Thursday, November14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millbourne, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:47PM Thursday November 14, 2019 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 943 Pm Est Thu Nov 14 2019
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw late. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers. A chance of showers late.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 943 Pm Est Thu Nov 14 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure off the new england coast will shift northeastward through tonight. A cold front will drop southward into the area Friday night with high pressure building to our north. Low pressure will develop off the southeast coast on Friday, moving slowly east northeast into the weekend, remaining well off the coast. Another coastal system may track northward off the carolina coast once again toward the middle portion of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millbourne , PA
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location: 39.96, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 150216
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
916 pm est Thu nov 14 2019

Synopsis
High pressure off the new england coast will shift northeastward
through tonight. A cold front will drop southward into the area
Friday night with high pressure building to our north. Low
pressure will develop off the southeast coast on Friday, moving
slowly east northeast into the weekend, remaining well off the
coast. Another coastal system may track northward off the
carolina coast once again toward the middle portion of next
week.

Near term until 7 am Friday morning
Surface high pressure centered off the new england coast will
lift northeastward overnight as a weak frontal boundary nears
the ohio valley region.

A mid to upper trough will dig southward into the oh tn valleys
as a frontal boundary develops along the eastern seaboard
tonight. As WAA increases along the mid-atlantic, a broad area
of low pressure develops along the aforementioned boundary,
spreading precipitation northward. The models continue to show
an area of precipitation skirting DELMARVA and southern new
jersey late tonight, keeping the bulk of the precipitation to
our south. Continue to mention a slight chance chance of showers
overnight into the early morning. On the northern fringes of
the precip shield, low level temperatures could favor some very
light wintry precip, but with marginal temps and limited qpf,
do not anticipate that much, if any, wintry precip will reach
the ground. With plentiful mid to upper level clouds persisting
in a WAA regime, temperatures will be a touch warmer, ranging
from the 20s across our northern zones to the low to middle 30s
elsewhere.

Made some adjustments to the temperatures and dew points mostly
as some warming has occurred as the cloud cover has increased
this evening. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be on track for
tonight.

Short term 7 am Friday morning through Friday night
Low pressure is expected to develop off the southeast coast
on Friday, as the frontal boundary along the coast nudges
eastward. Locally, any precipitation will come to an end early
Friday morning as drier west northwesterly winds develop. This
will lead to dry conditions and a decrease in cloud cover
throughout the day, although still expecting some high clouds
as the upper jet takes its time to exit to the northeast.

Temperatures on Friday will moderate again, extending well into
the 40s to lower 50s. A dry cold front will push southward from
the great lakes region Friday night, weakening as it settles to
our south Saturday morning, and strong canadian high pressure
builds to our north. This will result in an increasing pressure
gradient and an uptick in northerly breezes by daybreak
Saturday. Lows Friday night will fall back into the 20s to
lower 30s as CAA commences.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Dry and mostly clear throughout the day on Saturday, as high
pressure builds into the northeast u.S. This will result in cooler
than average temperatures across the forecast area, with highs into
the mid 40s. Cold conditions continue into Saturday night as well,
with overnight lows in the mid 20s inland, and low to mid 30s along
the coast.

The forecast becomes trickier for the end of the weekend into
next week. Friday into Saturday a potent upper level system
will move through the SE CONUS and spawn a strong coastal storm
developing off the SE coast. This storm will then begin to drift
slowly north by Sunday. However its northward progress will be
impeded by strong high pressure over the northeast. The upshot
is that by Sunday some moisture from this slow moving ocean
storm will be trying to work northwestward towards the area and
could bring some light precip mainly to areas S E of the i-95
corridor. Elsewhere clouds will at least be on the increase
leading to a mostly cloudy day across the region. The other
story will be the winds as NE winds will be increasing due to
the pressure gradient between the ocean storm to our south and
the strong high to our north. NE winds along the coast may reach
20-30 mph with some higher gusts possible. These onshore winds
will also bring a threat of coastal flooding and this is
detailed in the tidal section below. Highs Sunday will be
mostly in the 40s so it will be a cool, raw, day.

