LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Medium-range model guidance continues to show good agreement, indicating that the ridge will break down a little bit over the Florida Peninsula as a robust frontal boundary approaches South Florida from the north beginning on Sunday. The frontal boundary will then wash out over Central Florida early next week. This weather pattern will allow for more of southerly wind flow over South Florida focusing the showers and thunderstorms more over the eastern areas each day.

Precipitable water values (PWATs) are expected to increase to the 2.0-2.2 inch range Sunday and Monday leading to more widespread convective activity. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of South Florida under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on both Sunday and Monday. Given the very light deep-layer flow and abundant low- to mid-level moisture, isolated flooding from slow- moving convection will be a daily concern, particularly in vulnerable low-lying metro areas.

By middle of next week, the subtropical ridge will build over the western Atlantic, reinforcing a more easterly flow regime over South Florida. PWATs will remain elevated as any SAL plumes remain south of the CWA, and daily storm chances will remain elevated.

Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year with highs in the lower 90s to mid 90s. Lows will also be in the mid to upper 70s except around 80 over the east coast metro areas. Heat indices will remain above 100 degrees each day next week over South Florida.

The National Hurricane Center highlighted an area of disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic waters early this afternoon.
It is too early to determine any direct impacts to South Florida late next week as model guidance shows considerable variability in the potential of development of this disturbance. This is a good reminder to go over your hurricane check list and supplies as we are in tropical season.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

SCT thunderstorms over the interior will gradually diminish over the next several hours and then mostly VFR skies expected overnight. Light SE winds overnight becoming 10-15 kts after 15Z Saturday, with a Gulf breeze developing at APF after 18Z. SCT thunderstorms possible again in the afternoon and early evening Saturday which may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE
Issued at 106 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the Atlantic waters through the upcoming weekend, while winds over the Gulf waters will likely shift to the SW during the afternoons in response to the Gulf breeze circulation. Seas will generally decrease to 2 feet or less through the weekend, outside of any thunderstorms which could produce locally higher seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 93 80 94 / 20 40 10 50 West Kendall 76 93 78 94 / 20 50 10 50 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 94 / 20 40 10 50 Homestead 79 92 79 92 / 20 30 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 79 93 / 20 40 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 79 94 / 20 40 10 60 Pembroke Pines 78 95 79 94 / 20 40 10 50 West Palm Beach 78 93 78 94 / 10 40 10 60 Boca Raton 78 93 79 93 / 10 40 10 60 Naples 76 92 79 92 / 50 50 30 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.