Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Powhatan Point, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week.

2) Increasing daily storm chances this week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Continued ridging will persist throughout the week, keeping high temperatures roughly 15F to 25F above average, and lows 20F to 30F above normal. This early-season heat may pose minor heat risk, particularly given it's the first extended duration of heat this year. Bouts of moderate heat risk are also possible for urban river valleys by mid-week. This generally only impacts those which are sensitive or extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration.

Area record highs have a 50/50 shot at being broken on Wednesday. Record max lows have a risk of being broken everywhere for most of the week, with the highest chances in eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia on Tuesday and Wednesday. The biggest failure mode for not reaching records will be afternoon storm chances (and affiliated cloud cover).
See the climate section for more information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Thunderstorm chances increase into the work-week with daily chances >30% peaking each afternoon. This is in conjunction with returning moisture and >75% chance of non-zero afternoon buoyancy. The region will remain parked underneath a ridge axis with multiple systems likely to pass to the northwest; the highest chances of convection and severe weather, along with the highest chance of initiation and higher shear remain northwest for now. Locally, these systems are favored to skirt the area, providing daily, low (but non- zero) chances of severe weather Monday and beyond (CSU MLP has ~5% within 25mi each day). CIPS indicate chances may increase some Wednesday, Thursday, as ensembles favor some minor ridge flattening, bringing storm chances farther southeast.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low MVFR to IFR cigs continue across some terminals this morning. Clouds will continue to erode from the north, and this trend should continue through mid morning. Expect a return to VFR as these clouds dissipate with increasing subsidence under building high pressure.

Light winds are expected through the TAF period. Some high clouds will begin to enter the region by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Sunday as high pressure moves across the region.
The potential for periodic restrictions and showers/thunderstorms return Monday through Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area, and then stalls.

CLIMATE
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:

Monday, April 14th Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)

Tuesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)

Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)

Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)

Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)

Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.