Uncertainty in the track and evolution of the storm off the
coast increases as we head into next week. The GFS kicks the
storm north and east fairly quickly and also keeps it far enough
east to spare us much precip. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and the gem
swing another strong upper level disturbance around the base of
the long wave trough over the east and indicate this feature
will tend to capture at least a piece of this storm bringing
more widespread, and potentially heavier precip into the region
by Monday. Given the consensus of these two models and that they
can tend to perform quite well in these types of cases pops were
raised for Monday. For most of the region any precip should be
mostly rain but the other fly in the ointment will be the
coolish airmass this precip would be moving into and this could
result in some wintry precip over northern parts of the cwa
towards the southern poconos and NW nj. Given that marine air
may tend to move in over this cooler air in place these areas
that get wintry precip in the north could see some sleet or
freezing rain. But again, this is several days out so confidence
in these details is low at this point. It's possible precip from
this system could even linger into next Tuesday and Wednesday
but any that remains should be trending lighter by this point
with the trend being towards drier weather for the middle to
end of next week.

Overall, temperatures will be colder than average through the
long range but trending warmer by next Wednesday and Thursday.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Light and variable winds. Some rain may move
through kacy and possibly kmiv between 06-12z with brief
restrictions possible. High confidence with low confidence that
sub-vfr conditions occur at kmiv kacy.

Friday and Friday night...VFR. Winds turn wnw on Friday,
around 5 to 10 knots.VFR continues Friday night, with winds
picking up out of the northeast, gusting upwards of 15-20kts by
daybreak Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR ceilings seem likely for the
most part, though a lingering coastal low pressure system just
offshore on Sunday could bring some MVFR ceilings, and possibly some
rain, into the region, particularly along the coast. Winds from the
northeast at 10-15 knots on Saturday, gusting up to 25 knots inland.

Stronger winds along the coast (kacy) as well, with gust in the 30-
40 knot range possible (lower confidence). Gusty winds continue into
Sunday as well, continued out of the northeast at 10-15 knots,
gusting up to 25 knots.

Monday and Tuesday... Rain from a coastal storm could affect the
region and also bring sub-vfr conditions. However winds should
tend to decrease during this period and be out of the north at
around 10 knots or less.

Marine
High pressure centered off of new england will drift
northeastward tonight while sub SCA conditions prevail, and seas
hover around 2 to 3 feet. Winds remain 15 knots or less on
Friday, before the gradient increases Friday night as strong
high pressure builds to our northwest and low pressure off the
southeast coast strengthens. SCA to borderline gale conditions
likely to develop Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... Gale force winds are quite possible
Saturday through Sunday, as an area of coastal low pressure
moves along the east coast, remaining well offshore. A gale
watch has been issued for all areas except for the upper
delaware bay late Friday night through late Saturday night.

Monday and Tuesday... Winds should diminish some into Monday, but
small craft advisory conditions are still likely. Winds begin to
diminish Monday night into Tuesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Northeast winds will increase through the weekend due to a strong
coastal storm to our south. This long fetch will result in a
piling up of water along the coast with at least minor coastal
flooding becoming likely in places in nj and de along the
atlantic coast and delaware bay by Sunday's high tide cycle.

It's possible some points could even reach moderate flooding but
this is still several days out so confidence in the details of
how high the tide gets is not high at this point.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night
for anz431-450>455.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf meola
short term... Bkf
long term... Cjl fitzsimmons
aviation... Bkf cjl fitzsimmons meola
marine... Bkf cjl
tides coastal flooding... Fitzsimmons


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 3 mi47 min 40°F 48°F1026.3 hPa
BDSP1 6 mi47 min 40°F 1026.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi47 min 39°F 51°F1026.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 18 mi47 min Calm G 1 37°F 43°F1026.3 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 26 mi47 min S 1.9 G 1.9 36°F 43°F1027 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 34 mi47 min SW 1.9 G 2.9 38°F 49°F1027 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 35 mi47 min 37°F 51°F1026.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi47 min S 1 G 1.9 33°F 48°F1027.3 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 46 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 8 44°F 51°F1028 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 48 mi47 min SW 1 35°F 1028 hPa34°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA6 mi23 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F28°F67%1027.1 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA12 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair37°F27°F67%1027.3 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA13 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair32°F28°F87%1026.4 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ18 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair33°F27°F78%1026.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHL

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5SE7E6SE5SE4SE4CalmE3E3S6S8S10SW10S10SW10SW11SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Market Street Bridge, Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania
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Market Street Bridge
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Thu -- 02:14 AM EST     5.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:38 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:28 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:24 PM EST     6.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:10 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.95.45.24.43.52.61.81.10.50.62.24.35.76.26.25.54.53.62.71.80.90.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Thu -- 03:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:11 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:03 PM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:22 PM EST     -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:58 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.210.2-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.6-1.4-1.1-0.31.11.81.51.10.4-0.6-1.4-1.6-1.8-1.8-1.7-1.20

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.