Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hendley, NE

DISCUSSION
Issued at 413 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Currently...

Conditions are quiet with partly cloudy skies across the forecast area early this morning, with ongoing showers/storms currently focused mainly off to our east. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite imagery showing weaker, generally zonal flow in place across the forecast area, with a subtle shortwave disturbance making its way toward IA/MO, helping drive those scattered showers/storms. This westerly upper level flow is being driven by disturbances in the Pac NW, near the ND/MN/Can border, and the extreme NE CONUS/eastern Can...with broad high pressure across Mex/SErn CONUS. At the surface, a stationary frontal boundary lies across SSE portions of the forecast area, draped from weak low pressure over SErn CO northeastward into southern IA...with a cool front/trough axis near the NE/SD border. This keeping winds for most of the area generally NNErly, and on the light side...at times outright calm. 3AM obs showing quite a gradient in temperatures, with right around 40 in the far north, to mid 50s in the far SE.

Today/tonight....

Confidence in the forecast for this short term period is not on the high side, still plenty of differences between models with how precipitation chances end up panning out. Through the morning hours, will have to keep an eye on radar across southern portions of the area near that front...though any upper level forcing remains weak, it's not out of the question some scattered showers/storms could develop. Otherwise through midday, much of the area looks to remain on the quiet side.
Through the daytime hours, the surface pattern looks to become a bit more organized...thanks to high pressure currently over the Nrn Rockies/Plains sinking further south and low pressure deepening around the easter CO/NM border. Models remain in good agreement showing the main surface frontal boundary becoming a bit more defined, but still differ some on exactly where it sets up later today...is it just along/south of our forecast area border, or a bit further north into more of our area...one big question for the day.

Through the afternoon hours, models showing a subtle mid-upper level shortwave disturbance sliding in from the WSW...and while this frontal boundary will be the main focus for additional thunderstorm development, some scattered activity could develop further north of the front. At least through 18-00Z, the overall forcing being on the weaker side brings some uncertainty with the coverage of activity...with some models showing the potential for it to be fairly scattered. Because of that, was difficult to justify going any higher than 40-60 percent chances (highest being closer to/south of the state line) in the forecast. Models showing the potential for MLCAPE values climbing into the 1500-2500 j/kg range across southern portions of the area, with deeper layer shear in that same area around 30-40kts. During the evening/overnight hours, models showing continued overall subtle mid-upper level forcing in the area, and along with an increasing southerly LLJ...potential for more widespread activity increases, and forecast chances are in the 60- 70 percent range area-wide.

Threat for strong-severe thunderstorms remains across most of the forecast area, moreso across the southern half vs the north...and all but the northern fringe are in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area. The best chances look to be focused in the mid-late afternoon hours through roughly mid-evening...with models then showing overall instability waning with later overnight.

As far as temperatures go, having a surface boundary meandering around brings better potential for the forecast to bust...and models/guidance varying by as much as 10-15 degrees in spots...so confidence is not high. Forecast currently has right around 70 in the north, to mid-70s in the south...some models have ranges from more in the 60s north to closer to 80 in the south.

Thursday/Friday....

Chances for showers and storms continue as we get into the end of the work week...with the best chances focused on Thursday- Thursday night. Models showing mid-upper level shortwave forcing continuing on into Thursday...with some question regarding the timing. Forecast chances are highest in the first half of the day...gradually diminishing through the afternoon/evening hours...with some models suggesting that diminishing trend from west-east could occur faster. During the afternoon-evening hours, the main surface boundary will again provide additional focus for thunderstorm development...but exactly where that boundary is located is uncertain. Some models give it enough of a push south to keep the better potential for strong/severe storms just outside of our forecast area...others say it could be our problem again. How things pan out today/tonight will play a role in where the boundary starts the day...so it's hard to have a ton of confidence in its location tomorrow.

Precipitation chances diminish for Friday, with models showing shortwave upper ridging moving into the area.

While there is some uncertainty with the sfc pattern/wind for Thursday, the boundary getting a better push south will bring NNErly winds to the area for Friday. That uncertainty also extends into highs for Thursday, with the current forecast calling for upper 50s in the far NNW to near 70 in the SE. Highs on Friday are more solidly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

This weekend and on...

For this weekend, NBM precipitation chances remain pretty broad, peaking in the 50-70 percent range...will be interesting to see how models trend in the coming days, as recent deterministic runs show the potential for upper level ridging to keep at least part of the weekend on the drier side. It's not strong ridging, so would still be potentially affected by any shortwave disturbances getting ejected out ahead of stronger low pressure digging south through the western CONUS, eventually shifting into the Rockies. This stronger upper level system looks to move out onto the Plains in the Monday- Monday night time frame, bringing along another notable surface cold front. There has been some variation in models the past few days with the timing/location of that surface front, and how much of our forecast area is impacted by it and the potential for strong- severe storms. Precipitation chances Tue-Wed are low, around 10-20 percent, as we sit at least briefly in the wake of this early week system.

As far as temperatures go, confidence remains low, as preciptiation chances could greatly affect highs...have low- mid 60s on Saturday, climbing into the mid 70s-low 80s by Monday, then 60s-low 70s for Tue-Wed.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Continue to have VFR conditions through much of the day today, better potential for sub-VFR conditions and chances for rain/storms increase mid-afternoon and on. Kept rain/storm mention focused in PROB30 groups from mid-afternoon through just past midnight...as model differences keep uncertainties high regarding overall coverage of activity. After midnight through the end of the period, do have showers/VCTS in the prevailing group, with models showing more widespread chances moving in from the west. Current NNE winds are expected to turn more easterly with time...with gusts near 20 MPH not out of the question from late morning on through the afternoon hours.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.