Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vina, CA

FXUS66 KSTO 072036 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1236 PM PST Sat Dec 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Slightly cooler and breezier weather Sunday into Monday. Dry weather continues through mid-week before unsettled weather potential returns late next week.

DISCUSSION
Fog is finally lifting from the northern San Joaquin Valley, with Modesto and Stockton both reporting visibilities above 1 mile as of this writing (around 12:30pm PST). Isolated patches of dense fog may remain for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, dry weather with above normal temperatures persists today.

Later this weekend, a shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest causing heights over NorCal to lower; this will cool temperatures slightly and bring breezy to gusty northerly winds to the Valley from Sunday afternoon to early Tuesday. The NBM currently shows a 40 to 80% chance of gusts of 30 mph or higher on Sunday and Monday. Highest chances remain along the western side of the Sacramento Valley, along the I-5 corridor, as well as in the mountain and foothills gaps and canyons. These winds will do the additional work of suppressing fog development in the mornings. Sunday morning only shows a 20 to 40% chance of visibilities less than 1 mile in the NBM.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
While there is still some disagreement in cluster analysis on the strength and path, ensemble guidance continues to indicate sometime late next week we'll see a trough dig into northern California. The latest NBM model run has a 35 to 75% chance of 1 inch or more of precipitation in the Sacramento Valley, with a 10 to 20% probability of the same in the northern San Joaquin Valley.
Snow levels remain around 5000 ft for the event at this time, with the NBM showing a 35 to 70% chance of 12 inches of snowfall or more at those elevations or higher. There continues to be uncertainty with this event, so stay tuned for updates and details as we get closer. Otherwise, temperatures later this week look to be slightly above to near normal, with Valley highs in the 50s to low 60s (40s to 60s at higher elevations).
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