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FXUS65 KBOU 301056 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 356 AM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with areas of light snow developing over the mountains tonight.

- Mainly light snow continues in the mountains through Sunday morning. Heavier snow is possible near the Wyoming border.

- Windy Saturday through Monday, especially east slopes of the Front Range.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

An upper level trough will move across New Mexico today with SW flow aloft over the area. Cross-sections show quite a bit of mid and high level moisture embedded in the flow, however, lower levels will remain rather dry. Can't completely rule out a slight chc of light snow showers late this aftn over the higher mtns. Meanwhile it will be cooler over nern CO today behind a cold front. Highs across the plains will be mainly in the 35 to 40 degree range.

For tonight, moisture will increase in the mtns overnight with rather weak orographics. Overall, there will be areas of light snow mainly on west facing with only minor accumulations. Across nern CO it will remain dry.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

Clouds will remain over the area Friday as a weak shortwave passes, though QG lift will be weak as the strongest part will pass south of us. There should be some light snow showers continuing over the mountains through the period. Winds aloft aren't that strong, so maybe not enough to kill a few showers that make it east of the foothills late Friday, but there's little risk of anything significant. There may be a bit of a break in the cloud cover Friday night, with clouds and areas of light snow persisting west of the Front Range.

A stronger trough will move over Saturday night. Winds will increase ahead of the trough during the day, with wave clouds likely redeveloping. Strong northwest flow will kick in behind the trough axis early Sunday, and there could be enough flow for a high wind threat from an amplified wave over the Front Range Sunday morning. There should be an increase in the orographic snow over the northern mountains for a while Saturday night into Sunday, and there could be enough lift for a few light showers to make it onto the plains with the trough axis Sunday morning.
Drying should reduce the snow by afternoon, though lighter orographic snow will likely persist into Monday.

There's still some disagreement on the strength/position of another shortwave on Monday. It shouldn't be that strong for us, but the stronger solutions (led by the operational GFS runs) would keep the clouds, wind, and orographic snow going a little longer.
The weaker/further north solutions (led by the operational ECMWF)
would have the wind diminishing with clearing already on Monday.
The operational EC is more aggressive with the ridging/warming from Monday through Wednesday compared to its ensemble.

For now, the NBM is accepted for temperatures, though the early part of next week could be warmer if the ridging is indeed stronger. We'll be warming to near 60 on the plains at a minimum, and possibly mid 60s.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 331 AM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

South winds will continue this morning but then transition to a northeast direction by 18z. Winds will then become more easterly by 21z and then switch to southeast by early evening. Winds overnight will switch to drainage by 06z. VFR conditions will continue today thru tonight.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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