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FXUS63 KILX 021741 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

The 09Z/3 am surface analysis shows 1012 mb low pressure over northeast Indiana, nw of Fort Wayne IN with a frontal trof hanging back across central IL, se of I-55. Radar mosaic shows brunt of light precipitation has shifted north of central IL, though patchy light drizzle and fog was from I-72 north with vsbys as low as 1-3 miles from se of the IL river to along I-72. Low clouds blanket much of IL and upstream across much of MO and central/se Iowa.
Temps as 3 am were mostly in the upper 30s and lower 40s over central IL, but ranged from 34F at Galesburg to 48F at Lawrenceville.

Latest CAMs show low pressure weakens further to 1015 mb as it tracks into the southeast Great Lakes by midday while weak surface trof se of I-55 dissolves. CAMs show show patchy dense fog possible this morning east of Peoria affecting mainly Mclean county and southern Ford county and lifting during midday. Models continue to show low level inversion strengthening during today and likely trapping low level moisture/clouds over central IL and keeping it cloudy. Not much temperature climb today with the low clouds, with highs ranging from lower 40s along and nw of the IL river and upper 40s to near 50F in southeast IL.

A weather system over the central/southern Rockies to eject northeast from west central IL into northeast IL during overnight.
Rain likely spread over central IL during mid/late evening and lifts out by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts still look to be near or less than a tenth inch in southeast IL with quarter to a third of an inch from I-72 north. Far nw CWA near Galesburg could see mix of snow with the rain overnight into early Sunday morning while any snow accumulations mainly nw of Knox and Stark counties but will need to be watched. Lows overnight in the upper 30s to near 40F, except mid 30s from the IL river valley nw with areas from Galesburg and Kewanee approaching 32F. Highs Sunday range from lower 40s northern CWA, mid 40s heart of CWA and upper 40s and lower 50s in southeast IL.

07

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Unsettled pattern continues early next week as another weather system near the Pacific Northwest has an upper level low/trof tracking se into southeast MO/southern tip of IL by dawn Monday.
Models have trended further south with this feature along with better chance of rain showers overnight Sunday night into early Mon morning. Have 20-30% pops over central and southern CWA se of Peoria Sunday night with slight pops near the Wabash river valley during early/mid Mon morning. Models decrease clouds from the west during Monday though this may be a slower trend. Highs Mon in the low to mid 40s over much of area with upper 40s by Lawrenceville.
A 3rd weather system will be a northern stream short wave trof the dives down into WI/IL by overnight Monday night and returns yet another chance of rain showers. Northern IL could see snow mixed with the rain and will need to watch areas from I-74 north for this possibility overnight Monday night into early Tue morning.

Surface high pressure ridge to settles over the southern MS river valley on Wed and ridge into IL and to return dry weather with better chance of seeing more sunshine. Seasonably cool highs in the low to mid 40s Wed. Strong upper level ridge building over the Rockies and High Plains by mid week with IL getting into some height rise by late week and warming temps into the 50s Thu- Saturday with areas from highway 50 south getting close to 60F Fri/Saturday. Increasing chances of moderate rains during next weekend as a stronger storm system approaches from the Southwest States.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook for Dec 7-11th has a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures over IL.
CPC's 8-14 day outlook for Dec 9-15th continues trends of above normal temperatures across IL (60-70%), while precipitation is trending 40-50% chance above normal.

07

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

IFR conditions prevail at most of the central Illinois terminals late this morning...with the exception of KSPI where ceilings have risen above 1000ft. Given light/variable winds, low clouds will remain in place today, with a gradual rise to MVFR at KDEC/KCMI as the afternoon progresses. Further northwest, it appears IFR ceilings will persist at both KPIA and KBMI. The next approaching storm system will begin to spread showers into the area from the southwest this evening, followed by steadier rain from late evening into the overnight. Based on latest HRRR/NAM guidance, have introduced light rain at KPIA/KSPI by 02z...then further northeast to KCMI by 04z. The rain will reduce visbys to 1-3 miles overnight before increasing W/SW winds bring improved visibility and an end to the rain by Sunday morning.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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