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FXUS65 KBOU 031728 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1128 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

True-color and day-cloud phase satellite imagery shows most of this morning's fog has finally burned off across the plains. A narrow band of showers has developed from roughly Sidney to Limon, which will drift eastward through the next several hours. Recent HRRR members are a bit more bullish on this activity strengthening a bit through the early afternoon as it exits our CWA.

Across the mountains, weak mountain snow showers will remain possible through the day, with little to no additional accumulation.

Some minor updates were made to most grids, but the general forecast was on track.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The trough will continue to advance today, it looks like we should be behind the main wave by evening. Flow aloft will turn more westerly and decreasing as the jet embedded ahead of the trough axis move away. They should be east and northeast of our area by afternoon. There will be some light showers lingering this morning that will dissipate as the jet moves away. This includes light snowfall with minimal accumulation for much of the mountains, but focused on the southern Front Range. We should be behind the trough axis by afternoon, and QG fields show ascent turning to subsidence quickly. There may be some weak convection on our eastern plains near the jet, shear, and with some limited instability, but any severe thunderstorm threat should stay east of our area. Much cooler air will be in place today, but also much drier, resulting in little change in humidity. High temperatures are forecast down to near normal across the plains and generally 5 to 10 F cooler than normal across the high country.

Tonight, another little wave will pass then we should be fully behind this system. Flow aloft will turn be turn northwesterly and decreasing. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered, very light showers across our northern mountains and North Park, and near normal to slightly warm temperatures.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Colorado will remain under a moderate northwest flow pattern through much of the upcoming week with cooler temperatures but very little to no chances of precipitation.

On Wednesday, a secondary upper trof will be slowly moving across Colorado during the day with continued cool temperatures. Moisture levels with this trof are quite low but there is some moisture in the mountains which may produce a few orographic showers during the morning. Overall, large scale subsidence will take over behind the trof. Temperatures will be cooler with readings in the mid to upper 60s across the plains.

For Thursday and Friday, several reinforcing shots of cooler air will move across Northern Colorado with weak cold fronts Wednesday night and late Thursday. Airmass is not particularly wet cut could see some low level moisture in the way of low clouds with shallow northeast upslope flow in place. Despite the clouds not looking at many showers, perhaps a few sprinkles at best over the Front Range and northeast plains. Rather strong low level inversions in the 600-700mb layers will keep the airmass stable.

For this weekend, high pressure ridge aloft builds over west of Colorado with some weakening in the northwest flow aloft. Airmass remains dry but with a warming trend.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR through the TAF period. Main concern will be wind direction/speeds through the evening. Starting to see a shift to the W/WNW, which should turn further to the northwest later in the afternoon. A few gusts to 20kt at DEN with gustier winds at BJC.
Winds will weaken after about 03z and become more variable. Winds will eventually shift to the southeast later tonight and remain light. There is a brief period tomorrow morning where some patchy stratus isn't entirely out of the question, but most guidance keeps things quiet.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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