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FXUS65 KBOU 151734 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1134 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today, with some scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

- Warmer and generally drier starting Thursday, with lesser but at least isolated daily afternoon showers/thunderstorm coverage, highest for the mountains.

- A return to more active weather early next week with a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Upper level trough axis and jet streak are producing showers over far northeast Colorado at this time. The lift and showers will shift east of the state by this afternoon. Subsidence behind the trough is expected to limit showers and storms over the northeast plains this afternoon. The trends with the 12Z models has been for fewer showers and storms over much of northeast Colorado, but more so for the northeast plains. Northeast low level flow will enhance lift in and near the foothills today. Plenty of moisture around this morning as well with dew points in the 40s. The upslope flow and moisture combined with modest instability (500 J/kg) still should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into early evening along the Front Range and Palmer Divide.

SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

The region will be under the influence of upper-level troughing today, with cooler temperatures as a result. Highs will be close to 10 degrees below yesterday's values for the lower elevations, and around 5 degrees cooler in the high country. There will be a few showers around extending along the northern tier of our forecast area this morning, including both the mountains and plains. Instability will be tapered today, but still sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, most numerous after 2 PM. Any thunderstorms today should remain sub- severe, but may produce brief heavy rain and small hail.

Later this evening, a weak front associated with a secondary fast-moving wave carrying a more southward trajectory will advect slightly deeper moisture into the area, and inject more northerly/northeasterly near-surface winds into the plains and urban corridor. This will provide for a slight increase in precipitation coverage for southwestern portions of our forecast area, where shallow upslope flow will favor some local enhancement (mostly the southern foothills/Palmer Divide and adjacent parts of the Denver metro, and also Park County). Under generally stable conditions it would largely come in the form of more stratiform rain and some high elevation snow above ~9,500 ft.
Precipitation intensities shouldn't be too high with this second wave but a few tenths of an inch look likely for a few locations when all is said and done, especially closer to the foothills.
Precipitation will taper off for most areas by midnight though a few lingering showers will be possible overnight across southern Park, Jefferson and Douglas Counties.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

A departing trough along with convergent flow aloft will lead to strong subsidence across norther Colorado on Thursday. The vast majority of our forecast area will remain dry although a few showers and weak storms could form over the higher terrain south of I-70.
Highs will warm to the 70s across the plains in what will be a gorgeous weather day.

Zonal flow aloft will develop on Friday and Saturday as an upper level ridge will influence the weather in Colorado. Subsident flow along with downslope winds will lead to warm conditions. Highs will warm well into the 80s across the plains on Friday with a cold front early Saturday morning keeping highs slightly cooler on Saturday. On Sunday, a return of downslope flow will result in highs well above normal. The warm, dry, and breezy conditions Friday through Sunday will create elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the plains. The only area that may near Red Flag Warning criteria is just south of the Cheyenne Ridge as winds will be strongest there.

A trough will move over the western US during next work week and will stall out. There will be southwesterly flow aloft with numerous shortwave troughs that move across Colorado throughout the week. These troughs will provide forcing for storms to form most afternoons. Models do not show much moisture return to eastern Colorado during the week but if moisture is better than forecast, there will likely be severe thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form after 18Z, most numerous to the west and south of the Denver area.
Cumulus cloud heights will continue to slowly climb with a BKN deck expected around 20Z at around 6000-7000 feet. Threat for storms ends 00-01Z at DEN and slightly later at BJC and APA.
Expect VFR to prevail tonight, though there is a slight threat for pockets of low clouds. Northeast winds to prevail today with gusts to 20 knots developing. Winds become light after 01Z and become southwest by 06Z. Thursday is looking drier with fewer clouds.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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