Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gratiot, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Alberta Clipper expected early Sunday, light snow accumulation and freezing rain potential followed by much cooler temperatures

2) Freezing rain a potential for Monday night

3) Pattern shift in early March, increasing the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The first main concern will be the shortwave trough arriving late tonight and impacting the region Sunday morning through midday. Some concern for the strength of the warm nose may be an issue to properly melt the hydrometeors completely. However, a few ensemble members show a strong warm layer. To add to the confidence the HRRR is showing around a 60% to 70% probability of exceeding 0.01 of freezing rain. While some of the main ensemble members place the transition from rain to snow a bit further north, the HRRR places it along I-70. Even a probability of a light glaze would create some issues here. Given the uncertainty of the warm nose and the transition area, this has been mentioned in the HWO and will need monitored for the potential need of an SPS or WSW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another shortwave is expected to impact the region on Monday and Monday night. This second system is expected to track south of I-70 and track into WV and VA. This will bring a small snow potential to the southern counties but a second wave will follow in behind and lift north a bit as it strengthens. This will bring a freezing rain potential into the entire forecast area for Monday night. There is a bit more uncertainty here with the track as the NBM provides a 40% to 50% prob of exceeding a 0.01 of freezing rain. The better chance at this point seems to be east of the Laurels. This threat has also been added to the HWO and will need monitored for shifts.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Consistent long-range model data indicates a drastic temperature shift beginning Tuesday and could last through mid-March, attributable to the development of a ridge across the Northeast and a trough west of the Mississippi River Valley. The resulting persistent southwest flow, extending from Texas into the Ohio River Valley, will generate above-average temperatures and shower and storm development in association with numerous western disturbances.

Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri currently have the highest risk of flooding concerns due to the present alignment of the trough and ridge axis. However, a slight shift in the axis could extend high water issues into Ohio and will need to be monitored.

The risk of severe weather is no longer negligible and could accompany the threat of heavy rainfall in early March. The threat of strong to severe storms will likely escalate if a developing low-pressure system combines atmospheric instability (from warm, moist air) and high wind shear near our location.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A low level jet ahead of the front will result in LLWS across the region, with a SW wind at 2kft around 40kt. The LLWS should end by 14Z as the low level jet exits.

FROPA will also occur near or just after that time, with winds shifting from the S to the WNW after FROPA. Mid level clouds are expected to increase Saturday evening ahead of the next approaching cold front. This front is likely to bring at least MVFR restrictions Saturday night/Sunday morning with rain and snow. IFR restrictions are possible Sunday morning as the precipitation begins to move out.

Outlook...
VFR returns Sunday night and Monday under high pressure.
Restriction and a wintry mix potential returns Monday night into early Tuesday with an approaching warm front. Restriction potential continues Tuesday and Wednesday in occasional rain as the front lifts north across the region.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.