Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Refton, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely.

2) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late week into the second week of March. However, temps may be lower than guidance on Friday, especially in eastern PA.

3) Fog is expected to get worse and expand into more of the CWA by sunrise.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely.

On the heels of one of the driest winter seasons on record (see climate section), periods of much needed rainfall are expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March. The wet pattern is favored to last into the second week of March based on the latest CPC 6-10/8-14 day precip outlooks. Surges of Pacific and Gulf moisture interacting with wavy or slow moving frontal zones is projected to deliver total rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches across CPA through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late week into the second week of March. However, temps may be lower than guidance on Friday, especially in eastern PA.

Persistent and amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper ridging will promote a significant springtime warming trend from late week into the second week of March. Fcst max and min temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above the historical average Sat-Tue and may challenge daily records. Fri is a big if on temps - mainly in the east. Deep easterly flow behind an expected backdoor (moving down from the NE) cold front could keep us much cooler than guidance. This has been a concern/forecast challenge for a few days, and after collaboration with our neighbors we've made a move to lower forecast max temps 4-6F over the east. We should get milder (hot) on Sat with good SWrly flow pushing the front back to the NE.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Fog is expected to get worse and expand into more of the CWA by sunrise.

Moisture is increasing while temps cool a bit overnight, and is an excellent setup for fog to get dense again by morning. The fog in the NW has already become dense, and HRRR/HRRR/SREF progs all show a very high probability of low visibility.
MAV/MET guidance also keep visby down at BFD thru 15Z. A little skeptical that the 1/4SM or less fog will last that long, but it's a certainty for the next 8 hrs at least. Later shift will probably have to expand the advy, but not enough confidence to post for anyone else just yet. They just improved a bit, anyway.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through the night with expansive low stratus and fog. A few showers will be possible into the early morning, especially south of UNV.

VFR conditions will return to BFD and IPT by late morning as a brief shift to northwesterly flow aloft brings drier air overhead. Recent guidance has shown ceilings rising to MVFR at UNV, MDT, and LNS for the afternoon as well. The low clouds look to be more stubborn for JST and AOO, with those sites likely remaining IFR through the day on Wednesday. These improvements will be short-lived, with IFR conditions expected to return area-wide Wednesday night as low clouds and fog expand once again.

Most of the region will be dry on Wednesday, but a few showers could sneak into southern PA during the afternoon. These would be most likely to impact JST and AOO, though they could reach as far east as MDT. Widespread rain returns to the region after 06Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions likely with widespread rain associated with a warm front.

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible, especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006- 010-011-017-024-033-058-059.