am
0.9
5
am
0.6
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.6
8
am
1.1
9
am
2
10
am
2.9
11
am
3.4
12
pm
3.4
1
pm
3.1
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
2.1
11
pm
2.8


Tide / Current for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
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Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet
12
am
2.9
1
am
2.5
2
am
2
3
am
1.4
4
am
0.9
5
am
0.5
6
am
0.4
7
am
0.6
8
am
1.2
9
am
2.1
10
am
3
11
am
3.4
12
pm
3.4
1
pm
3
2
pm
2.4
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
0.7
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
1.3
10
pm
2.2
11
pm
2.8


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Sterling, VA,




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