Baltimore, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baltimore, OH

June 22, 2024 6:31 AM EDT (10:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM
Moonrise 9:18 PM   Moonset 5:07 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baltimore, OH
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Hot conditions continue today before a brief respite arrives Sunday into Monday with slightly cooler and drier air, especially on Monday. A few showers and storms are expected on Sunday, especially during the morning into mid afternoon. By late Tuesday, warmer and much more humid air will quickly build back into the region, with chances for storms returning Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for the last part of the workweek.

Aside from a few patches of cirrus from time to time, skies remain mostly clear this morning as temps settle into the lower to mid 70s with dewpoints generally in the upper 60s.

Highs in the mid 90s are likely again today, with dewpoints generally in the mid 60s during peak heating, yielding heat index values that are within a degree or two of the actual air temp itself.

There are several items for today that may support it being the warmest day of the week for some spots -- most notably the "driest" air that we've experienced this week, meaning that clouds and storm chances should be fairly limited. This, along with slightly better flow at the H8 level, should support deeper/more robust diurnal BL mixing than has been the case thus far this week. This may support a few isolated 96-97 degree readings, especially if dewpoints are able to mix out into the lower 60s (which will be favored in the lower Scioto Valley and NE KY)
the trend continues to be to not mix down the dewpoints quite as much in reality as some guidance has been showing, but even dewpoints in the mid 60s may allow for some 96-97 degree temps by late afternoon amidst filtered sunshine.

Thickening mid/high level clouds will be moving into the local area toward/beyond sunset, with the first real "change" of wx pattern upon us that we've seen within the past week. The increase in cloud cover and LL moisture content late in the night will translate to a /very/ warm night tonight as lows only dip into the mid 70s for many areas. A few showers or storms may survive into WC OH late tonight on a weakening trend.

Broad-scale height falls will already be underway by late today as the center of the ridge gets shunted to the SW into the lower MS Rvr Vly as troughing amplifies a bit into the Great Lakes region. The main S/W energy will pass us well to the NE across the interior NE, with the trailing cold front back to the SW across the wrn OH Vly by daybreak Sunday. Latest guidance continues to show a slightly faster progression of the front into (and through) the local area than had previously been indicated, with the best LL and deep-layer moisture and LL wind flow now positioning itself near/SE of I-71 early in the day.
The core of the LLJ will already be pulling E of the local area by 15z, with some trailing LL moisture lingering back to the SW across the SE 2/3 of the local area by early afternoon.
However, the front should continue to drift to the SE somewhat quickly, with some drier/well-mixed air already filtering into WC OH by late afternoon.

All of this paints a picture of a somewhat meager potential for organized strong to severe storms locally, despite some moderate instability (owing to ample LL moisture). The only real source for lift will be convergence along the front itself, but even the wind shift will be fairly gradual/subtle from one side of the front to the other. Currently, the best potential for a few strong to severe storms will reside near/SE of I-71 through mid afternoon before storm chances gradually diminish from NW to SE late in the day as drier air filters in from the NW toward Sunday evening. The main threat with the activity will be locally strong to damaging winds, with some small hail also possible. But, given recent data, the coverage of strong/severe storms should remain somewhat isolated.

Forecasting high temps on Sunday will be a challenge given the prospect of the front bisecting the ILN FA by mid afternoon.
Clouds and SCT storms may keep locales SE of I-71 a bit cooler than spots further to the NW, where there should be ample late day sun as some drier air filters in. Either way it is sliced, most locales will top out in the mid to upper 80s.

The cold front will be working its way through our CWA at the start of the extended period, most notable by the decrease in dew points/ moisture as it moves through. Overnight lows into Monday drop to the low 60s in the north and upper 60s along the Ohio River- quite a reprieve from what we've been experiencing.

Post frontal subsidence helps clear the clouds out for Monday and we'll wake to sunny skies. High temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s with much less moisture in the air. Overnight lows drop into the mid/upper 60s. However, this respite is short lived, as we quickly rebound on Tuesday with another surge of theta-e into the region ahead of the next system... a rather potent low are of low pressure that is carving its way through Canada.

In fact, Tuesday looks to be downright uncomfortable, with heat indicies sky rocketing back into the upper 90s, particularly for western Ohio and the Tri-State region, as this system works in from the west. Following this furnace blast of heat, a cold front will be slowly moving toward the Ohio Valley, moving through sometime Wednesday. With this being said, showers and storms forced out ahead of this front Tuesday overnight into sometime on Wednesday will have quite a bit of instability to work with. Already, some deterministic runs hint at a MCS somewhere near the Great Lakes region. Colorado State machine learning highlight Tuesday night with a 30 prob for organized severe weather for the ILN CWA and a prob 15 for Wednesday. For now, have maintained PoPs through the overnight hours Tuesday night and most of Wednesday as the front moves through the region.

Thursday and Friday we should dry out again and, possibly, have another respite from the heat in the cooler post-frontal air, particularly on Thursday. Box and whiskers plots for the NBM indicate a range from 80 to 88 for the high. While this forecaster would prefer the 80, have stuck with the blend for now and gone in the middle.

Some patchy BR may lead to MVFR VSBYs in the prone locales of KLUK and KILN in the several hours around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Diurnally- driven SCT VFR Cu will sprout about again for the afternoon hours before waning in coverage toward/beyond 00z. Some mid/high level clouds will approach from the NW toward the end of the period with some ISO/SCT SHRA toward 12z Sunday.

Winds will remain light/VRB through the morning before increasing out of the SW around 8-10kts for the afternoon. Winds should stay out of the SW toward the end of the period around 5-7kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday and late Tuesday through Wednesday.

OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLHQ FAIRFIELD COUNTY,OH 8 sm38 mincalm7 smClear70°F70°F100%30.12
KVTA NEWARKHEATH,OH 14 sm37 mincalm5 smClear Mist 70°F66°F88%30.10
KCMH JOHN GLENN COLUMBUS INTL,OH 15 sm40 minSE 0310 smA Few Clouds73°F70°F89%30.10
KLCK RICKENBACKER INTL,OH 16 sm36 minS 037 smClear73°F70°F89%30.10
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Wilmington, OH,

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