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FXUS66 KSTO 041118 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 318 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2023


Synopsis
Areas of dense fog in the Valley today and likely tomorrow morning, mainly from Marysville southward. Warm and dry to start the week, then shower and high elevations snow chances return Wednesday through Thursday.

Discussion
Areas of patchy fog are being observed on traffic cameras across the Sacramento Metro Area this morning along with few passing high clouds this morning with areas of mountain fog per GOES-West satellite imagery. An upper level ridge axis passing over California resulting in very light to no winds is already promoting areas of dense fog in the Sacramento Valley this morning. Coverage likely to increasew in these early morning hours across portions of the central Sacramento Valley. The HRRR is showing a 50-80% chance of visibility less than 1/4 mile in the Sacramento Valley and Delta beginning from Yuba City down to Stockton. Similar foggy conditions will likely occur tomorrow morning from Yuba City southward past Modesto and potentially in the Redding/Anderson area of the northern Sac Valley. Remember to slow down and use low beam headlights if fog is encountered while driving. Conditions on both days should clear by 11AM as the fog mixes out.

Dry weather will continue through Tuesday as the aforementioned high pressure ridge remains over California. Precipitation chances return to the region beginning Wednesday as a low pressure trough located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest moves onshore. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall over the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding mountains early Wednesday before coverage becomes more widespread later in the day. Currently, the NBM is projecting a 60-80% chance of an 1" or more of rain over the Northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding mountains. For rest of the Valley, precipitation totals are expected to be lower with only a 20-60% chance of areas receiving 0.50" of rainfall.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be lower Thursday morning through the afternoon with only a 30-50% chance of the northern Sacramento Valley and surrounding mountains seeing an inch or more of rainfall. Snow levels will be around 7000-8000 feet on Wednesday before lowering to 6000-7000 feet Thursday morning. Snow amounts are trending lower but a few inches are still possible.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
Friday will be a transition day with high pressure starting to build over the region and potential breezy northerly winds for the valley. A few lingering showers will be possible and those should mainly be over the mountains. Both Clusters and deterministic models are in good agreement with building a ridge over the area starting on Friday and lasting into Sunday. Uncertainty increases next week with the deterministic models indicating a breakdown in the ridge starting late Sunday into Monday while the clusters are keeping a ridge over the area. The NBM is still keeping some showers over the area this weekend but the trend is towards more dry weather.

AVIATION
Areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR in BR/FG from 12Z-19Z Monday (50-80% probability of 1/4 SM visibility, mainly from MYV southward).
Surface winds will remain below 10 kts. Similar foggy conditions expected tomorrow morning.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

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Sacramento %234, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Westport
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Mon -- 05:16 AM PST     4.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:50 AM PST     3.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:46 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:30 PM PST     4.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 10:30 PM PST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:54 PM PST     Moonrise
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Westport, California, Tide feet

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