NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS61 KILN 012305 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 605 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Slow moving low pressure system keeps light rain in the forecast through Friday night. Mild air mass remains in place through the weekend with drier conditions favored on Saturday. Weather pattern becomes unsettled for the second half of the weekend as another system provides a chance for rain, followed by a slight cooldown heading into the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
The heaviest axis of rainfall has exited the ILN fa. Slow moving low pressure system will gradually work its way through the Midwest region today and tonight. Bufkit soundings continue to highlight ample low level moisture trapped in the lowest several thousand feet. This moisture, combined with the weak forcing from the low pressure, will lead to periods of light rain/drizzle through today and the beginning of the overnight hours.

Given the lack of change in air masses, overnight lows tonight only drop a couple of degrees, with most of our CWA observing lows in the middle 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The forecast is favored to trend drier through the daylight hours across our CWA on Saturday. Temperatures continue to trend above seasonal normals even with skies remaining mostly cloudy throughout the day.

As we head into Saturday evening, a low pressure system to the south will push moisture up into our northern KY and southern OH counties. CAMs are differing a bit in the timing and coverage of these rain showers, but some rain could be observed as early as Saturday afternoon across our south. Better rain chances arrive Saturday night, increasing in coverage for Sunday with the shortwave moving through. Best coverage in rain Saturday night will be SE of I-71.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A shortwave will be lifting through the Ohio Valley Sunday, causing a period of steady light rain. This disturbance exits to the northeast by late in the day. Next, the pattern begins to shift from southwesterly mid-level flow to northwesterly as the longwave trough shifts east through our region late Monday.

The next decent signal of precipitation will arrive as a disturbance drops southeast into the Southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. While deep moisture isn't currently progged to accompany the system, can't rule out some rain ahead of the surface wave Tuesday afternoon.

Surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for a period of dry weather.

Temperatures will begin the period mild in the southwesterly flow regime before cooling off early next week. Some warming will occur again late in the week as the surface high pushes east and southerly flow returns.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An abundance of low level moisture will remain for the TAF period. For tonight, a weak low pressure system will pass to the northwest leading to persistent light shower activity until at least 0600z. LIFR/IFR conditions likely remain in place across most of the sites until around 0600z along with the sprinkles/showers. After 0600z, ceilings may lift into the MVFR category for the rest of the TAF period in the wake of the weak low. IFR and MVFR visibilities should show at least some improvements towards the VFR category later tonight as models and surface observations show only scattered visibility reductions to the southwest.

Southerly winds veer to the southwest tonight and stay in the 5-10 knot range. Winds likely weaken and veer to the west after 1200z Saturday before becoming light and variable Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, OH,