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FXUS65 KBOU 061202 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 502 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Very mild and dry through Thursday.

- Potential for high winds over Front Range Mountains and Foothills late tonight and Thursday.

- The next system will bring snow and colder temperatures for the mountains and plains for Friday and Friday night.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

A strong thermal ridge persists across the region today. Mostly sunny skies are expected with a few high clouds. Temperatures trend well above normal and for a few cities across the plains, near record highs could occur. With temperatures exceeding guidance yesterday and with a warmer airmass in place today, this forecast package increase afternoon highs 2-4 degrees for the foothills and plains. Never say never but Denver will most likely sit just below the record of 73 in 1939. Tonight, clear skies continue. As the ridge pushes east, pressure gradient tighten allowing strong westerly flow to increase overnight.

In these cases, sometimes guidance isn't able pinpoint the strength of downslope winds into adjacent areas. It is possible overnight tonight into Thursday, parts of the foothills and adjacent urban corridor areas such as Boulder, Loveland, and Louisville could experience wind gusts up to 30-40 mph. Be sure to secure loose holiday objects overnight especially across the mountains and foothills.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

Broad upper level trough will be over the northwest part of the country Thursday with one wave centered over the Dakotas and the other moving across the Pacific Northwest. For Colorado, strong westerly flow aloft will prevail. The jet will be over Wyoming with Colorado under the subsident side of the jet. Cross sections show a mountain forming Thursday, roughly 15-21Z. NAM and HRRR keep the strong winds above 9000 feet, but wouldn't be surprised if they reach the higher foothills (8000-9000 feet MSL). Will keep the High Wind Watch as is, with the possibility of adjusting the times if it needs to be upgrade. Seems the threat is slightly lower with the latest model runs, but not enough to cancel the watch. It will be mild again Thursday with the westerly downslope flow in place. Highs are expected to reach the 60s across northeast Colorado.

The trough over the Pacific Northwest travels southeast and moves across the Central Rockies Friday. Cold front pushes south through the area Thursday night with much cooler temperatures for Friday. This system will bring snow to the mountains beginning late Thursday night and the Urban Corridor and near by plains Friday. Some details still need to be worked out, like the strength and duration of upslope and also the strength of this system. The 00Z suite of models all came in weaker with less snowfall for Friday. Still looks like the Denver Metro area, foothills, and mountains all see a round of snow. Question is how much? At this time, appears to be below Watch/Warning criteria.

For Saturday, weak northwest flow aloft will keep cool air over the region. Other, than a few pockets of light snow in the mountains, expect dry conditions. Northwest flow aloft increases for Sunday as a weak wave travels across the region. This should bring a round of light snow to the mountains. For Monday and Tuesday, northwest flow aloft persists. Not seeing any systems for early next week, but it doesn't take much in northwest flow for the mountains to pick up a little light snow, so will have low PoPs in the forecast. Temperatures will be near normal early next week, with highs in the 40s over northeast Colorado.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 500 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. This morning, winds will shift northeasterly at KAPA and KDEN through this afternoon. It is possible for KBJC to shift southeasterly to easterly through this afternoon. Cloud decks remain at 25k ft through the period. Tonight, winds shift southeasterly increasing in speed near 10kts. Westerly winds will increase at KBJC due to downslope winds starting as early as 05Z into Thursday morning.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for COZ033>036.

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