Hendley, NE Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hendley, NE

June 16, 2024 7:54 PM CDT (00:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 9:11 PM
Moonrise 3:07 PM   Moonset 1:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hendley, NE
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Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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FXUS63 KGID 162331 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon- evening across western portions of the area IF the cap breaks.

- Highs in the 90s on Monday with heat index values near 100 and gusty southerly winds of 25-35mph and gusts to 45mph.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Monday evening across western portions of the area.

- Record warm low temperatures are possible on Monday for Grand Island and Hastings: See climate section for more detail.

- The highest chance for rainfall comes Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front stalls across southern portions of the area, with heavy rainfall possible.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

This afternoon and Overnight...

Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the 90s across most of the area, with heat index values approaching the low 100s. A weak front has kept northwestern portions of the area slightly cooler, with in the 80s.

There continues to be large uncertainty with the potential thunderstorm development this afternoon. The HRRR has remained consistent over the past several model runs, keeping the environment capped, with warm air aloft inhibiting thunderstorm development.
Other CAMs and HRRR members indicate weaker capping, with thunderstorms developing along the front in the McCook vicinity and moving east into the area. Among the models with thunderstorms this afternoon, there additional uncertainty to how widespread these storms will be (due to capping). Some models indicate that only isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with others showing a more widespread cluster moving into the area. Areas in the SPC slight risk have the highest chances to see thunderstorms this afternoon- evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with thunderstorms that occur this afternoon/evening. Robust instability with SBCAPE values around 4000 J/Kg will allow for storms to quickly become severe. 0-6 Km shear will be weak (30Kts or less) which will help to limit how strong storms are able to get. The main concerns with thunderstorms this afternoon will be for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

As the low level jet develops this evening/overnight, thunderstorm chances will shift to northern portions of the area. While the heaviest concentration thunderstorms will be north of the forecast area, scattered thunderstorms will be possible for areas mainly along and north of I-80.

Monday...

Any lingering thunderstorms across northern portions of the area will come to an end Monday morning. Highs will climb into the 90s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Heat index values will be similar to today, as they peak around 100 degrees. Winds will be gusty throughout the day on Monday, with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts to 45mph.

Scattered thunderstorms that develop along the western High Plains will move into western portions of the area during the evening hours on Monday. While instability will be plentiful, with SBCAPE values of 3000-3500 J/Kg, storms will be entering an environment with decreasing shear. Storms are expected to weaken as they move northeast across the area, with rain coming to an end Monday night.
The main concern for these storms will be for damaging wind gusts, though some large hail is possible if storms remain more discrete.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A cold front will move across the area during the daytime hours on Tuesday, bringing cooler weather to the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the cold front during the afternoon and evening hours. The cold front will stall just to the southeast of the forecast area Tuesday night, with storms becoming more widespread along and north of the front. PWAT values 150% of normal along with the potential for training storms will lead to an increased risk for flooding. The entire area is in a WPC slight risk for excessive rainfall due to this potential for flooding. Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms could see rainfall in excess of 2". Modest instability and weak shear could allow for a few strong to severe thunderstorms as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Precipitation is expected to become more scattered over time. The potential for flooding will continue into Wednesday, but will likely depend on precipitation Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday with persistent cloud coverage and precipitation. Highs will range from the mid 60s (northwest) to the low 80s (southeast).

Thursday Through The Weekend...

The upper level trough over the Rockies which brought precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday will gradually lift north and begin to exit the area Thursday night into Friday. Highs on Thursday and Friday will return to the 80s along with breezy southerly winds. Scattered precipitation chances continue on Thursday and Friday. Warmer weather continues into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, mainly during the evening-overnight hours.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Currently have a dry TAF forecast with VFR conditions, with the better chances for precipitation looking to be north/west of the terminal areas. Continue the mention of LLWS at both sites from about midnight on through 14Z, even with the gusty southerly winds forecast. Some uncertainty with the winds later tonight, as some models show the potential for outflow to sink south into the area and in close proximity to the terminal areas.
Otherwise, gusty southerly winds continue on into the day Monday, with gusts over 30 MPH expected.

CLIMATE
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

-- Regarding possible RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS on Monday (June 17th):

Both tonight-Monday morning and Monday night-Tues morning are expected to remain very warm, with most of our CWA not dropping any cooler than the low-mid 70s. As a result, calendar day (midnight-to-midnight) records for warmest low temperature COULD be threatened at Grand Island/Hastings airports (the 2 sites for which we issue formal Record Event Reports/RERs).

Any such records are most likely to be threatened on Monday, because a cold front arriving Tuesday is currently expected to drop temps safely below record territory by midnight that night.

- GRAND ISLAND Record Warm Low Latest Forecast Monday June 17th 74 (1906) 71

- HASTINGS Record Warm Low Latest Forecast Monday June 17th 72 (2020/2014/1946) 72

NOTE/REMINDER: in order for a new record warm low/minimum temperature to become official it has to "survive" the entire 24-hour calendar day (in other words, it is not always based solely on the early-AM low temp).

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KNRN NORTON MUNI,KS 12 sm19 minS 1010 smClear88°F64°F46%29.67
KCSB CAMBRIDGE MUNI,NE 23 sm19 minESE 0710 smClear88°F68°F52%29.63
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