Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baltimore, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A slow moving upper low over the southern plains will allow for increasing southerly flow and marginal instability over the region today. Still a little dry air in the low levels over the forecast area, so radar echoes are from clouds of 6kft-8kft, so the expectation is for precipitation at ground level to hold off until very late morning in the west, with also a slight chance across the north where a surface boundary lingers.

After 18-20z, PW values increase to 1.5-1.8, up to the 90th percentile for early June. While instability is marginal, in the southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid level trough, the potential increases for more widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. As PWs increase and LCLs decrease by mid afternoon, with increased potential for localized heavier rain. Will include a mention primarily in the Tri- state area of the potential for scattered flood issues.

With the thickening clouds, daytime highs will be more muted in the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
While the approaching trough and quasi-stationary surface boundary will allow a focus for showers and storms to linger into the evening, with loss of diurnal heating and no focused LLJ, there should be a relative lull in shower/storm coverage as the night progresses.
Indications from several of the CAMs of a lull in the tri-state, with more focused potential for scattered precipitation lifting closer to areas along/north of I-71 closer to the stalled surface boundary.
Plenty of low level moisture lingers, with muggy overnight conditions and lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday will bring more rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms. Localized flooding will continue to be a threat, as some areas will see repeated rounds of moderate/occasionally heavy rain. Daytime highs near 80.

Even with the proximity of the surface boundary and upper low approaching, instability and shear remain pretty marginal for Saturday, with DCAPEs/potential for wet microbursts marginal with values near/below 500 J/Kg.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mid level trough axis and an associated weak surface wave will progress slowly east across the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into early next week. This will lead to occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. With weak afternoon instabilities, we will likely see some diurnal enhancement in the pops during the afternoons and early evenings. Any severe threat should remain minimal with locally heavy rain being the main concern. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the weekend.

We will transition to a bit more of zonal flow pattern through mid next week as a series of weak embedded short waves move east across the region within the flow. Temperatures will gradually moderate with highs by mid week in the mid to possibly upper 80s. This will combine with increasing moisture to allow for some better instabilities to develop through the later part of the period. As a result, we will have a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. A lower end severe threat may also develop as we head into mid week given the potential for better instability and a somewhat stronger flow pattern.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR condition expected through at least 15-18z, but with VFR CIGs lowering over time. The only exception is the near daybreak potential for MVFR visibility at KLUK. Brought in prob30 for shra after 15z at KLUK/KCVG/KILN, becoming more widespread after 18-19z with prob30 thunderstorms in the 18-23z timeframe at most locations. Any ceiling or visibility restrictions in thunderstorms should remain MVFR.
After 00z, a bit of a lull in shower activity from west to east, with temporarily diminished shower activity at the western TAF locations, but lingered some -SHRA at KCMH/KLCK.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Friday night through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.