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FXUS61 KILN 102045 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 345 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance will pass across the area tonight. High pressure will build in Monday beginning an extended period of dry weather.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A weak disturbance tracking across the area this afternoon has resulted in a band of very light precipitation. A second disturbance will pass through tonight. This combined with west northwest low level flow coming off of the southern end of Lake Michigan will result in more light precipitation across northern counties. Skies will remain cloudy with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
High pressure will build into the area through the period. Low clouds will eventually clear from west to east during the day with skies then remaining mainly clear into Monday night. Highs will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows back in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A quiet weather period is expected next week across the region especially considering we are entering the middle of December. On Tuesday, an area of high pressure will be drifting southeast of the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow northwest of the high advects mild air into the area leading to highs in the middle to upper 40s for most locations. Fairly abundant sunshine is expected.

Clouds increase on Tuesday night when the first area of high pressure moves further southeast giving way to a cold front and another high moving in from the northwest. No precipitation is expected ahead of the front since forcing remains weak and PWATs remain near or below average. The second area of high pressure takes over on Wednesday briefly bringing in cooler temperatures on northerly flow before shifting east of the Ohio River Valley. Winds shift back to the south by Thursday once again allowing the return of mild December conditions.

The next low end chance for rain does not arrive until the weekend or start of next week when a low is forecast to the east/southeast.
Most ensemble guidance keeps any low pressure system that forms off or near the east coast which means dry conditions are a fairly high probability over the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ceilings starting off right around the VFR/MVFR threshold. These will lower solidly into MVFR during the early part of the period. Expect all terminals to drop below 2kft overnight. There will be some lifting and even breaks in the clouds late in the period. West northwest winds will back slightly on Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Monday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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