Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mather, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Light snow accumulation and a small potential for freezing in the morning along with much cooler temperatures

2) Freezing rain a potential for Monday night

3) Pattern shift in early March, increasing the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave trough will cross the region overnight into Sunday morning. There is a degree of uncertainty regarding warm air aloft and potential for a brief period of freezing rain (mainly south of PGH) overnight, but latest guidance has backed off on probabilities, down to under 20%. Even then, IF there is a bit of freezing rain early in the morning, road temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing and see the only real potential impact being some potential slick spots on overpasses/bridges. With that, no plans for an advisory at this time, and will just need to monitor conditions overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another shortwave is expected to impact the region on Monday and Monday night. This second system is expected to track south of I-70 and track into WV and VA. This will bring a small snow potential to the southern counties but a second wave will follow in behind and lift north a bit as it strengthens. This will bring a freezing rain potential into the entire forecast area for Monday night. There is a bit more uncertainty here with the track as the NBM provides a 40% to 50% prob of exceeding a 0.01 of freezing rain. The better chance at this point seems to be east of the Laurels. This threat has also been added to the HWO and will need monitored for shifts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Consistent long-range model data indicates a drastic temperature shift beginning Tuesday and could last through mid-March, attributable to the development of a ridge across the Northeast and a trough west of the Mississippi River Valley. The resulting persistent southwest flow, extending from Texas into the Ohio River Valley, will generate above-average temperatures and shower and storm development in association with numerous western disturbances.

Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri currently have the highest risk of flooding concerns due to the present alignment of the trough and ridge axis. However, a slight shift in the axis could extend high water issues into Ohio and will need to be monitored.

The risk of severe weather is no longer negligible and could accompany the threat of heavy rainfall in early March. The threat of strong to severe storms will likely escalate if a developing low-pressure system combines atmospheric instability (from warm, moist air) and high wind shear near our location.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid level clouds are expected to increase this evening ahead of the approaching cold front. This front is likely to bring at least MVFR restrictions tonight into Sunday morning with rain and snow along with northeasterly wind. IFR restrictions are possible (50%-60%)
Sunday morning as the precipitation begins to move out. This is when the wind will back out of the north-northwest

Clouds will begin to gradually scatter out from west to east, starting mid-morning on Sunday. By early afternoon, VFR conditions will be area wide as a high pressure system moves in over the area.

Outlook...
Restriction and a wintry mix potential returns Monday night into early Tuesday with an approaching warm front. Restriction potential continues Tuesday and Wednesday in occasional rain as the front lifts north across the region.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.