Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dover Beaches North, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 3:10PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1233 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sat..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain or snow likely after midnight.
ANZ400 1233 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure across the ohio river valley today will build eastward across the mid atlantic and northeast states Wednesday through Thursday. This high will weaken and retreat to the northeast Friday before a storm system moves across the mid atlantic and northeast states late in the week and into the weekend. This low will strengthen as it moves into the canadian maritimes early next week while high pressure builds to our southwest.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dover Beaches North, NJ
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location: 40.01, -74.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 211832 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 132 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the Ohio Valley this afternoon will build eastward across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states Wednesday through Thursday. This high will weaken and retreat to the northeast Friday before a storm system moves across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states late in the week and into the weekend. This low will strengthen as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes early next week while high pressure builds to our southwest.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. An upper air analysis early this afternoon showed a trough across the southeastern states with another trough across northern New England. A ridge was located across the Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a 1039 mb high was centered over the Tennessee and Ohio valley's. There is an area of more focused low-level warm air advection across much of the Great Lakes region, which has strengthened an inversion there with cloud cover beneath it. The air mass is much drier southeastward across our region, which continues to result in ample sunshine. Despite it still being cold, the 12z Sterling, VA raob showed some weak warming has occurred over the past 24 hours in the 700-850 mb layer.

The expansive surface high centered well to our west into this evening will get closer to our area through the overnight. A lessening north-northwesterly flow along with rather dry air will result in another very cold night. The challenge however is how low will the temperatures go through the overnight hours and if full radiational cooling efficiency can be achieved. The leading edge of the more focused low-level warm air advection and a 500 mb speed maximum is driving an area of high level cloudiness southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and adjacent Canada. The low-level clouds should remain northwest of our area, however at least some cirrus is expected to move across the area through at least the first half of the night. If this is thick enough then the temperatures may not fall off as fast despite winds going light and variable to locally calm. The greatest chance of some thicker cirrus looks to be toward the Poconos. There is some warm air advection aloft through the night, however this is on the weaker side. We blended in the MOS overall with continuity for the low temperatures, which did show some lower readings for some of the typically colder locales. Most areas should drop into the teens by daybreak Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/. A ridge axis is forecast to slide across our region during the course of Wednesday. Some warm air advection will continue however the flow will be light given the ridge aloft overhead and surface high pressure arriving. After a very cold start, a 'milder' afternoon is expected however mixing looks to be limited given the weak flow. As a result, we went a little lower than what a MOS/continuity blend showed but this resulted in high temperatures close to where they should be for this time of the year.

Looks like another day of ample sunshine as the ridge axis moves across our region. Some high level cloudiness cannot be ruled out though cresting over the ridge well ahead of a Midwest and Great Lakes system.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Quiet weather will begin the long term forecast, then unsettled weather returns for the end of the week into the weekend, then quiet weather is expected to return again early next week.

High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic and northeast states Wednesday night into Thursday. This will keep dry, quiet weather in the forecast. Temperatures will warm above normal Thursday as thicknesses increase.

The high pressure will begin to weaken and retreat to the northeast by Thursday night and Friday. The forecast remains dry through Friday, however, cloud cover will be on the increase in advance of the approaching storm system as a couple of short wave moves across the area.

The main focus of the long term forecast then turns to the storm system over the weekend. An occluding low pressure system will be lifting across the Mid-West and into the Great Lakes Friday into Friday night, while lifting a frontal system toward the Mid-Atlantic region. A secondary low is forecast to develop to our southwest across the central Appalachians Friday night, then lift to the northeast near our region Saturday, and strengthen and become the main low of the storm system. There are timing and placement differences with the development of this secondary low, and this will have an impact on the precipitation type. The GFS is faster and closer to the coast, while the ECMWF is slower and farther inland. A wintry mix is expected for areas along and north of I-78 starting Friday night and continuing through Saturday into Saturday night. Areas along the I-78 corridor may change over to all rain for a time Saturday, before changing back to snow by Saturday night. Areas farther north, especially along and north of the I-80 corridor will likely remain all snow during the event. Those areas that see all snow may end up with several inches of snow, while areas farther south could see a couple of inches along with some icing. Areas farther south of the I-78 corridor will likely remain all rain until Saturday night into Sunday as the precipitation changes to snow for many areas as colder air wraps around the low as it moves to the northeast. Any precipitation will begin to end later Sunday into Sunday night as the low pulls farther away from the area.

High pressure will build to our southwest early next week, while low pressure moves through the Canadian Maritimes. Winds will become gusty due to a tight pressure gradient between the low to our northeast and the high to our southwest, beginning later Saturday, and continuing through Monday. Dry weather will return to the forecast for Monday

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon . VFR. Northwesterly winds around 10 knots, then diminishing toward early evening. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. North-northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming light and variable. High confidence.

Wednesday . VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming north-northwest around 5 knots. The winds should locally become west-southwest in the afternoon. High confidence on VFR occurring; moderate confidence with the winds.

Outlook . Wednesday night-Friday . VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will be fairly light through the period. -High confidence.

Friday night . Conditions begin to lower to MVFR the IFR overnight as precipitation moves into the area. Rain is expected across southeast Pennsylvania, central/southern New Jersey, Delaware, and eastern Maryland. A wintry mix is possible across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Light winds become easterly overnight -Moderate confidence.

Saturday . Precipitation continues across the area with IFR conditions in place. Winds shift front easterly, to north, to northwest. -Moderate confidence.

MARINE. The conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday as high pressure gradually builds across our region.

OUTLOOK . Wednesday night-Thursday . Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels.

Thursday night-Friday night . Winds expected to remain below advisory levels, however, seas are expected to build above advisory levels to 5-7 feet.

Saturday . Seas remain above advisory levels, and winds are expected to increase above advisory levels as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a new moon on Friday, along with an onshore flow may lead to areas of coastal flooding with the high tide Friday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Robertson Near Term . Gorse Short Term . Gorse Long Term . Robertson Aviation . Gorse/Robertson Marine . Gorse/Robertson Tides/Coastal Flooding . Robertson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 24 mi32 min 47°F3 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 32 mi44 min 31°F 38°F1030.1 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 33 mi32 min NW 12 G 16 30°F 1029.7 hPa (-2.3)17°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi44 min 35°F1030.4 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 38 mi62 min NW 6 32°F 1031 hPa10°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 41 mi56 min N 6 G 11 31°F 37°F1029.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi44 min 32°F 40°F1029.7 hPa
MHRN6 44 mi62 min NW 6 G 8
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi44 min 31°F 1029.5 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 48 mi44 min 40°F1030.1 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi44 min 32°F 42°F1029.6 hPa

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ12 mi92 minWNW 710.00 miFair31°F10°F42%1029.6 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ12 mi96 minNW 910.00 miFair32°F12°F43%1030.1 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ12 mi96 minVar 610.00 miFair30°F12°F49%1030.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13NW18
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NW14W8NW9W7NW10NW8NW8NW9NW10NW10NW6NW6W4W4W5W5W4NW9NW8NW6NW7NW9
1 day agoNW15
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2 days agoCalmCalmE7SE3SE8--S6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Kettle Creek, Green Island, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Kettle Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:18 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM EST     0.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:05 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:42 PM EST     0.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10-000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.30.20.10-000.10.20.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:54 AM EST     2.62 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:12 AM EST     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:15 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:34 PM EST     1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EST     -2.39 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.21.22.32.62.21.40.5-0.5-1.4-2.3-2.9-2.6-1.7-0.411.81.91.40.7-0.2-0.9-1.7-2.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.