Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neffs, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms early this morning with a warm front - Cold front brings more widespread showers/storms later today - Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon -------------------------------------------------------------------

Surface low pressure was centered across southern WI, with a warm front extending SEWD across central OH and nrn WV . A cold front trailed south of the low to the Mississippi Valley region. The warm front will continue to lift north across the Upper Ohio Valley region early this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers were developing on the leading edge of a secondary low level jet associated with the warm front. Weak elevated instability could also result in a few thunderstorms developing through the morning.

THe warm front should lift north of the region later this morning, as a prefrontal trough develops ahead of the approaching cold front. Some destabilization is expected after the passage of the warm front, and before the arrival of the prefrontal trough late this morning into the afternoon. In general, 500-750 j/kg of MU CAPE is progged in most of the CAMs this afternoon and early evening, with 40-50kt of 0-6km shear, enhanced by a mid level jet. A few storms could be severe, both with the prefrontal trough from early to mid afternoon, and with any potential redevelopment along the surface cold front later this afternoon and early evening. The main limiting factor in severe storm development will be the amount of instability that develops, depending on how the forecast conditions evolve through the day.

The Storm Prediction Center has included much of our region in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The main hazard is expected to be the potential for damaging wind gusts with increasing flow aloft, though isolated embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible as 0-3km helicity increases with a veering wind profile.

High temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above average with the area in the warm sector.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers/storms end this evening with the passage of a cold front - Dry weather then returns through Wednesday night -------------------------------------------------------------------

The prefrontal trough is expected to be just east of the area early this evening, as the surface cold front crosses the region. A potential for strong to severe storms will continue until FROPA, though this will depend on the amount of instability able to occur behind the prefrontal trough. Shower and thunderstorm chances will end after FROPA, with dry weather returning the remainder of the night.

Surface high pressure will slide east across the Upper Ohio Valley region later tonight through Wednesday night under zonal flow aloft, maintaining dry weather through Wednesday night.

After a brief cool down on Tuesday behind the cold front, temperatures will return to readings around 10 degrees above average by Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Increasing shower chances through late week into Saturday - Dry weather returns for the end of the weekend

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Model ensembles indicate zonal flow aloft early in the period will become more amplified by late week. A trough is expected to develop across the central CONUS on Thursday. Increasing moisture and warm advection ahead of this trough should return shower chances to the area late Thursday and Thursday night. The trough, and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region Friday and Friday night, with the highest chances for showers and possible thunderstorms. The trough and front should exit the region early Saturday, with showers ending from W-E.

Ridging, between the exiting trough to the east, and a developing western CONUS trough, should return dry weather to the region Saturday night and Sunday as it builds across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Above average temperatures are expected to return to seasonable levels after the passage of the trough.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Passage of an early morning warm front will leave area terminals within the warm sector of an approaching surface low, resulting in wind veering to the S as it slowly increases as well as above 5kft cig heights.

A broken line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to traverse the region between 15z-00z today ahead of the crossing cold front. Hi-res models remain a bit muddled on whether convection along the pre-frontal trough (passing btwn 15z-21z) or along the cold front (approximately 2-3 hours after the initial trough) will feature the most intense convective activity. The likely limited instability for either line suggests rainfall intensity will be low (limiting the degree of vsby drops) and wind gusts between 30-50kt likely will be isolated (too low of probability for TAF mention).

Passage of the upper shortwave axis and surface cold front will see a quick end to convective activity in the region. Weak cold advection and slowly veering wind profiles suggest the presence of stratocu hovering just above 3kft, though weak convergence along the higher terrain offers greater probability for MVFR cigs (DUJ/LBE/MGW).

Outlook...
High pressure and weak ridging aloft will favor VFR and eroding stratocu Tuesday, which should persist through much of the daytime hours Thursday.

Weak shortwave movement withing southwesterly flow is expected to increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Thursday into the early weekend where convective activity becomes the main driver for terminal restrictions.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.