Tall Timber, CO Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tall Timber, CO

March 4, 2024 2:34 AM MST (09:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 5:58 PM
Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 11:13 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timber, CO
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Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 040557 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1057 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow, blowing snow, and hazardous travel conditions remain in the mountains tonight, gradually improving Monday.

- There will be a daily chance of snow in the mountains during the work week. By Thursday and Friday, precipitation will be possible across the plains as well. The heaviest mountain snowfall during the work week will fall on Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE
Issued at 910 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

Radars and cameras are showing the snow continuing over the mountains this evening. This is a batch of weak convection over the far eastern plains, but not sure any hydrometers are hitting the ground in those areas due to the dry airmass in place. There is a pretty uniform low level wind field in place over the plains this evening, with north-northeasterly to north-northeasterly winds at 15 to 30 mph. Over the far eastern plains there have some gusts to 40 mph.

Models keep most of the eastern plains in upslope flow overnight tonight. The low level airmass is progged to stay pretty dry nevertheless. For this update, will make minor adjustments to the pop, sky, wind and temperature GFE grids; mostly based on real data.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

Current surface analysis shows surface low pressure in southeast Colorado, but a rather convoluted wind pattern with pockets of gusty west/southwest winds across the plains and I-25 Corridor.
The stronger winds were finally starting to become more widespread, with the strongest winds and peak gusts of 35-45 mph over the southern Denver suburbs and Palmer Divide. Those gusty winds will relax this evening as we lose our daytime heating and mixing.
Meanwhile, snow continues in the mountains but overall intensities have been limited today by slight warm advection and west/southwest flow.

We still expect an uptick in mountain snowfall this evening with cold advection and deepening moisture profile. In addition, strong frontogenesis is developing over the northern border area and we'll be getting into the right rear entrance region of an upper level speed max. This would put the northern mountains in favorable ageostrophic motion - although it was interesting to see there wasn't much of this shown in the cross sections.
Nonetheless, the cold advection and deeper moisture should be enough to support widespread light to moderate snow overnight into Monday morning. In addition, winds will be strong enough for more blowing and drifting snow, and hazardous travel conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches expected in the mountains, with another 2 to 4 inches in valley locations through tomorrow. There was some consideration to extend the winter highlights longer into tomorrow, but with west/southwest flow and moisture shallowing out again, we think most accumulations after mid/late morning will be relatively light. Thus, current highlights still run until 9 am Monday.

For the plains, isolated showers could spill eastward this evening and overnight considering the proximity of the upper level jet and f-gen. Odds would favor the northern border area, with mostly virga around Denver. A cold front is expected to push across the plains overnight. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures for Monday, and also lighter winds for a change as we expect a Denver cyclone pattern to set up.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

Daily mountain snow is possible through the extended forecast period. While subsident flow will move in on Monday night with an upper level trough lifting to the north, the main event for the week looks to evolve around the trough currently lingering off the west coast. Before the trough arrival later in the week, the mountains will have enough moisture and instability (sounding analysis indicates conditionally unstable lapse rates both days)
to support some light orographic snowfall Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as a weak shortwave passes over the forecast area.
Accumulations are expected to be minimal with ensembles in agreement for totals staying under 4 inches for both days combined. Temperatures will increase through Wednesday across the plains reaching the upper 50s in some locations before a short cool down Thursday and Friday.

Regarding the approaching trough, models have yet to agree on the track of the system, but they are showing better agreement with the timing. This is a tricky pattern to unravel with broad troughing aloft and what looks to be a split flow forming within it. This will result in a closed low heading to the north and another to the south, skirting around Colorado. The southern route will be the one to watch for our forecast region. The ECMWF and GFS show the main synoptic forcing staying to the south of us, but the Canadian shows them closer to home. The southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will at least transport some Pacific moisture into Colorado on Thursday and Friday where mountain orographics will wring it out in the form of snow. Friday will see a shortwave pulse embedded within the front edge of a highly amplified ridge that could bring some precipitation to the plains. The pattern becomes less messy with the arrival of the previously mentioned ridge by Saturday. This will bring warmer and drier conditions for the weekend.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

SE/ESE winds at the terminals late this evening. Winds become more SE overnight, holding through Monday morning. There is still potential for lower ceilings around 12z, but should still stay VFR. There is sufficient confidence in winds increasing into the afternoon and developing a more easterly component at 10-15 kts.
Most high resolution models are hinting at the development of a Denve cyclone wind circulation in the afternoon. This will lower confidence in wind direction, mainly at BJC and APA since the track of the circulation isn't as certain. If the circulation tracks east of those terminals, this could put them at a more N/NW component for a period in the mid/late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024

Critical fire weather conditions over the northern and eastern plains will ease through early this evening. Humidity is already starting to improve from west to east, and winds will follow suit with the loss of daytime heating and mixing. That should do it for the critical fire weather conditions this week with generally lighter winds for the lower elevations starting Monday.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Monday for COZ030-032.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MST Monday for COZ031-033-034.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBDU BOULDER MUNI,CO 7 sm19 minSSE 0910 smOvercast Lt Snow 32°F16°F51%29.79
KBJC ROCKY MOUNTAIN METROPOLITAN,CO 11 sm19 minS 0610 smClear30°F16°F55%29.80
KEIK ERIE MUNI,CO 15 sm19 minS 0610 smOvercast30°F18°F59%29.80
KLMO VANCE BRAND,CO 16 sm19 minS 087 smOvercast Lt Snow 34°F19°F55%29.82
Link to 5 minute data for KBDU


Wind History from BDU
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