Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tall Timber, CO
February 18, 2025 8:08 PM MST (03:08 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 182311 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 411 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Moderate snow bands may produce up to 6" of snow in northern Larimer and Weld Counties tonight. Hazardous travel is expected on I-25 near the Wyoming border.
- Bitter cold through Wednesday night for the lower elevations with wind chills as low as -30 F.
- Another system will bring more snow to the mountains Thursday through Friday with a chance of snow across the rest of the area.
- Warming trend on the plains from Thursday into the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 351 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
Low clouds and mist/haze has persisted over the majority of the eastern plains today. Akron and other places in Logan, Phillips, and Sedgwick Counties remain below 0 F with wind chills as low as -27 F.
Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over Colorado with a weak shortwave trough near Grand Teton National Park. There is also an upper level jet streak associated with this feature with far northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming under the left exit region.
These two features along with moderate mid level lapse rates around 8.5 C/km, are providing forcing that is generating the snow showers in the same region. Given this forcing, there are convective snow showers and snow bands that have developed which are producing brief moderate snow at the surface. These bands will continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. High resolution model guidance is in good agreement that there will be bands of snow with up to 6" amounts. However, the models have very little agreement on the location of these heavier bands. Some models keep the bands very close to the CO/WY and CO/NE borders. Other models like the HRRR, put the heaviest band over Fort Collins and Greeley. The most likely scenario is that these bands stay up closer to the border and places like Grover and Carr will see the heaviest amounts up to 6".
Therefore, Winter Weather Advisories were issued for northern Larimer and Weld Counties as well as Morgan and Logan Counties.
Greeley and the rest of southern Weld County was kept out of the advisory as the band is supposed to stay mostly north of that area.
With that being said, that area will need to be watched closely and if the band moves south into that area, an advisory may need to be put out quickly.
The Denver metro, Palmer Divide, and east-central plains will only see very light flurries with minimal accumulation. It is still possible roads are slick tomorrow morning given the continued mist/haze. Rime ice may especially make bridges icy.
During the day tomorrow, the shortwave trough will move past Colorado and ridging will begin to move in. This will lead to subsident flow and conditions will dry out and clouds will clear by the end of the day.
Very cold temperatures are still on track tonight as the brunt of the arctic airmass will be over northeast Colorado. Lows may reach the negative teens in and to the northeast of a line from Akron to Sterling. Wind chill values will drop to as low as -30 F there.
There will be some moderation of temperatures along the I-25 corridor. Downtown Denver and Boulder are expected to be around 0 F with wind chills as low as -10 F. Easterly winds throughout the day tomorrow will keep conditions cold. However, warm air advection aloft will begin to moderate temperatures slightly.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 351 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
We are expecting one more night of very cold temperatures across the plains on Wednesday as the high pressure over southern Canada keeps the arctic air mass flowing into eastern Colorado. Things still look on track to see the cold air retreat eastward through the morning Thursday with surface flow shifting to the south. By the afternoon, temperatures should warm into the 20s for locations closest to the foothills, with a gradient of colder temperatures as you move east across the plains. Our most northern corner will be the last area to warm, with high temperatures expected to struggle to climb much out of the single digits.
With regards to precipitation Wednesday night, with a jet streak still straddling the northeastern corner of the state and a swath of mid-level frontogenesis just to the north and east, have kept a slight chance for light snow/flurries over these areas.
By Thursday morning, we will see a return of westerly flow aloft and another shortwave approaching from the west ushering in Pacific moisture. There are some slight discrepancies with specifics remaining amongst guidance, but enough agreement that we expect another round of mountain snow to begin by Thursday afternoon.
This will not be anything close to our last dose of mountain snow, but a few inches are expected, mainly for elevations above 8,000', with some lighter accumulations spilling onto the plains by Thursday evening. We could see some slick conditions for the Thursday evening commute along the urban and I-70 corridors, but don't anticipate needing any highlights with this system.
By Friday evening, we will see something we haven't for a while across northern Colorado... prolonged drying conditions! Temperatures are expected to gradually warm through the weekend, with the beginning of next week feeling more like spring as ensembles show high temperatures across the plains making their way into the mid 60s, and 40s for the mountains.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/
Issued at 1155 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
The low clouds and visibility will likely stick around for a while as there will not be enough mixing to mix out this arctic cold air. However, there will be some improvement in visibility as the thickness of the cloud deck diminishes.
There is still uncertainty as to how far south the bands of snow will make it tonight. Right now, the high resolution model data keeps the bands just to the north of DEN and BJC and this has been consistent for many runs. Therefore, VCSH was kept in the TAFs as the snow showers will likely be close to the terminals but not over them. If snow showers were to move over the terminals, visibility could reach as low as 1 SM.
The low clouds will likely stick around for much of the day tomorrow as easterly winds will be persistent. Warm air advection aloft with drying throughout the low to mid level layer will eventually scatter out the low clouds. Therefore, the ceilings will break around 19-22Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for COZ038-042- 044-048.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ042-044- 046>049.
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ050-051.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 411 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Moderate snow bands may produce up to 6" of snow in northern Larimer and Weld Counties tonight. Hazardous travel is expected on I-25 near the Wyoming border.
- Bitter cold through Wednesday night for the lower elevations with wind chills as low as -30 F.
