Springfield, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, OH

June 16, 2024 11:48 PM EDT (03:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM
Moonrise 2:59 PM   Moonset 1:35 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 170207 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1007 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Building high pressure aloft will combine with surface pressure increases and a southerly flow in the Ohio Valley to bring an atypically extended period of high temperatures for the coming week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s will be compounded by low temperatures from 70-75, worsening any heat related issues a little more each successive day. Some weak disturbances along with daytime heating may trigger thunderstorm activity on Monday and possibly Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Tranquil conditions continue to reside across the local area, but a surge of LL moisture is advancing to the NNE and will overspread the ILN FA through the latter half of the overnight period. This means that dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s will be replaced by dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s for many locales by sunrise. This surge of LL moisture should inhibit temps from dipping too much, especially late in the night where temps should largely plateau across the area...
generally staying in the upper 60s/lower 70s by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
More than a handful of convective allowing models are showing scattered storms over the CWA in the afternoon and early evening, then rapidly calming down with the setting sun. If storms develop in this weakly sheared atmosphere, they should be short-lived but have a higher than average for strong downburst winds. Outflow boundaries would also have a decent potential for initiating more activity.

High temperatures should reach into the low to mid 90s.
Convective temperatures in 88-90 range will also help to spur development of afternoon storms. Any cooling from outflows and/or thicker cloud cover associated with the storms is probably the best limitations to where these storms remain scattered.

Dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s will create, maximum heat indices will be around 100. This is the bare- minimum heat advisory criteria. Continue to keep the excessive heat watch in favor of new model guidance overnight or potentially early Monday if forecast later tonight is inconclusive. Expect watch to resolve in an advisory or no headline for Monday, but heat messaging is solidly in place.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 70s in west central OH to the lower 70s south of the I-70 corridor into northern KY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
With an anomalously strong high pressure centered to the east through the period, hot temperatures are the main story. Latest model blend shows highs in the low and mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday, rising to the mid and upper 90s Thursday through Saturday, then back to the low and mid 90s Sunday. Apparent temps are a few degrees higher, peaking around 100 in isolated spots. Nighttime readings in the 70s will offer little relief.
Though temps will be borderline for heat headline criteria, the duration of the heat will be a problem. Excessive heat watch remains in effect into Friday evening, while upgrading to heat advisories or warnings may be necessary over the coming days.

Dry weather is expected for the most part. Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon as a shot of moisture and PVA circulates around the high. The threat for showers and storms returns next Sunday when the high is forecast to break down ahead of a trough and cold front. That will leave a dry period from Wednesday through Saturday when the heat may be unimpeded by precipitation and widespread clouds.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly clear skies remain entrenched across the local area, but a FEW VFR Cu will begin to work in from the S toward/beyond 06z on the leading edge of some more robust LL moisture, with additional SCT/BKN diurnally-driven VFR Cu development by/after 15z. Some ISO/SCT convection is expected to develop near/after 18z, initially around KCVG/KLUK before activity develops elsewhere and expands/spreads to the NE through the afternoon.
Activity should be very disorganized/cellular in nature, so challenges involving pinpointing timing and location at this juncture yield enough uncertainty that decided to keep the TAFs dry for now, even with the expectation for ISO/SCT storms for the afternoon. A VCTS or TEMPO group will likely eventually be warranted as details become a bit more clear.

Light southerly flow through the morning hours will become more out of the SW by/after 15z at around 7-9kts or so. Some highly- localized gusty winds are expected with convection that develops during the afternoon, but such occurrences will be handled with amendments as needed. Some river valley BR/FG will be possible at KLUK as a surge of LL moisture arrives past 06z, leading to the potential for some MVFR VSBYs at the site in the several hours around daybreak.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Friday evening for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088.
KY...None.
IN...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Friday evening for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.




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Wilmington, OH,




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