Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:50AM||Sunset 5:10PM||Friday December 13, 2019 2:45 PM CST (20:45 UTC)||Moonrise 6:50PM||Moonset 9:14AM||Illumination 95%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hendley, NEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Hastings, NE  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KGID 131730 AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Main issue in the short term is potential for pcpn tonight.
NW flow pattern is in place across the region per latest upper air analysis and water vapor satellite. Several waves can be seen embedded within the NW flow. One is crossing the CWA as of 09Z, with another wave along the ND/SD border. Further upstream, a stronger wave can be seen along ID/MT border, and this will be the wave that impacts the CWA tonight. This wave lies within the LER of a 150-180kt jet streak. Closer to the surface, the main feature of note is a deck of low clouds and fog across areas from Greeley to York. This stratus has likely reached its peak coverage across the CWA and will gradually lift N/NE as winds gradually veer ahead of a weak sfc trough.
Much of the daytime hrs today will be quiet, with even some brief mostly clear skies at times this morning through around midday. However, high clds will quickly incr this aftn from W to E. These clds will probably put a damper, at least somewhat, on high temps today and given trends of last few days to underperform, dropped highs another couple deg. Current grid calls for highs in the low 40s N to mid 50s far SW.
The aforementioned ID/MT wave will quickly translate SE through the day today, reaching the High Plains late this aftn into eve. As with any wave in the fast moving NW flow, exact details are difficult to determine, even this close to the onset. Models are in decent agreement in terms of timing, but not with QPF amount and placement. As for timing, looks like brunt of pcpn will occur in the 21Z Fri to 06Z Sat time frame, with all POPs ending by 09Z. QPF and exact placement remains a bit uncertain. NAM/RAP/HRRR tend to be on the higher side compared to GFS/EC, though will say the 0.3-0.6" output from the last two runs of the NAM seems overly high given origin and fast moving nature of the wave. Nonetheless, am a bit concerned it may be on to the potential for a very narrow band of enhanced pcpn given strong FGEN in both H85-H7 and H7-H6 layers along with left exit region of 140+ jet streak. Timing of the wave means pcpn will start off as rain, then as temps cool diabatically and dynamically, should be a pretty clean transition to snow. Current forecast calls for amounts around half inch from Tri-Cities and points to the W but would not be surprised to see very localized higher amounts around 1-2" wherever the predominant band sets up and if transition to all snow is slightly sooner. Latest NMM/ARW support idea of 30-50 mi wind band, with max amounts from Kearney to Red Cloud. Could be a "sneaky snow". A bigger issue may be refreeze/black ice from wet sfcs freezing up as temps fall into mid teens to mid 20s by early Sat AM.
LONG TERM. (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
Pattern remains active through Mon, then quiets down.
The next in a series of waves will arrive during the day on Sat. This wave appears weak with not a lot of upper jet support as the area will lie within the left entrance region of 130kt jet streak. Moisture also appears to be limited at least initially. However, persistent upslope flow suggests at least the potential for some lt snow Sat aftn across the W third of the CWA. If snow does occur, it will be light and likely of low impact during the day.
The potential for snow incr Sat night as a stronger wave is set to traverse the region over the second half of the weekend. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding details during this time as models are not in very good agreement. 00Z runs seemed to possibly be converging on a more southern solution that the EC has been showing for quite some time, but the latest 06Z runs of NAM/GFS are once again further N. In fact, the 06Z NAM has less than an inch across north central KS where the 00Z EC has 2-4". The 06Z GFS/NAM runs also bring in meaningful pcpn much earlier (Sat night) compared to the EC (Sun aftn). So obviously, there's plenty of details to be worked out over the coming 24-48hrs. Envision near criteria level snow amounts of 2-4" somewhere over the CWA, and tend to favor the more consistent EC attm. As such, have high chc to likely POPs over north central KS on Sun, with lesser chcs further N. The builder initially populated areas of freezing rain for S portions of the CWA, but this appears to be due to differences in probability of ice within the cloud due to model differences in the placement of the snow band. Synoptically, frz rn doesn't make a lot of sense for our portion of the storm system, so removed all mention of frz rn. Highs likely remain in the 20s on Sun.
The pattern will quiet down beyond Tue as upper ridging moves in and the main flow is displaced northward. Temps should gradually incr, though how much will depend on snowcover by then. If snow fails to materialize by Mon, going temps are likely too cool, esp. Wed. As it stands now, expect 30s and 40s for highs with more 40s if there is minimal snow cover.
AVIATION. (For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019
A cold front has moved through the TAF sites which will keep northerly flow through the period. Clouds will lower today and guidance is mixed on how low, decided to keep it MVFR for now for the overnight hours. Debated about -SN or VCSH for possible light precip overnight and decided to do VCSH for now as amounts should be light.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NE . NONE. KS . NONE.
SHORT TERM . Thies LONG TERM . Thies AVIATION . Beda
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|McCook, McCook Municipal Airport, NE||35 mi||53 min||N 13||10.00 mi||Overcast||49°F||32°F||52%||1010.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KMCK
Wind History from MCK (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SE||SE||SE||E||E||E||NE||E||NW||W||W||W||NW||SW||W||W||Calm||SW||SW||W||SW|
|2 days ago||S||S||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||W||SW||SW||W||W||SW||SW||W||W||SW||N||E||E||SE||SE |
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GEOS Local Image of CentralPlains EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Hastings, NE (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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