- Another system will bring more snow to the mountains Thursday through Friday with a chance of snow across the rest of the area.
- Warming trend on the plains from Thursday into the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 351 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
Low clouds and mist/haze has persisted over the majority of the eastern plains today. Akron and other places in Logan, Phillips, and Sedgwick Counties remain below 0 F with wind chills as low as -27 F.
Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over Colorado with a weak shortwave trough near Grand Teton National Park. There is also an upper level jet streak associated with this feature with far northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming under the left exit region.
These two features along with moderate mid level lapse rates around 8.5 C/km, are providing forcing that is generating the snow showers in the same region. Given this forcing, there are convective snow showers and snow bands that have developed which are producing brief moderate snow at the surface. These bands will continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. High resolution model guidance is in good agreement that there will be bands of snow with up to 6" amounts. However, the models have very little agreement on the location of these heavier bands. Some models keep the bands very close to the CO/WY and CO/NE borders. Other models like the HRRR, put the heaviest band over Fort Collins and Greeley. The most likely scenario is that these bands stay up closer to the border and places like Grover and Carr will see the heaviest amounts up to 6".
Therefore, Winter Weather Advisories were issued for northern Larimer and Weld Counties as well as Morgan and Logan Counties.
Greeley and the rest of southern Weld County was kept out of the advisory as the band is supposed to stay mostly north of that area.
With that being said, that area will need to be watched closely and if the band moves south into that area, an advisory may need to be put out quickly.
The Denver metro, Palmer Divide, and east-central plains will only see very light flurries with minimal accumulation. It is still possible roads are slick tomorrow morning given the continued mist/haze. Rime ice may especially make bridges icy.
During the day tomorrow, the shortwave trough will move past Colorado and ridging will begin to move in. This will lead to subsident flow and conditions will dry out and clouds will clear by the end of the day.
Very cold temperatures are still on track tonight as the brunt of the arctic airmass will be over northeast Colorado. Lows may reach the negative teens in and to the northeast of a line from Akron to Sterling. Wind chill values will drop to as low as -30 F there.
There will be some moderation of temperatures along the I-25 corridor. Downtown Denver and Boulder are expected to be around 0 F with wind chills as low as -10 F. Easterly winds throughout the day tomorrow will keep conditions cold. However, warm air advection aloft will begin to moderate temperatures slightly.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 351 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
We are expecting one more night of very cold temperatures across the plains on Wednesday as the high pressure over southern Canada keeps the arctic air mass flowing into eastern Colorado. Things still look on track to see the cold air retreat eastward through the morning Thursday with surface flow shifting to the south. By the afternoon, temperatures should warm into the 20s for locations closest to the foothills, with a gradient of colder temperatures as you move east across the plains. Our most northern corner will be the last area to warm, with high temperatures expected to struggle to climb much out of the single digits.
With regards to precipitation Wednesday night, with a jet streak still straddling the northeastern corner of the state and a swath of mid-level frontogenesis just to the north and east, have kept a slight chance for light snow/flurries over these areas.
By Thursday morning, we will see a return of westerly flow aloft and another shortwave approaching from the west ushering in Pacific moisture. There are some slight discrepancies with specifics remaining amongst guidance, but enough agreement that we expect another round of mountain snow to begin by Thursday afternoon.
This will not be anything close to our last dose of mountain snow, but a few inches are expected, mainly for elevations above 8,000', with some lighter accumulations spilling onto the plains by Thursday evening. We could see some slick conditions for the Thursday evening commute along the urban and I-70 corridors, but don't anticipate needing any highlights with this system.
By Friday evening, we will see something we haven't for a while across northern Colorado... prolonged drying conditions! Temperatures are expected to gradually warm through the weekend, with the beginning of next week feeling more like spring as ensembles show high temperatures across the plains making their way into the mid 60s, and 40s for the mountains.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/
Issued at 1155 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025
The low clouds and visibility will likely stick around for a while as there will not be enough mixing to mix out this arctic cold air. However, there will be some improvement in visibility as the thickness of the cloud deck diminishes.
There is still uncertainty as to how far south the bands of snow will make it tonight. Right now, the high resolution model data keeps the bands just to the north of DEN and BJC and this has been consistent for many runs. Therefore, VCSH was kept in the TAFs as the snow showers will likely be close to the terminals but not over them. If snow showers were to move over the terminals, visibility could reach as low as 1 SM.
The low clouds will likely stick around for much of the day tomorrow as easterly winds will be persistent. Warm air advection aloft with drying throughout the low to mid level layer will eventually scatter out the low clouds. Therefore, the ceilings will break around 19-22Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for COZ038-042- 044-048.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ042-044- 046>049.
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ050-051.
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KBDU BOULDER MUNI,CO | 7 sm | 13 min | NE 06 | 7 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 5°F | 3°F | 92% | 30.21 |
KBJC ROCKY MOUNTAIN METROPOLITAN,CO | 11 sm | 23 min | NE 10 | 5 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 7°F | 3°F | 85% | 30.17 |
KEIK ERIE MUNI,CO | 15 sm | 13 min | E 07 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 3°F | 1°F | 92% | 30.23 |
KLMO VANCE BRAND,CO | 16 sm | 13 min | ENE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | 7°F | 1°F | 78% | 30.26 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBDU
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBDU
Wind History Graph: BDU
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of northern rockey
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