Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Powhatan Point, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 240 AM: The center of surface high pressure moves south off the Carolina coast through the period. A cold front drops south toward the area and stalls over VA. A wave of low pressure moves east along the front. The front remains nearly stationary to the east while western sections move back north as a stronger wave of low pressure moves into the Midwest.

Isolated convection moving east along the front may move near our area this morning, but the bulk of the convection remains to our north. A moist southwesterly low level flow develops today with an increase in PW values. Instability increases as well, reaching the 1000 J/kg range, and possibly 1500 J/kg, north of the I-85 corridor.
Guidance is pretty consistent initiating scattered convection across the NC mountains during the afternoon and moving it east across the NC foothills and NW Piedmont. Isolated convection is possible south of there to the I-85 corridor, but this is more uncertain. Dry conditions expected south of I-85. Bulk shear looks to top out at 20 kts. There is some DCAPE and Sfc Delta Theta-E, but these aren't especially high either. While the severe threat is minimal, it's not zero, so can't rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging winds. Given the coverage and movement of the storms, the flood threat is minimal as well, but locally heavy rain is possible.
Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal.

Convection should dissipate relatively quickly in the evening with loss of heating, but a spotty shower will be possible overnight.
Lows will also be around 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold Front Trending Slower

2) Diurnal Convection Expected Each Day, with the Best Chances Across the Mountains

3) Breezy South/Southwest Winds Develop Each Afternoon

4) Above Normal Temperatures Continue

Upper ridging gradually breaks down and shifts east of the forecast area as upper troughing gradually digs across the eastern US through the short term. Meanwhile, at the sfc, the western periphery of a ridge will gradually nudge east of the forecast area as a cold front approaches out of the west. The main change is the cold front trending slower. Thus, the best shower and thunderstorm chances should hold off until the long term. So, mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through Friday, with the highest chances expected across the mountains. Activity should linger over the area Friday night as the front begins to push across the forecast area. SBCAPE from roughly 1,500-1,900 J/kg will develop Thursday afternoon, with slightly higher SBCAPE expected to develop Friday afternoon. Deep layer shear will generally be 25 kts or less each day so the severe weather threat should remain low despite decent instability. However, a few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out each afternoon/evening. Breezy S/SW winds will develop each afternoon but will remain well below advisory criteria. Highs each day will end up ~7-10 degrees above normal, with lows each night ending up ~10-15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A Cold Front Brings Better Shower and Thunderstorm Chances on Saturday

2) Cooler Temperatures Return this Weekend into Early Next Week

3) Some Models are Now Trending Wetter Sunday into Early Next Week

A cold front tracks across the forecast area on Saturday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Capped PoPs to likely (60% to 70%) across the entire forecast area on Saturday as some timing differences remain among the global models. Shower and thunderstorm chances may linger through Saturday night or early Sunday but confidence is low due to model disagreement. Breezy winds will develop again on Saturday in association with the front but gusts will remain well below advisory criteria. Confidence declines rather quickly Sunday onward as global models diverge regarding both the upper-level pattern and low-level pattern. The 00Z GFS depicts sfc high pressure building into the region behind the departing front Saturday evening into early next week allowing dry conditions to return. The 00Z Canadian is now trending towards a wetter solution similar to the ECMWF as both models depict an upper cutoff low developing over the eastern US late this weekend, lingering over the region through early next week. The placement of the upper low differs slightly between the two models but this would act to keep rain chances around despite location differences. Capped PoPs to chance during this timeframe as confidence remains very low due to model disagreement. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler this weekend into early next week. Highs should end up a few degrees above normal on Saturday, possibly dropping a few degrees below normal on Sunday and Monday. Above normal highs may return on Tuesday. Lows each night should end up a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated showers and thunderstorms should stay north of the TAF sites early this morning. Patches of low VFR stratocu and BKN cirrus expected into the morning. Can't rule out some valley fog at KAVL. Low VFR Cu develops after daybreak and remains across the area through the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across the NC mountains and move east across the foothills and NW Piedmont during the afternoon and early evening. Have PROB30s at KAVL and KHKY where chance is more likely.
Isolated convection possible at the rest of the sites, but chance too low for the TAFs. Convection dissipates quickly after sunset.
Can't rule out some patchy fog or low stratocu overnight, but too uncertain for TAF mention. Light and variable or light SW wind this morning picks up speed from the SW through the day. Light S to light and variable wind returns overnight.

Outlook: Aftn/evening showers/storms possible again Thu mainly in/near the NC mountains. Unsettled weather Fri-Sat as a frontal system reaches the region. The front may stall keeping unsettled weather over the area on Sunday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.