Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hendley, NE
December 1, 2023 11:18 PM CST (05:18 UTC)
Sunrise 7:39AM Sunset 5:11PM Moonrise 9:09PM Moonset 11:47AM
Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE
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FXUS63 KGID 020501 AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1101 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
DISCUSSION
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Key Messages:
* A band of light snow will move across the area between 6 AM and 3 PM Saturday. Minor accumulation of an inch or less will be possible (30% chance) with this snow band, possibly leading to an hour or two of slick roads where the heavier snow showers develop.
* The remainder of the week will be dry, although a few flurries or sprinkles may fall on Sunday.
* Much-warmer-than-normal conditions by next week with highs in the 50s and 60s.
High clouds were streaming across the region on Friday, allowing for filter sunshine at the surface. The low and mid levels have been quite dry, and any snowflakes that have tried to develop have evaporated well above the ground. Temperatures rose into the mid 30s to around 40 across the forecast area this afternoon, and with light winds and the bit of sunshine, it's turned into a decent weather day.
Looking upstream, the feature of interest for Saturday is a compact short wave trough currently tracking from eastern Utah into western Colorado. This system will track east and then northeast across the local area, bringing with it some focus for ascent that appears sufficient to overcome the low/mid level dry air in place and produce a band of snow. The surface reflection of this storm system will be in the form of a weak inverted trough and a wind shift from southerly to westerly during the day.
Looking farther aloft, there is a stronger thermal gradient in the 700 to 550 hPa layer. The PV anomaly will ride over this gradient with just enough warm and cold advection aloft to intensify a frontogenetic response. This will be strongest in a southwest to northeast axis across the forecast area, and wherever that sets up for multiple hours appears to have the greatest chance to maximize precip production aloft and saturate the column downward.
It's going to take quite a bit to get snow to the ground, but a strong majority of ensemble model members point to a band of light snow developing somewhere in the forecast area. This could be as far northwest as Lexington or as far southeast as Hebron. Most guidance puts one area of light snow roughly through Kearney and another sets up a bit farther southeast in the York area. When it all comes down to it, would expect a few areas to see enough snow to make roads slick for an hour or two while a majority of the forecast area receives a dusting of snow or less, with little to no impact on the roads. Any snow should exit the area by around 3 PM.
As we move into early Sunday, will want to watch for potential for fog development in the wake of the surface trough, especially in eastern areas. This may end up developing farther east and out of the area, and forecast confidence is low in local development.
Later in the day on Sunday, a quick moving weak short wave trough crosses the region from the northwest, and may have sufficient lift for a few flurries or sprinkles.
By next week, upper level ridging gradually builds in from the west with warmer than normal conditions expected nearly every day of the week. Even the colder days will likely climb into the 50s, and there is a high likelihood (>80%) of climbing into the 60s especially by the later half of the week. Several of these days look to be on the breezy side as well, with periods of warm advection interrupted by quick hitting but briefly lived cold fronts.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
A band of light snow is expected to move into the area Saturday morning. Ceilings remain a little uncertain, but at least a short period of MVFR conditions are possible. Snow accumulation will be very minor, and any visibility restriction will be brief.
This activity clears out late afternoon and winds shift to he west Saturday night.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1101 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
DISCUSSION
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
Key Messages:
* A band of light snow will move across the area between 6 AM and 3 PM Saturday. Minor accumulation of an inch or less will be possible (30% chance) with this snow band, possibly leading to an hour or two of slick roads where the heavier snow showers develop.
* The remainder of the week will be dry, although a few flurries or sprinkles may fall on Sunday.
* Much-warmer-than-normal conditions by next week with highs in the 50s and 60s.
High clouds were streaming across the region on Friday, allowing for filter sunshine at the surface. The low and mid levels have been quite dry, and any snowflakes that have tried to develop have evaporated well above the ground. Temperatures rose into the mid 30s to around 40 across the forecast area this afternoon, and with light winds and the bit of sunshine, it's turned into a decent weather day.
Looking upstream, the feature of interest for Saturday is a compact short wave trough currently tracking from eastern Utah into western Colorado. This system will track east and then northeast across the local area, bringing with it some focus for ascent that appears sufficient to overcome the low/mid level dry air in place and produce a band of snow. The surface reflection of this storm system will be in the form of a weak inverted trough and a wind shift from southerly to westerly during the day.
Looking farther aloft, there is a stronger thermal gradient in the 700 to 550 hPa layer. The PV anomaly will ride over this gradient with just enough warm and cold advection aloft to intensify a frontogenetic response. This will be strongest in a southwest to northeast axis across the forecast area, and wherever that sets up for multiple hours appears to have the greatest chance to maximize precip production aloft and saturate the column downward.
It's going to take quite a bit to get snow to the ground, but a strong majority of ensemble model members point to a band of light snow developing somewhere in the forecast area. This could be as far northwest as Lexington or as far southeast as Hebron. Most guidance puts one area of light snow roughly through Kearney and another sets up a bit farther southeast in the York area. When it all comes down to it, would expect a few areas to see enough snow to make roads slick for an hour or two while a majority of the forecast area receives a dusting of snow or less, with little to no impact on the roads. Any snow should exit the area by around 3 PM.
As we move into early Sunday, will want to watch for potential for fog development in the wake of the surface trough, especially in eastern areas. This may end up developing farther east and out of the area, and forecast confidence is low in local development.
Later in the day on Sunday, a quick moving weak short wave trough crosses the region from the northwest, and may have sufficient lift for a few flurries or sprinkles.
By next week, upper level ridging gradually builds in from the west with warmer than normal conditions expected nearly every day of the week. Even the colder days will likely climb into the 50s, and there is a high likelihood (>80%) of climbing into the 60s especially by the later half of the week. Several of these days look to be on the breezy side as well, with periods of warm advection interrupted by quick hitting but briefly lived cold fronts.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023
A band of light snow is expected to move into the area Saturday morning. Ceilings remain a little uncertain, but at least a short period of MVFR conditions are possible. Snow accumulation will be very minor, and any visibility restriction will be brief.
This activity clears out late afternoon and winds shift to he west Saturday night.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCSB CAMBRIDGE MUNI,NE | 23 sm | 23 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 23°F | 18°F | 79% | 29.88 |
Wind History from MCK
(wind in knots)
Grand Island, NE,
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