NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through tonight under high pressure.
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The slow, northward migration of a coastal low toward the Carolinas will introduce thicker cirrus for eastern zones and maintain the surface pressure gradient. The increasing cloud cover plus enough boundary layer mixing should keep area temperature elevated (notably along the western slopes of the Laurel Highlands), which translates to about 5 degrees above the daily average.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm again Monday.
- Low pressure may bring rain chances to the West Virginia ridges late Monday night.
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High pressure will remain centered across the northeastern CONUS to start off Monday, but gradually begins to weaken and shift east over the northern Atlantic by Monday night as a low pressure system approaches the area from the south.

Models have maintained their recent westward trend with the track of the low, indicating it approaches the Lower Ohio Valley region by Tuesday. Rain chances could begin to increase from S-N as early as Monday night as moisture and ascent increase on the northern periphery of the approaching low.
Maintained chance POPs over the WV ridges after Midnight to reflect this growing potential. Rain chances will increase further going into Tuesday; more details on that can be found in the Long Term section below.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler Monday afternoon due to the breakdown of high pressure and increasing cloud cover, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures Monday night actually trend a couple degrees warmer than recent nights due to the increasing moisture and cloud cover, with most remaining in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return to the region, peaking Wednesday - Slightly above average temperature will remain before rising farther above normal heading into the following weekend -------------------------------------------------------------------

Global model ensembles are favoring the trend of the coast low aiding the development of a weak 500mb low near the Upper Ohio River Valley Tuesday through Thursday. Return flow around this upper feature and farther NW movement of the surface low will aid in higher rain probabilities while excessive cloud cover limits diurnal heating/cooling. Fine scale features remain harder to diagnose to pinpoint potential moderate rain bands, overall thunderstorm threat (left slight chance mention but mean CAPE values struggle to reach 500 J/kg any afternoon), and potential influence of the prior dry airmass on limiting accumulations.

Confidence is fairly high on this upper wave/surface low combo to slowly drift back toward the east coast starting Thursday.
Subsidence in its wake will cause a west to east gradient of lower rain chances and thinning cloud cover. Increased insolation and weak height rises should also foster slight temperature rises through Friday. Longer range outlooks depend on whether this wave phases with a stronger Nova Scotia trough to maintain a positively tilted trough (resulting in slightly cooler temperature and low probability high terrain rain) or some sort of Great Lakes ridge building (resulting in dry weather and above normal temperature).

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. High clouds increase in coverage from south to north late tonight into Monday as high pressure over the region begins to break down and a low pressure system approaches the area from the south.

Easterly winds could see a slight uptick Monday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the approaching low, with guidance suggesting a more widespread prevailing speed around 10 knots. However, cooler temperatures and cloud cover may limit the depth of mixing and therefore gust potential, with guidance suggesting <30% probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 20 mph.

Outlook
VFR is expected through Monday. Occasional restrictions and showers are possible Tuesday through Thursday as low pressure slowly tracks from the Carolina coast to the Ohio Valley region.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.