Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Powhatan Point, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Anomalously warm temperatures this week.

2) Increasing daily storm chances this week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Ridging aloft will be the dominant feature through the majority of the week, which will keep daytime highs and lows roughly further 20-25 degrees above normal through the week. In some cases, the height center over the Gulf will be just over 588 decameters. Certainly uncommon for this time of year. The NWS HeatRisk tool shows a persistent minor heat risk across the region this week, which means impacts will be primarily for those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. The day with the largest area of heat risk concern appears to be Saturday. Latest ensemble guidance shows 25-75% probabilities of area record highs being hit (varying each day) over the course of the week. New high minimum record probabilities range from 25-99%. The biggest failure mode for not reaching records will be afternoon storm chances (and affiliated cloud cover). See the climate section for more information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A persistent return-flow pattern begins to take shape over the East Coast with the 850MB centered off the southeast coast. This keeps the southeast CONUS dry but sets the main axis of moisture and unsettled weather through the MS Valley and then northeast through the OH Valley. This sets the stage for a series of shortwaves to track across the OH Valley and into the Upper Portion. This will feature a daily chance od showers and thunderstorms across the area. Tuesday into Tuesday night appears to be the best day for thunderstorms with the NBM giving a 50% chance od thunder. No Marginal Risk has been introduced yet but probabilities are increasing for at least 1000 J/kg for Tuesday into Tuesday night. That prob is at a healthy 60% to 80% but mainly over in Ohio. Precip chances will follow each day through midweek and even into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

After sunset, winds will continue to decrease in intensity with decoupling. The probability of LLWS from the southwest is expected to increasing between 04Z to 08Z with an approaching trough over the Great Lakes.

Light rain is expected to be in the vicinity of terminals between 10Z and 12Z. Gusty conditions may accompany isolated showers. With warm advection, the chances of cigs dropping below VFR is considered low.

In the wake of shower activity, expect diurnal driven gusts to range between 20kts to 30kts into the afternoon and early evening hours.

High resolution models signal a moisture boundary developing south of Lake Erie late Monday evening, between 23Z and 02Z. If this scenario occurs, cig and vis restrictions from showers and/or storms may occur near FKL or DUJ.

Outlook...
The potential for periodic restrictions and showers/thunderstorms through Thursday as a surface front approaches and stalls across the Great Lakes region, and waves of low pressure track along it.

CLIMATE
See below for record max highs and max lows this week:

Monday, April 14th Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)

Tuesday, April 15th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
Zanesville, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DuBois, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)

Wednesday, April 16th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
Wheeling, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
New Philadelphia, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
Zanesville, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DuBois, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)

Thursday, April 17th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
Wheeling, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DuBois, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)

Friday, April 18th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
New Philadelphia, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
Zanesville, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)

Saturday, April 19th: Max High Max Low Pittsburgh, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
Wheeling, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
Morgantown, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
New Philadelphia, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
Zanesville, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DuBois, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.