Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yoe, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid to high cloud deck overspreading central and western PA early this morning. Sfc ridge axis building over western and central PA has allowed winds to decrease to a light WSW breeze, allowing sfc temperatures to range from the single digits above and below zero over the north to the 10 to 15F range over southeast PA. With just a bit of wind, early morning chills will range from -5 to -10F across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns and the single digits above zero over the Susquehanna Valley and adjacent south- central zones.

It will be increasingly cloudy throughout the region today, as mid cloud thickens and lowers as low pressure tracks towards the mid Atlantic coast bringing significant snowfall southern Virginia and North Carolina. Higher elevations of Somerset County may see a rogue flurry this afternoon, but otherwise it will be dry in central PA. Temps will increase by only 3-4 deg F compared to Tuesday, but wind chill values will moderate by 10-15 deg F DOD as we head into the afternoon thanks to lighter winds. Highs Wednesday will only reach 15 to 20F over the northern tier, ranging to the mid to upper 20s south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Skies remain cloudy tonight as the sfc low moves offshore and upper level low digs through Ohio and towards western PA by 12z Thu. Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the single digits north and teens south, which is 5 to 10 degrees below late February climo.

Thu forecast on track as a deep 500mb closed low (-2 to -3SD)
tracks over southern PA between 20/0000UTC and 21/0000UTC.
Despite limited moisture, large scale forcing and height falls associated with the deep mid/upper level low should generate enough lift to produce some light/fluffy (dry) snow accumulation (SLR >18-20:1) across central PA beginning before dawn on Thursday and lifting east through the day. Increasing NW flow into Thursday night will enhance upslope snow shower activity over the western and northern Alleghenies with up to 3 inches of powder in the perennial snowbelts, summits, and ski resorts to the west of US-219 ending 12Z Friday. Thursday will be windy and quite cold even by late February standards with max temps 15 to 25 degrees below the historical average and minimum wind chills -10 to +10F. Wind gusts of 25 to 35mph will be common Thursday evening through Friday.

Blustery NW flow continues into early Friday along with snow showers/flurries over the Allegheny Plateau. The wind will gradually diminish into Friday night as high pressure ridge slides into the region. Snowfall and max wind gusts Thursday and Friday are projected to remain below advisory criteria, but could still impact travel, especially over the higher elevations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The arctic punch will moderate by the weekend with temperatures trending warmer/closer to long term averages Saturday-Tuesday thanks to weak ridging aloft and at the surface. Model variability with fast moving/moisture lacking clipper type disturbances in the northern stream will favor low POPs on balance this weekend into early next week. No significant precipitation is expected through Monday, which will be a welcome break after a seemingly incessant batch of winter storms every few days over the last couple of weeks.

By Monday night into Tuesday, another more potent shortwave is progged to drift across Pennsylvania as low pressure passes north of Pennsylvania. Still plenty of time for this system to evolve, but the most likely scenario will be a mix of rain and snow at higher elevations with plain rain favored for elsewhere as temperatures trend above average for the last week in February.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Layered high to mid level clouds will quickly overspread central PA this morning and continue to blanket the airspace through tonight. Flight cats will remain VFR through the 19/06Z TAF period at 6/7 terminals; KBFD is likely to trend to MVFR (>60% chance) by this evening/00Z Thu.

Deep upper level low tracking across PA Thursday will bring widespread MVFR to IFR conditions (>70% chance) in light snow.
25-35kt sfc wind gusts from 300-330 degrees are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon with >50% confidence in IFR snow showers impacting KBFD and KJST.

Outlook...

Fri.. MVFR/IFR at KBFD & KJST (MVFR to low VFR elsewhere). Snow showers and gusty winds diminishing by Friday night.

Sat-Sun...VFR/no sig wx.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.