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FXUS61 KILN 131057 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 657 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure and dry air will move off to the east today. Low pressure tracking from the west will provide unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather returns Thursday with high pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pressure centered near the mid Atlantic Coast is forecast to keep mainly dry weather over the ILN area today. Mid and high moisture advection will allow increasing clouds. There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in far southwest counties late this afternoon as low level moisture and instability support isolated convective development there.
Winds from the south gusting to 20 mph this afternoon will help boost high temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s, 5 to 7 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Low pressure will be getting organized over Missouri tonight, before reaching Western Kentucky by late Tuesday. As moisture and lift increase in the circulation ahead of the low, showers will begin to impact the area tonight, with showers and a few thunderstorms becoming widespread Tuesday afternoon. Have backed off on timing of widespread showers relative to previous model runs. Severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low due to weak shear and relatively low CAPE under 1000 J/KG. Slow moving cells, favorable thermodynamic profiles showing tall skinny CAPE, and ample PWAT point to the possibility of heavy downpours.

After mild lows around 60 tonight, readings reaching the near normal low and mid 70s on Tuesday will be limited by clouds and precip.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper low over Illinois at the beginning of the period will track east and be off the mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday night.
Associated surface low will move across Kentucky, passing just south of the forecast area. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms, particularly Tuesday night while the upper system is over the area.
Precipitable water is forecast to rise to around 150 percent of normal and weak wind fields will mean that individual precipitation elements may not move much. So this could lead to some locally heavy rainfall, although global ensemble systems have rather modest probabilities of 1 inch or more of rain within 24 hours.

Heading into Wednesday, coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will likely decrease on the back side of the system, although diurnal component will keep chances through the afternoon.
However, activity should quickly diminish by early Wednesday evening.

High pressure will briefly build in for Thursday. But next trough will already be approaching. Looks like a northern stream short wave will pass across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with lingering positively tilted trough extending into the southern Plains will more gradually slide east. So surface low will track north of the area, but trailing cold front will be somewhat slow to pass through Thursday night through Friday night. There will be more showers and thunderstorms associated with that. In the wake of this system, high pressure will build in over the weekend.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be near normal. Otherwise, the period will be characterized by slightly above normal readings with the warmest days being over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Conditions will remain VFR through the early part of the forecast as high pressure and dry air move east. Clouds will increase through today while ceilings remain VFR. Winds from the south will rise to 10 to 13 knots, with gusts around 20 knots possible this afternoon.

Conditions deteriorate quickly late in the forecast thanks to low pressure advancing from the west. As moisture and lift increase tonight, VCSH followed by -SHRA are forecast at all sites. Once near surface air saturates, ceilings drop to MVFR, and then IFR at CVG and LUK. Slight improvement back to MVFR is possible at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Kept TS out for now due to isolated nature.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible with thunderstorms Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with thunderstorms Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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