Home, KS Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Home, KS

June 22, 2024 12:52 AM CDT (05:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM
Moonrise 9:15 PM   Moonset 5:04 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Topeka, KS
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FXUS63 KTOP 220449 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated air mass showers and thunderstorms possible today (15-20%). These are not expected to be severe.

- Heat builds for Saturday afternoon with heat indicies approaching heat advisory criteria. Showers and storms possible Saturday PM along a frontal boundary, some could become strong/severe with damaging wind gusts.

- Dangerous heat returns again Monday and Tuesday with widespread heat indices ranging from 100-110 degrees.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Another hot and humid summer day is in the forecast today as afternoon high temperatures will again warm into the low 90s area- wide. As the PBL has mixed over the past several hours, diurnal cu has overspread northeastern KS. With weak isentropic ascent, some isolated showers/storms have developed within this cu field with persistent 20% PoPs to continue over the afternoon and early evening to account for these airmass showers/storms. Taking a look at the synoptic features across the country, a large, retrograding upper- level ridge remains parked over the southeastern CONUS as a trough axis and embedded vorticity maximums eject into the high Plains. The associated coupled jet extending from the 4-corners to the Dakotas should push some mid and high clouds into the area this afternoon and evening, as seen on the latest satellite trends.

By Saturday morning, the trough axis over the south-central Rockies will continue to eject mid-level energy into the central Plains, deepening a surface low across northeastern CO and western NE. As the wave pushes northeast into the northern Plains into Saturday afternoon, the surface low will track across the KS/NE border, increasing low-level flow over eastern KS. Hot 850 mb temps, downsloping winds and PBL mixing ahead of the surface low/frontal boundary will lead to very warm temperatures Saturday afternoon.
Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 90s as moisture advection pushes low to mid 70 degree dewpoints north into the area. Heat indicies under these conditions will push heat advisory criteria, ranging from 100-105 degrees during peak heating hours. CAMs depict the surface boundary getting into north-central KS by the early afternoon hours that may provide some relief in the heat across north-central KS, but only by a few degrees. While heat indices will be approaching advisory criteria, it is important to note that if we factor in the wind aspect during the afternoon, conditions will feel slightly more tolerable than if there was less wind. This is highlighted by the WBGT (wet bulb global temperature) as south/southwesterly winds sustained between 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph keep WBGTs in the low to mid 80s. That said, it will be very warm tomorrow, so if you plan to be out in the sun and heat, make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks when necessary.

As the surface boundary slides across the area Saturday afternoon, scattered storm development will become possible with some storms becoming strong/severe. There has been a bearish trend in short range guidance for the coverage of storms along the boundary, especially until the late afternoon and evening hours. Uncertainty resides in the fact that instability mostly stays behind the boundary, there will only be marginal levels of deep shear along and ahead of the front with weak mid-level lapse rates. This does not point to a large hail risk within storms, but a damaging wind gust to 60 mph could be realized with the strongest updrafts Saturday afternoon and evening. Precipitation will exit to the east by Saturday evening as surface ridging builds in from the north.

The remainder of the weekend and into early next week will remain dry with oppressive heat building back into the area by Monday and Tuesday with the continued retrogression of the mid-level ridge.
Upper 90s to low 100s will be expected across the area and with the humidity still in the area, heat indices will approach 110-115 degrees. The highest confidence in much of the area seeing heat advisory conditions comes Monday while Tuesday could be altered a bit with a change in timing of the system moving in during the afternoon and evening. The heat does not appear to last into Wednesday as mid-level energy rounding the ridge axis pushes a surface boundary across the area Tuesday evening, shifting winds to the northwest and increasing precipitation chances across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A warm airmass should allow VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period. Forecast soundings and objective MOS guidance shows boundary layer winds remaining up through this morning with turbulent mixing expected to minimize the potential for low level wind shear. There could be convection along a weak boundary that moves into the area from the north this afternoon.
But CAMs show limited development along the boundary and decrease confidence in TS at a terminal. So will reevaluate TS chances with later forecasts.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMYZ MARYSVILLE MUNI,KS 7 sm17 minS 11G1710 smClear79°F70°F74%29.96
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Topeka, KS,




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