Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Millbourne, PA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne, PA

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 050531 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 131 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
An upper low will linger across the Northeast through this week.
Surface high pressure will build to our northwest into Monday, then a cold front arrives Tuesday afternoon with a chance of showers.
The closed low the begins to pull away on Friday and high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Going through the overnight, the center of the closed low over New England will drift a little closer to the local area and this is maintaining some mid level clouds. These clouds are anticipated to thin out with time. The winds will be mostly light and variable for many places, and temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s to low 50s.

The upper-level low will then gradually drift off to the east through Monday, allowing for a surface high across Hudson Bay to extend southeastward over the Great Lakes and lean into the Mid Atlantic region to provide a mostly dry and warm period.
Temperatures will warm nicely on Monday with mid to upper 70s with a few locations reaching 80, which is near climo for early June. Could see a few mid and upper level clouds develop as a weak shortwave pivots around the upper low and overhead, but forecast is expected to remain dry during the day Monday. Modest daytime heating will likely allow for a seabreeze to develop in the afternoon which will easily overcome the light NW flow across the region during the day, helping it keep cooler near the immediate coast where afternoon highs will stay in the upper 60s to low 70s. A stronger shortwave will begin to drop southward around the upper low and approach the region by the end of the day, setting up a slightly better chance for some showers in the short term.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An omega block looks to hold tight through the short term period as one deep upper low continues to dig across Baja California while the other, that has been influencing our region for the past several days, still meanders around Nova Scotia. A few showers may slide northwest to southeast across the area Monday night into Tuesday morning in tandem with a passing upper wave, but don't expect widespread coverage. On Tuesday, a stronger upper level wave will move southward across Quebec and through the base of the closed low allowing a cold front to sag south through the region in the afternoon. Moisture appears limited as per usual on the western side of these features with dry north/northwesterly flow, but a some showers cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Tuesday night with the forcing from the surface front and vorticity advection, therefore maintained slight chance to chance PoPs (25-40%) with the highest values across northern and eastern NJ where best moisture looks to reside.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than the previous day's right near 80 degrees. Some modest cold advection will ensue on the back side of the front and expect lows Tuesday night to dip into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Surface high pressure centered near Hudson Bay will start to build southward some through Wednesday, however we will remain under large scale cyclonic flow and a cooler regime owing to the persistent low to our northeast. With the gradient remaining northwest to southeast across the area, expect the environmental flow will work against an inland pushing sea breeze. A few showers may be possible (20-30% chance) again in the afternoon, mainly near/northwest of I-95. Highs will be in the upper 60s for higher elevations with mid to upper 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Thursday, a potent shortwave will slide south through the Great Lakes and quickly reach into the Tennessee Valley by afternoon.
Deterministic guidance wants to develop a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas in response with generally good ensemble support, though with temporal and spatial differences at this point.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will rotate around the still present low to our northeast and bring a renewed chance for showers across our region in the afternoon. This trough may have a bit more moisture and upper support to work with, so favored the slightly higher NBM PoPs (30-40%). The extent of cloud cover and showers may impact high temperatures, but thinking mid to upper 70s areawide.

Friday, the closed low finally looks to begin to pull away, but it will still leave some troughiness/shortwaves behind as it exits.
Surface high pressure will continue to build further south and east, but a few showers again look possible (20% chance) as upper energy rotates through/a sea breeze can focus convergence. The aforementioned surface low off the coast of the Carolinas looks to slide far enough to our south to not be impactful, but we will have to wait for more agreement across the suite of guidance over the coming days. Highs through the end of the week are forecast in the mid-upper 70s, right around or just below climatology.

Into the weekend, ensemble 500 mb heights rise as do thicknesses with good agreement in the break down of the blocking pattern and departure of the closed low, so a warmup is possible with high pressure sliding closer overhead. The warmer day may be Sunday as flow turns southwesterly.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

KILG...There continues to be a comms issue preventing observations from being transmitted. AMD NOT SKED included in the KILG TAF until the observations are transmitting again.

Overnight...VFR, with ceilings between 5000-8000 feet mainly at KTTN and KPNE scattering out. Light and variable to locally calm winds. Moderate confidence.

Monday...VFR, with scattered/broken cloud coverage between about 5000-8000 feet especially in the afternoon. Light and variable winds becoming northwest 8-12 knots then west-northwest later in the afternoon. The winds at KACY should become southwesterly later in the afternoon. Some local gusts of 15-20 knots possible during the late morning to mid afternoon. Low confidence if a sea breeze makes it to KACY toward late afternoon.

Monday night...VFR with clouds thinning out. Northwest to west- northwest winds (southwest at KACY) diminishing to around 5 knots early, then becoming mostly light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Predominantly VFR, but some passing showers or a thunderstorm may bring temporary sub-VFR restrictions. Wind becoming northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots behind a cold front. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday-Friday...Prevailing VFR, though the chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon may bring temporary sub-VFR restrictions. Northwesterly wind 10-15 knots relaxing to 5-10 knots at night. Low confidence in coverage of precipitation, high confidence in overall prevailing conditions.

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA criteria Monday. Seas 3-4 feet with light NNW flow around 10 kts early, becoming SSW in the afternoon with the development of a sea breeze.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Friday...No marine headlines expected. Northwesterly wind around 10 knots may become southerly for a time with developing afternoon sea breezes mainly on Thursday and Friday. Seas 2-3 feet.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow continues, but we are expecting a shift to offshore by late Monday. We are expecting widespread minor coastal/tidal flooding with the high tide this evening/overnight on the coast, Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River, and the high tide Monday morning on portions of the upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

The shift to off shore flow may come to late to have much impact for the high tide Monday evening/night. Similar astronomical high tides again Monday could mean yet another round of minor coastal flooding in spots with the Monday night high tide, though confidence is lower on this occurrence. We will continue to monitor the latest trends in guidance and observations and make forecast adjustments as necessary.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ012>014-020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...None.

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Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ

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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania

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