Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gratiot, OH

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gratiot, OH

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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 282352 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 752 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue for much of the region through the holiday with persistent conditions. Shower chances only remain for higher elevations of West Virginia in upslope, easterly flow. Much of the remainder of the upcoming week will be dry, with a warming trend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A mid-Atlantic low with tropical origins will persist over Virginia and the Carolinas overnight. Northward progression of the low and affiliated precipitation have been halted with a northeast blocking pattern.

So far, observations indicate that no measurable rainfall has made it to the surface despite weak radar returns over portions of the area. This is likely related to the persistence of dry air, particularly between the surface and 600mb as shown by the 00Z sounding.

As the low continues to spin overnight, precipitation chances were only maintained for the higher elevations of West Virginia with upslope easterly flow in a more saturated profile accompanied by an axis of more pronounced PVA. Any rain that does fall, if any, will be light, with QPF totals only around a few hundredths at best.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The low should begin an eastward drift on Memorial day, though additional moisture and vorticity advection rotating around it mean that a shower could not be ruled out south of I 70, although it is generally unlikely. Limiting factors in any precip development include the more southern track of the low, dry air in place, and downsloping easterly wind. Elsewhere, the high to the north and the dry easterly flow should maintain dry weather across the area.

High pressure is progged to track eastward on Tuesday, and the low stalls across the eastern Carolinas/Mid Atlantic region.
Areas again south of I 70 could see a slight shower or thunderstorm potential with limited moisture and vorticity advection rotating around the low.

Generally dry weather is expected Tuesday night with high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes region though areas near the higher terrain areas of WV could see a shower or two with that area still in close proximity to the low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The low is progged to continue its slow eastward track off the coast Wednesday, though a few showers will be possible east of a LBE to MGW line before it exits. Otherwise, ridging is progged to build across the region from the Midwest. This ridge should persist across the Upper Ohio Valley region through at least Friday. Dry and warmer weather is expected through this period, with highs approaching the upper 80s.

Model ensembles indicate the ridge should retrograde westward Saturday, as a trough advances across the northeast CONUS. At this time, it appears moisture is limited with this trough, resulting in continued mainly dry weather.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A high confidence forecast for VFR conditions continues. Dry mid and low levels continue to win out. A much-delayed SCT/BKN mid deck will encroach southern portions of the area this evening into the overnight before returning to cirrus near dawn.

Given continued dry air and latest hi-res model trends, have still opted for not shower mention at MGW Monday. Light wind will be from the east-northeast, shifting to the southeast Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK
No widespread IFR weather is forecast. VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the outlook period

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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