Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tall Timber, CO

SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2024

GOES-16 satellite water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough bringing Pacific moisture into the PacNW, producing rain showers across northwestern Washington state early this morning. This upper- level trough will continue to push eastward today and tomorrow, finally breaking down the blocking pattern that has been in place over the western CONUS for the last week or so. This system is expected to bring some moisture back to Colorado by the end of the weekend, but until then, we can expect a few more days of sunshine and above normal temperatures for the forecast area.

For today, afternoon temperatures are expected to warm a few more degrees than Friday's highs, which means the plains will make it into the upper 50s, with a few locations shooting for the mid 60s.
Our mountain valley cold spots in Middle Park remain under a persistent inversion, with guidance struggling to pick up on the recurring morning fog thus far, by use of the persistence forecasting method, morning fog is expected to start the day in these locations, with temperatures unable to make it above freezing for yet another day.

For tonight, mostly clear skies and generally light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop below freezing for most of the forecast area, with our Middle Park valleys remaining the coldest zones, and areas along the base of the foothills being the warmest, where temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2024

Upper level trough over the Northern Rockies will dive south across the Central Rockies on Monday. For Sunday ahead of the trough, westerly flow aloft will increase, bringing windy conditions to the mountains. A cold front slides south across the plains Sunday, bringing gusty northwest winds behind it. Over the urban corridor, winds will anticyclone resulting in east to southeast winds. This will slow the cold air advection as well.
Highs will be mild again Sunday with readings in the 50s. Cross sections show moisture slowly increases late Sunday night. This will bring a chance for snow to the mountains after midnight.

The upper level trough pushes south through Colorado Monday.
Cross sections indicate moisture is fairly limited with this system. There still should be enough lift from the trough and orographic lift to produce snow in the mountains. Expect snowfall amounts to be on the light side, less than 5 inches. For areas east of the mountains, the best chance for snow will be west of I-25 and south of I-70, due to northeast upslope flow. Downslope flow may prevail the entire time over Larimer and Weld Counties with very little to no snow expected (except for the mountains of Larimer County).

This system progresses southeast of the area Tuesday with a chilly northwest flow behind it. Highs look to be in the 30s to lower 40s again across northeast Colorado. Light snow showers may be possible early in the day before it dries out in the mountains.

For Wednesday through Friday, the cool northwest flow aloft transitions to a mild westerly flow aloft for Thursday and Friday.
This westerly flow will keep areas east of the mountains dry with highs in the 50s. Some models show a weak trough embedded in the westerly flow for Friday. This would bring snow to the mountains if it pans out, thus will have a chance for snow in the forecast for the mountains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/
Issued at 429 AM MST Sat Dec 7 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Generally light winds with no ceiling issues expected through Saturday.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.