Gratiot, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gratiot, OH

June 19, 2024 9:17 AM EDT (13:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM
Moonrise 6:08 PM   Moonset 2:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gratiot, OH
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 190852 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 452 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A dangerous heat wave will impact the region this week. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning are in effect through Friday.
This event is highly unusual for our region and could be worse than the 1994 heat wave.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Excessive Heat Warning was issued for the urban areas of western PA; Heat Advisory continues elsewhere.
- Heat index values could range from 100F to 110F.
- Isolated to scattered downbursts are possible once again this afternoon but mainly north of Pittsburgh.

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Expect some dry conditions this morning as most locations are seeing 5 degrees dew point depressions. Convective coverage last evening was less in coverage than the previous day and has resulted in less of a fog impact this morning, although some is present in the river valleys and spots that received heavier rainfall.

Heading into the day, the ridge aloft will shift a bit further south with the axis extending back to the west and into the southern portions of the forecast area. This will likely be enough to keep convection, at least at a minimum in the south.
To the north, the lake boundary will play a role with a weak trough aloft as another day of convection is expected. The strongest development will stay to the north of Pittsburgh and the threat will once again be damaging winds from downbursts.
Development looks to be after 16Z again, and continue into the evening, with the lake boundary keeping convection going through the day. A marginal risk has been introduced.

Once again, expect heat indices to cross the 100 degree mark into the afternoon. This will especially be the case in the southern counties as the convection and cloud cover will be best to the north. Even locations to the north could see some 100 degree values before the increase in cloud cover. Heading into the overnight, convection should wane by 00Z. Fog will be possible again tonight and most likely in the river valleys. Low temps tonight will once again be in the lower 70s to mid 70s allowing for little relief.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Confidence is high that hot conditions will continue through Friday, Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remains in effect.
- Chances for afternoon convection decreases but the better chance will continue to be more to the north of Pittsburgh.

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The ridge axis remain situated across the East Coast through the weekend. 500mb heights will range between 596 dm to 598 dm on Thursday as the ridge extends into Newfoundland and Quebec.
Record breaking afternoon high temperatures and overnight maximum low temperatures continue in this time period.

The hottest time period is expected to be Thursday into Friday where mid-90s to upper-90s; the NBM 25th percentile suggests low to mid-90s across the region.

Elevated high temperatures and dewpoints will keep heat indices at and above 100 through the period. Low temperatures will also remain elevated with the probability > 70 around 50-80% both nights.

Considering heat effects will be cumulative, late week looks particularly dangerous. The early season event, and temperatures increasing slightly each day, will compound any existing heat issues.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare.
Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023. For our region, this heat wave may be compared to our worse than June of 1994.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot temperatures are expected to continue into Saturday; heat products may need to be extended in the next 24 to 48 hours.
- Relief from the heat may return with a passing trough over the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday.
- A weaker ridge builds in after Monday.

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The upper-level ridge will continue hot and humid conditions into the region through Saturday. Heat products may need to be extended.

Ensemble models project a trough forming over the Midwest and ejecting into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday that may bestow some relief to the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures may still remain above average, but Heat Advisories/Warnings may not be necessary.

After the passage of the trough on Monday, another upper level ridge begins to move over the Upper Ohio Valley region. Although this ridge will likely lack the staying power of last weeks ridge. That said, there is still a potential for greater than 90 degree temps.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will maintain VFR through the period, with the possible exception of patchy overnight river valley fog.
Probability of this is low, and did not include in TAFs.

Afternoon thunderstorms will be much less likely on Wednesday.
And storms that do form are expected to stay generally north of I-80. Have included a PROB30 for FKL to account for this.

Winds remain light and variable with a generally southerly component.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the week as strong ridging develops aloft. Restrictions with rain may return late this weekend with a cold front.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a modest probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

PIT: 98F (1988)
HLG: 100F (1933)
MGW: 99F (1893)
PHD: 99F (1988)
ZZV: 101F (1988,1934)
DUJ: 92F (1969) * RECORD TIED ON 6/18/24*

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ007>009-013-015-016- 022-031-074-076>078.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ014-020- 021-029-073-075.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>511.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KVTA NEWARKHEATH,OH 12 sm23 minSSE 0410 smClear79°F72°F79%30.29
KZZV ZANESVILLE MUNI,OH 18 sm24 minS 0510 smClear79°F70°F74%30.31
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