Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Boro, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 11:05AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 143 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 143 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall near the waters throughout the weekend. The front will push eastward into the atlantic on Monday as high pressure builds over the eastern united states through much of the work week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Boro CDP, PA
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location: 40, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 111418 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1018 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will remain stalled near or just east of the Chesapeake Bay this weekend as an upper level disturbance drops into the region on Sunday. Thereafter, high pressure will push the boundary off the coast and dominate over much of the eastern U.S. through the upcoming work week, with an extended stretch of hot and humid conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. It's a fairly quiet start to the weekend. "Cold front" (definitely worthy of being in quotes) is not easy to pick out in the surface obs, but based on the pressure pattern is probably somewhere close to the western shore. Today's weather- maker is actually behind the front, in the form of an upper wave moving across northern Pennsylvania. Given how far north that disturbance is, it isn't likely to make much weather for our service area. Current radar bears that out, with plentiful echoes over NE OH and NW PA, pivoting more eastward than south.

That said, there are some signs in high-res guidance of isolated to scattered showers -- and maybe an embedded thunderstorm -- getting down toward the Mason-Dixon Line this afternoon. For the morning update, I raised PoPs slightly near the PA border but lowered them further south. Best chance is north of I-70 but cannot be ruled out as far south as US 50 (or even further south in Southern Maryland). Temps are running a little cooler than the hourly forecast but I think are still ultimately on track.

Dry conditions tonight as winds go light and variable and temperatures hold near seasonable levels in the 60s to near 70 degrees in the cities and immediately along the Bay/Potomac.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Another shortwave drops down from the Great Lakes on Sunday, taking a further southward track compared to the disturbance on Saturday. This will deliver better coverage of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with higher POPs residing west of the Blue Ridge where the better lift and instability will be present, as well as assistance from the terrain. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible given strong heating and marginal shear. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is highlighted by SPC along and west of the spine of the Blue Ridge.

The actual trough axis slowly tracks through the area Sunday night into Monday, so will carry POPs through the overnight hours Sunday, however with the loss of daytime heating, coverage and intensity will diminish. The axis of the upper trough and energy from the upper disturbance will push to our east late Monday, lifting to our northeast Monday night. Another chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be focused mainly east of the Blue Ridge and to the Bay. With the lifting shortwave and a more downsloping component to the wind, coverage and intensity of showers/storms on Monday will be less compared to Sunday. Dry conditions will prevail Monday night behind the exiting system. Hot and humid conditions will continue to be the theme Sunday through Monday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day, while overnight lows fall into the middle 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper level troughing will be moving to the east on Tuesday while surface high pressure builds east from the Ohio Valley. This will lead to a dry day with near normal temperatures.

For the middle to end of next week a hot summertime ridge will extend across the southern US and nose up the east coast, while a closed low remains near central Canada. For Wednesday, the surface high will still be nearby and return flow won't be fully established yet. While a stray shower/storm could form over the mountains, most of the area should be dry, with temperatures edging a little above normal.

There's still some model spread in low level temperatures as well as how quickly the low level heat builds in. Thursday still looks like it has potential to be the hottest day of the week, with highs in the 90s (a 100 is not impossible in spots) and heat indices potentially above 100. With quasi-zonal flow, embedded shortwaves are difficult to time, though it looks like the main chance for a few storms on Thursday will be over the mountains.

By Friday, a weakness in the ridge may allow heights to lower some and a lee trough to develop. This would present the best opportunity of convection in the extended forecast. Temperatures may also be a few degrees lower.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Behind a cold front to the east, there could be a few brief gusts to 20 knots this afternoon, especially at MRB (already happening at CBE and OKV nearby). An isolated shower or storm this afternoon could bring a brief period of sub VFR conditions (most likely at MTN, but also cannot be ruled out anywhere except CHO) but confidence in occurrence is too low for TAF inclusion at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through tonight as winds trend light and westerly.

The aforementioned front will stall southeast of the terminals through Sunday as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the terminals late Sunday and Sunday night, bringing the potential for periodic sub VFR VIS/CIGs. Additional showers and thunderstorms may affect the terminals Monday afternoon and early evening as another upper level disturbance crosses. Winds Sunday and Monday will remain light out of the WSW, veering out of the NW Monday night.

High pressure will provide VFR conditions and light winds for Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE. A cold front will be near the waters today, with a slight uptick in winds late this morning and this afternoon. Mixing will likely be limited over the waters, but can see portions of the upper Potomac and northern Bay zones experiencing occasional gusts to around 18 knots for a few hours this afternoon. Will hold off on Advisory at this time given low confidence and expectant occasional nature instead of frequent.

Sub SCA conditions tonight and Sunday as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls just to our southeast and the over all gradient remains weak. Winds will trend light and out of the west southwest. Locally gusty winds from showers and thunderstorms may be a threat late Sunday and again on Monday as a disturbance crosses the region.

High pressure will build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Light northwest winds will gradually become southeasterly.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide this morning will remain below minor flood levels, and in fact needed to lower the forecast slightly in the upper Bay and upper tidal Potomac, as the re-surge behind Fay was less significant than expected. At this time, no minor flooding is forecast but tides will stay above normal.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. DC . None. MD . None. VA . None. WV . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . JE/BKF SHORT TERM . BKF LONG TERM . ADS AVIATION . JE/BKF/ADS MARINE . JE/BKF/ADS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JE


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 49 mi61 min SW 2.9 G 8 84°F 83°F1006.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 51 mi61 min NW 7 G 12 86°F 81°F1006.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 54 mi61 min W 8.9 G 11 84°F 1006.4 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA13 mi62 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F70°F63%1005.8 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi59 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F68°F53%1005.3 hPa
York, York Airport, PA21 mi62 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F66°F59%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLNS

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12N9N10NW11NW11
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NW8W9W10W9W7W3E3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalm3W7SW5NW6
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1 day agoS6SE8SE10S8E7SE5S6SE7SE5SE4E3CalmE4CalmE3NE6NE5NE9NE10NE8N11NE9N9N7
2 days agoS7S11S8N18E8NW5E4E3CalmCalmNE7E4S3N4CalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE3SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:56 AM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:54 AM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:55 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.52.12.62.72.62.42.11.81.51.41.31.51.82.32.82.92.82.52.21.81.41.11

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.722.121.81.41.10.80.60.70.91.31.82.12.22.11.91.51.10.70.50.40.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.