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FXUS61 KILN 111141 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 641 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to keep a dry weather pattern over the Ohio Valley for the remainder of the week. A dry cold front will cross the region Tuesday night and bring a small drop in temperatures for Wednesday in an otherwise warming trend for the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Building heights will accompany a westerly and then southwesterly wind shift today. The warmer air being worked in will cut cloud cover from southwest to northeast this in the late morning and early afternoon, with clear skies expected by nightfall.

Highs will range from the mid 30s to around 40.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Clear sky cover and a generally light wind under 5 mph from the south will permit temperatures to drop into the mid 20s tonight.

Southwest flow on Tuesday will increase and bring in a bit warmer air with highs ranging from the mid 40s with some upper 40s along and south of the Ohio River and in the lower Scioto Valley.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak and dry surface cold front to slip off to the southeast Tuesday night as high pressure begins to nose into the region.
Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures can be expected Tuesday night with lows ranging from the lower 20s to the upper 20s.

Split mid level flow develops with confluent region into the Ohio Valley at mid week. Large surface high pressure to become centered over ILN/s area Wednesday. Dry weather with temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below normal as forecast highs Wednesday range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Mid level ridging to build into the Ohio Valley as surface high pressure re-establishes over the area through the end of the week. This will lead to continued dry weather with a warming trend. Highs in the lower and middle 40s Thursday to warm to around 50 on Friday and Saturday.

Model solution spread is observed late this weekend as the mid ridge level ridge breaks down and a shortwave feature develops into the Great Lakes. Ensemble solutions lend evidence toward continued dry weather Sunday and therefore have kept daylight hours Sunday dry and limited any pops to slight chance over the southeast Sunday night. Mild temperatures continue with highs around 50 on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR cigs will persist this morning until winds shift more to the southwest, removing any cold advection in play. In the afternoon, cigs will scatter out and eventually clear by evening.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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