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FXUS61 KILN 040546 AAA AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1246 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Occasional chances for precipitation will continue through mid week as a series of upper level disturbances move through the Ohio Valley.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Westerly mid level flow with initial shortwave moving continuing to move away from the area into the Eastern Great Lakes. A lingering showers in the far east will come to an end by midnight.

In between systems - expect clouds to improve and even scatter out for a period across the south prior to increasing late ahead of the next shortwave. Latest IR satellite shows clearing across the far south and based on upstream clearing across southern Indiana - expect this trend to continue. This wedge of clearing will be followed by an increase in mid level clouds ahead of the next shortwave.

Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A mid level short wave will move quickly east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day on Monday with an associated surface low sliding just off to our south. This will lead to a developing chance for showers across our south Monday morning, with the best chance being across our far southwest where will go with high end chance pops. The pcpn should then taper off from the west Monday afternoon. Highs on Monday will range form the lower 40s north to the mid and upper 40s in the south.

Short wave ridging will shift quickly east across our area Monday night before yet another mid level short wave approaches from the west late. It looks like the bulk of any pcpn associated with this next short wave should generally hold off through the night time period. Will therefore just allow for some slight chance pops into the far west late. Low level thermal profiles would support perhaps a little bit of snow mixing in with any pcpn that does develop across our northwest late. Lows Monday night will be in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Tuesday starts with a weak surface low tracking sw and skimming southwestern CWA. This low is underneath a l/w trough and rain showers are expected to begin in the later morning and taper off from west-east in the evening. With highs only tipping into the lower 40s, some snow may mix in in the morning, and then any rain should change to light snow, which could take a little further past midnight to end in the southeast.

No measurable precip is expected Wednesday, but flurries could be found through the course of the day, particularly through early afternoon. The available low level moisture and cold advection should be enough to overturn the air and spit out scattered patches of light snow/flurries.

Wednesday high temperatures were lowered to the NBM5% which kept it within about 4 degrees from NBM and earlier forecast. Felt the low end of guidance is the way to go here as h8 thicknesses only support upper 30s using DAY as a proxy. Increasing thicknesses with building high pressure later in the day will not overcome the cold air in place.

Return flow picks up for the end of the week and temperatures rise to near 50 Thursday and mid 50s Friday with overnight lows in the lower 40s Thursday night and mid-upper 40s Friday night. Expect warming trend to continue into Saturday, but models exhibit a strong variation in the overall pattern. This variation increases through Sunday and into next week.

System coming into the region Fri night/Saturday could be a decent rain maker for southeast CWA. Did not make any changes from NBM for this day given a wide range of potential outcomes.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGs remain in place at northern TAF sites thanks to a departing system. These will lift slightly overnight to low end VFR, but anticipate the deck as a whole to remain in place.
Some gusts linger in the north, but these should dwindle as the night progresses.

To our south, skies have cleared out and winds are calm or nearly calm. HiRes guidance suggests some patchy fog development and have periods of MVFR VSBY for CVG, LUK, and ILN.

Fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise as we begin to mix out ahead of the next disturbance that should move just south of our area. Rain showers are likely in Kentucky during Monday daytime hours, but confidence of shower activity along and north of the Ohio River is lower, therefore, did not include in TAFs for now.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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