Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Home, KS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 423 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

We continue to see northwest flow aloft over the region with subtle embedded perturbations noted in this pattern over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure has developed in eastern NM and west TX, while another smaller area of low pressure is in western NE. An expansive high sits over the Upper Midwest. A couple of isolated showers with an occasional lightning strike have developed within the WAA regime in Coffey and Anderson Counties early this morning.
CAMs don't appear to be handling the current conditions the best with respect to these showers, but they are rather consistent in suggesting some additional development later this morning in east central KS, just south of where the warm front would be as the southern low pressure lifts north. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and weak elevated instability, this doesn't seem too far fetched of an idea, but the isolated nature of this activity keeps confidence low at any particular location. Cold front is expected to cross the area this afternoon, leading to some uncertainty in how warm temperatures will get for areas near the KS/NE border. They may not get out of the 50s this afternoon if CAA takes hold soon enough.
The rest of the area should have no problem reaching the 60s with some 70s along and south of the Turnpike before the front passes.

The high pressure to our north pushes south into our area tonight with CAA leading to much cooler temperatures by Sunday morning, ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s. Then strong WAA takes shape at 850mb through the day with isentropic lift strengthening Sunday afternoon and evening alongside subtle shortwave energy aloft. This all sets the stage for a potentially messy second half of the day.
Generally speaking, confidence is increasing in seeing travel impacts from a mix of wintry precipitation, but there are still a lot of questions to be answered as to which types will occur where.
It seems probable that any precipitation will hold off until the afternoon, given the amount of dry air to overcome in the low levels, and that idea is supported by the CAM guidance that is now within range. Still, that dry air is the biggest factor leading to the remaining uncertainties in the forecast, and the differences in temperatures among the guidance is the next biggest factor. Both the 00z and 06z HRRR runs show sfc temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s by mid-afternoon and the NAM is similar in this regard, whereas the GFS continues to be the coldest solution with the Euro somewhere in between. However, dew points are forecast to still be in the teens and 20s with all models showing enough low-level dry air leading to this question: what about wet bulb effects and what will that do to p-type? HRRR soundings still try to hang onto the dry air into the early evening, so it would also be fair to question whether this could further delay the start time. If precipitation does indeed start by mid-afternoon, it would seem that wet bulb cooling would have to occur. Models vary on how far south this potential exists. As it stands currently, parts of Lyon, Coffey, and Anderson Counties have the best shot at staying warm enough for rain, but those areas still have a low chance of wintry mix. Areas near the KS/NE border are colder and have the best chance of seeing minor snow accumulations around an inch. The probability for any area to see light ice accumulations is under 50%, but the focus appears to be in the center of the CWA along the I-70 corridor and places just north and south.

This system looks to move off to the east by Monday morning with forcing for ascent weakening. Periodic shortwaves the rest of the week bring multiple chances for precipitation, and fortunately temperatures gradually warm through the week and would favor rainfall. An increase in Gulf moisture as well as instability could lead to periods of heavier rainfall in thunderstorms with a few inches of rain accumulating by the end of the week, especially for eastern locations. Details on timing and amounts will get worked out as we get closer to each passing wave.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Scattered showers with isolated TS have developed in the area, so have added VCSH and VCTS as necessary based on current observations. CAMs have handled the timing of these rather poorly, so am basing the timing in TAFs on current trends.
Otherwise, expect winds to shift to the west and eventually north behind a frontal passage this afternoon. Clouds increase in coverage late in the period ahead of an incoming weather system.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.