NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level ridge axis in place across the area this morning will begin to flatten out this afternoon as mid level energy rides over the top of it. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm again today with afternoon highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with a few mid 90s even possible. This will lead to some weak instability developing through the afternoon, with an axis of stronger instability remaining off to our west and northwest. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstormsto develop off to our northwest through mid afternoon and push southeast toward our area heading into late afternoon, although the better chance for any pcpn should hold off until this evening.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Weakening mid level energy will push east into our area tonight accompanied by a weak frontal boundary. As it does, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move southeast into mainly our western areas this evening. However, expect to see an overall weakening trend heading into tonight as the instability will be decreasing. Will therefore allow for some chance pops across our west early this evening and then taper back to just 20 poops heading east into tonight. The boundary will continue to push off to our east through the day on Saturday. Suppose it will be tough to rule out a few showers along the boundary across our southeast early Saturday morning, but the better chance for any pcpn will be mainly off to our southeast during the day. Lows tonight will be mostly in the 60s with highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
H5 ridge in place to start the period will quickly propagate eastward through the end of the weekend. How quickly this ridge shifts eastward will be important to monitor because in its wake, a robust, elongated trough will begin to carve its way through the Midwest. Showers/storms will accompany this trough, which could begin as early as Sunday afternoon based on latest guidance.
Instability is weaker on Sunday however, so thunderstorm coverage expected to be more limited. Instability levels will increase Monday into Tuesday, which will promote better thunderstorm potential. Long- range machine learning guidance not overly excited about severe potential, but will have to monitor trends in CAMs as we get closer.

Expecting periods of showers/storms Monday into Tuesday with the development of a surface low and a slow moving cold front to our west. QPF footprint continues to increase from ensemble guidance, with anomalous PWAT values increasing to the 1.75" range. Thus, some efficient rainfall may be observed as we finally receive a robust forcing mechanism and sufficient instability for thunderstorm development. This may help provide some short-term relief from the drought conditions.

Cold front moves through the region late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Near or just below seasonal normal temperatures will return by mid-week as relatively cooler air funnels in.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mostly clear skies and light winds early this morning may lead to some river valley fog with some MVFR to locally IFR vsbys possible at KLUK through daybreak. Otherwise, a few cu will be possible again later this morning and into this afternoon. Some mid level energy will approach from the west this evening and into tonight. This will result in some isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the tail end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.