Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Island Heights, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected with the Monday evening high tide cycle along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.

2. High pressure building in will bring fair weather with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday.

3. Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected with the Monday evening high tide cycle along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.

Minor tidal flooding occurred once again this past evening in association with the New Moon that just occurred Sunday. As we remain near the New Moon, at least one more cycle of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with the Monday evening high tide cycle along the Atlantic coast and the Delaware Bay. New Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued as a result. There may also continue be some back bay flooding even this morning around Barnegat Bay so we've ran the Coastal Flood Advisory for Ocean County starting this morning and going right to 2 AM Tuesday.

Beyond Monday, tides will continue remain at least somewhat elevated heading into midweek but will generally trend lower with each cycle.

KEY MESSAGE 2....High pressure building in will bring fair weather with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity levels through Tuesday.

A cold front will be pushing offshore through early this morning with a much drier airmass build in behind it as high pressure moves into the eastern CONUS. Expect mainly sunny to partly cloudy skies for Monday and Tuesday with low humidity levels and highs generally in the upper 70s to near 80. Monday will be a bit breezy with NW winds gusting to around 20 mph at times with lighter winds for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

An upper-level trough centered over south-central Canada is forecast to strengthen eastward and also southward across the Great Lakes to end the week. A strong shortwave rounding the base of this trough may result in a portion of it taking on a negative tilt across the eastern Great Lakes and toward New England late Wednesday and Thursday. This feature is a bit stronger in the ECMWF solution, while the GFS ensembles are mostly a little weaker. A deepening surface low will accompany it and track across the eastern Great Lakes and into adjacent Canada during Thursday. A strong cold front will then arrive into our area Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.

As the synoptic pattern evolves, the flow will increase out of the south and southwest. This will advect deeper moisture northward, and in tandem with strengthening warm air advection will lead to increased instability during the day Thursday. In addition, a strong mid to upper level jet is forecast to extend eastward from the eastern Great Lakes. While the core of the 500 mb jet (80-100 knots)
is forecast to remain mainly northwest of our area, 40-70 knots of flow at 500 mb is still forecast across our area Thursday afternoon into the evening. This increased flow will result in greater shear magnitudes. While there remains some timing differences among the guidance regarding the main features, the consensus is that enough instability should overlap with the stronger shear along with incoming stronger forcing. As a result, there continues to be some severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon and evening. As of now, locally damaging winds are the primary threat especially if convection develops into a squall line. However if shear and instability ends up being even greater, than all severe thunderstorm hazards may come into play especially if the mode is discrete for a time. The details remain much less certain at this time range given the typical uncertainty with instability and the thermodynamic profiles. The forecast synoptic setup however with a deepening surface low tracking to our northwest with strong flow within a warmer and more moist environment suggests some risk for severe thunderstorms. In addition, the main trough may end up arriving on Friday with some additional chances for showers and some thunderstorms.

The I-95 corridor and the coastal plain (away from the immediate coast) looks to be the hottest during Thursday ahead of the convection, with the heat indices potentially getting very close to 100 degrees.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Overnight...Lingering MVFR conditions will improve to VFR between 6 and 9z as a cold front sweeps through the area. As this occurs WSW winds will shift to NW around 10 knots. High confidence.

Monday...VFR with a few/scattered clouds in the afternoon. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt, occasionally gusting up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. Northwest winds diminishing through the evening.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Some sub-VFR conditions with a few showers or a thunderstorm possible.

Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions probable in the afternoon and evening as showers and some thunderstorms increase.

Friday...Some showers and thunderstorms may linger with areas of sub- VFR conditions possible at times.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire but winds will be a bit breezy across the waters through this morning with a brief period of 20-25 knot gusts possible from around day break through the early part of the morning. Otherwise, no marine headlines expected through Monday night. Expect seas generally around 2-4 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Thursday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions probable.
Southerly wind gusts could near gale force for a time later Thursday.
Some gusty thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening possible.

Friday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

For Monday, winds become northwest 10-20 mph with a continued medium southerly swell of 6-7 seconds. With breaking waves 2 feet or less, have gone with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For Tuesday, winds start northerly before shifting southeasterly, but only at around 5 mph with a continued medium southerly swell of 6-7 seconds. With breaking waves 2 feet or less, have gone with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ012>014-021>024-027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ020-026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.