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FXUS66 KSTO 032121 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 121 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

Synopsis
Shower activity has ended for the area; areas of dense fog likely in the Valley tomorrow and Tuesday morning, mainly from Marysville southward. Warm and dry to start the week, then shower and high elevation snow chances return Wednesday through Friday.

Discussion
Latest GOES-18 satellite observations show some breaks in the clouds for the Valley this afternoon. The trough and associated moisture that brought showers and high elevation snow showers is racing off to the east this afternoon. Behind the vacating trough, an upper level ridge of high pressure is beginning to amplify and will help usher in warmer temperatures and dry weather for the beginning of the work week. With our recent rains, light winds, and limited cloud cover, areas of dense fog are likely to form Monday and Tuesday morning in the Valley, with the best chances from Marysville southward. If you encounter fog during the morning commutes, remember to slow down, never use high beam lights, and give yourself extra spacing between vehicles. Late Tuesday evening, there is a chance (10-30%) of precipitation in far Northwestern Shasta County, as some moisture may race ahead of the primary system that will bring more widespread precipitation chances Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a trough from the eastern Pacific will move inland and bring shower and high elevation snow chances back for the area. Widespread precipitation will start early Wednesday in the northwestern counties and spread south and eastward as the day progresses. Currently, the bulk of the precipitation will likely be in the Northwestern Counties such as Shasta and Tehama, and for locations in the Northern Sierra. The National Blend of Models (NBM) currently has a 60-80% probability of receiving at least one inch of rain for Redding and areas north and west. For areas south of Redding, rainfall totals drop to less than 0.50" inches, with a general 20-60% chance of receiving at least 0.50" inches of rainfall. Snow levels will be at around 7000-8000 feet at the onset of precipitation, then lower to around 6000-7000 feet as the day progresses. Total snowfall accumulations look to be around 1-3 inches for Wednesday, which may make for some slippery driving conditions and possible chain controls at pass levels.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...
Thursday will see another shortwave trough move across NorCal in West-Northwest flow as the parent low moves inland to our north.
Current NBM guidance keeps the bulk of moisture in the far northwest counties and the Northern Sierra. Friday afternoon/evening we will start to see some clearing as the trough moves further to our east and is replaced by upper level ridging in the eastern Pacific. For Saturday and Sunday, forecast uncertainty is still high as as models and clusters differ on the progression rate of the ridge. The NBM has some light rainfall chances on Saturday evening into Sunday for the mountains and Northern Sac Valley, but other ensembles such as the GFS and ECMWF keep the area dry.

AVIATION

General VFR conditions in the Valley today, with areas of MVFR/IFR/LIFR in BR/FG from 08Z-19Z Monday (50-80% probability of 1/4 SM visibility, mainly from MYV southward). Local southerly surface wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts through 00Z Monday, then winds decrease to below 10 kts. In the foothills/mountains, areas of MVFR/IFR with lingering showers mainly north of Interstate 80 through 06Z Monday.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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