Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Home, KS
May 18, 2024 2:57 AM CDT (07:57 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:04 PM Moonset 2:44 AM |
FXUS63 KTOP 180542 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1242 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated, pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon as a weak front settles into the area.
- Scattered severe storms are possible over portions of north central and northeast Kansas Sunday late afternoon and evening.
- Temperatures heat up to around 90 degrees area wide this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Broad northwesterly flow aloft passing through the central plains this afternoon while the open shortwave trough axis resides over northern Texas. A very weak perturbation noted sliding through the state may spark an isolated storm in southeast Kansas, however last several runs of the CAMs have centered convection initiating along a a residual boundary towards southern MO so confidence remains low for adding pops this afternoon. The aforementioned shortwave trough shifts east of the region this evening, as heights build in on Saturday. The frontal boundary arrives from the northwest, bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast by late afternoon. While mid level winds are light with minimal upper level dynamics in play, weak low level convergence in conjunction with Sfc CAPE values in upwards of 2000 J/KG and weakening inhibition are present by late afternoon. 12Z CAMs remain consistent in isolated convection developing along the boundary, however with effective bulk shear in upwards of 25 kts, main hazard would be brief, gusty winds directly underneath the updraft before quickly dissipating shortly after sunset.
As the next upper trough arrives into the western high plains Saturday evening, models are progged to develop an MCS across northwest KS, potentially impacting far northern Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday morning. These storms should weaken by the time they reach our area so severe weather concerns are low. They may however impact additional CI in the afternoon, altering the environment and creating a more stable airmass.
Focus turns to the severe potential late afternoon and evening Sunday as strong southerly flow lifts sfc dewpoints from the middle 60s into eastern Kansas. While the upper trough vort max approaching from the west is not particularly poignant, strong sfc heating with highs near 90 degrees should aid in steepening low level lapse rates in advance of a dryline setup over central Kansas. Assuming the capping inversion is able to erode which remains in question, scattered severe storms may develop in vicinity of the dryline, entering into northeast Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazards at this point, especially given the slightly higher cloud bases and lack of strong low level moisture advection. Storms appear to cluster into an MCS overnight into Monday morning with some lingering activity anticipated over far eastern Kansas. Uncertainty in convection Monday afternoon and evening is high over northeast Kansas as the inverted sfc trough axis stretches into western KS, effectively forcing a warm front northward into southern NE by the evening. Orientation of the upper trough axis would also suggest severe storm activity remains north of the CWA late Monday evening, depending upon where the frontal boundary ends up.
On Tuesday afternoon, the upper trough axis ejects into the northern plains, forcing a strong cold front into the plains.
Timing of the wave and subsequent position of the front by peak heating varies widely with ensemble guidance. For instance, latest NBM spread of QPF Tuesday evening varies from 0 to 0.70 of rainfall along and east of highway 75. If storms were to impact the area on Tuesday, they would be severe so it is prudent to continue monitor model trends this weekend. Forecast for now maintains modest pops through Wednesday, but do not anticipate a washout or numerous severe storms at this point.
After highs in the 80s through Tuesday, a welcome relief from the heat arrives Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are generally in the middle 70s while overnight lows settle in the lower 50s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions will be the rule. A weak cold front moves through the terminals after 20Z bringing veering winds and some chance for convection. Chances for TSRA impacts are currently too low for a mention.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1242 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated, pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon as a weak front settles into the area.
- Scattered severe storms are possible over portions of north central and northeast Kansas Sunday late afternoon and evening.
- Temperatures heat up to around 90 degrees area wide this weekend into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Broad northwesterly flow aloft passing through the central plains this afternoon while the open shortwave trough axis resides over northern Texas. A very weak perturbation noted sliding through the state may spark an isolated storm in southeast Kansas, however last several runs of the CAMs have centered convection initiating along a a residual boundary towards southern MO so confidence remains low for adding pops this afternoon. The aforementioned shortwave trough shifts east of the region this evening, as heights build in on Saturday. The frontal boundary arrives from the northwest, bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast by late afternoon. While mid level winds are light with minimal upper level dynamics in play, weak low level convergence in conjunction with Sfc CAPE values in upwards of 2000 J/KG and weakening inhibition are present by late afternoon. 12Z CAMs remain consistent in isolated convection developing along the boundary, however with effective bulk shear in upwards of 25 kts, main hazard would be brief, gusty winds directly underneath the updraft before quickly dissipating shortly after sunset.
As the next upper trough arrives into the western high plains Saturday evening, models are progged to develop an MCS across northwest KS, potentially impacting far northern Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday morning. These storms should weaken by the time they reach our area so severe weather concerns are low. They may however impact additional CI in the afternoon, altering the environment and creating a more stable airmass.
Focus turns to the severe potential late afternoon and evening Sunday as strong southerly flow lifts sfc dewpoints from the middle 60s into eastern Kansas. While the upper trough vort max approaching from the west is not particularly poignant, strong sfc heating with highs near 90 degrees should aid in steepening low level lapse rates in advance of a dryline setup over central Kansas. Assuming the capping inversion is able to erode which remains in question, scattered severe storms may develop in vicinity of the dryline, entering into northeast Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazards at this point, especially given the slightly higher cloud bases and lack of strong low level moisture advection. Storms appear to cluster into an MCS overnight into Monday morning with some lingering activity anticipated over far eastern Kansas. Uncertainty in convection Monday afternoon and evening is high over northeast Kansas as the inverted sfc trough axis stretches into western KS, effectively forcing a warm front northward into southern NE by the evening. Orientation of the upper trough axis would also suggest severe storm activity remains north of the CWA late Monday evening, depending upon where the frontal boundary ends up.
On Tuesday afternoon, the upper trough axis ejects into the northern plains, forcing a strong cold front into the plains.
Timing of the wave and subsequent position of the front by peak heating varies widely with ensemble guidance. For instance, latest NBM spread of QPF Tuesday evening varies from 0 to 0.70 of rainfall along and east of highway 75. If storms were to impact the area on Tuesday, they would be severe so it is prudent to continue monitor model trends this weekend. Forecast for now maintains modest pops through Wednesday, but do not anticipate a washout or numerous severe storms at this point.
After highs in the 80s through Tuesday, a welcome relief from the heat arrives Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are generally in the middle 70s while overnight lows settle in the lower 50s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
VFR conditions will be the rule. A weak cold front moves through the terminals after 20Z bringing veering winds and some chance for convection. Chances for TSRA impacts are currently too low for a mention.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMYZ MARYSVILLE MUNI,KS | 7 sm | 22 min | S 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 59°F | 83% | 29.72 |
Topeka, KS,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE