Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Home, KS
December 10, 2023 7:33 AM CST (13:33 UTC)
Sunrise 7:33AM Sunset 5:04PM Moonrise 5:12AM Moonset 3:11PM
Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 101117 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 517 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures through the week.
- Dry through much of the week with precipitation chances for Friday-Saturday trending down (<15%).
DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
A longwave trough is progressing east across the central CONUS this morning with northwest flow over the central Plains. The pressure gradient is weakening as the trough pushes east and surface winds will swing around from the west to the south through the day. WAA remains weak, so temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the mid 40s to near 50. Northwest flow aloft persists on Monday with better downslope flow leading to slightly warmer high temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
A closed low dives south across the western CONUS with a ridge building into the Plains on Tuesday. A cold front moves through the area early Tuesday which, along with increasing mid and high clouds, will knock temperatures down 5-10 degrees from Monday's highs. The upper low is progged to be far enough west to keep precipitation away from the forecast area midweek. With that said, the GEFS does show a 20-40% chance for measurable precipitation across central Kansas. On the contrary, the ECMWF ensemble has less than a 10% chance for any precipitation. With the better moisture located well to the west, dry conditions are favored (80%) through Thursday. Uncertainty increases Friday through the end of the week as guidance varies in how the western trough evolves. Recent trends show the trough ejecting further south through southern Texas towards the Gulf of Mexico which limits moisture across the area and keeps the bulk of the precipitation well to the south. The NBM has reduced PoPs below 15% for Friday and Saturday which matches up with the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. There is still plenty of time for the track of this feature to change which will impact the area's precipitation chances. Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal into the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
VFR conditions prevail. West winds this morning gradually back to the south-southwest by this evening, remaining light through the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 517 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Near to slightly above normal temperatures through the week.
- Dry through much of the week with precipitation chances for Friday-Saturday trending down (<15%).
DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
A longwave trough is progressing east across the central CONUS this morning with northwest flow over the central Plains. The pressure gradient is weakening as the trough pushes east and surface winds will swing around from the west to the south through the day. WAA remains weak, so temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the mid 40s to near 50. Northwest flow aloft persists on Monday with better downslope flow leading to slightly warmer high temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
A closed low dives south across the western CONUS with a ridge building into the Plains on Tuesday. A cold front moves through the area early Tuesday which, along with increasing mid and high clouds, will knock temperatures down 5-10 degrees from Monday's highs. The upper low is progged to be far enough west to keep precipitation away from the forecast area midweek. With that said, the GEFS does show a 20-40% chance for measurable precipitation across central Kansas. On the contrary, the ECMWF ensemble has less than a 10% chance for any precipitation. With the better moisture located well to the west, dry conditions are favored (80%) through Thursday. Uncertainty increases Friday through the end of the week as guidance varies in how the western trough evolves. Recent trends show the trough ejecting further south through southern Texas towards the Gulf of Mexico which limits moisture across the area and keeps the bulk of the precipitation well to the south. The NBM has reduced PoPs below 15% for Friday and Saturday which matches up with the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. There is still plenty of time for the track of this feature to change which will impact the area's precipitation chances. Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal into the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
VFR conditions prevail. West winds this morning gradually back to the south-southwest by this evening, remaining light through the period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMYZ MARYSVILLE MUNI,KS | 7 sm | 18 min | W 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 23°F | 18°F | 79% | 30.24 |
Wind History from BIE
(wind in knots)
Topeka, KS,
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