Wayne Lakes, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wayne Lakes, OH

June 17, 2024 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 9:12 PM
Moonrise 4:06 PM   Moonset 1:59 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wayne Lakes, OH
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 623 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot and humid air mass settles into the Ohio Valley. While heat is the primary concern, a few storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening. Limited chances for rain exist on Tuesday, with drier conditions favored the remainder of the week. A subtle drop in humidity expected the latter half of the work week, but hot conditions will persist.

Warm air mass continues to build across the region, leaving overnight lows in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Other than the mild overnight lows, conditions remain fairly quiet across the area. Some CAMs try to bring the complex of storms in the Great Lakes south into our area, generating shower activity across our northern counties this morning. Not overly confident in this occurring - thus have kept out PoPs mention through the morning hours in our CWA

Regarding the heat headline: We have decided to upgrade the Excessive Heat Watch to a Heat Advisory for the entire week.

There is reasonable confidence today that a majority of our counties will reach or exceed 100 degree heat indicies, which is standard criteria for a Heat Advisory. These values could be met as early as 1-2PM. Even though storm potential still exists today, it is expected that storm coverage has the best chance of increasing by the late afternoon timeframe. Thus, heat indicies near 100 degrees will likely still be observed by most before any storms develop.

As for storm potential, there are plenty of CAMs that still want to initiate convection later this afternoon, with coverage increasing into the early evening. No large scale forcing or frontal boundary will help with timing and tracking storm activity... this is more of your typical single cell (popcorn)
thunderstorms that we observe during the summertime. Shear profiles will be quite unfavorable for any long-lived or multi- cell thunderstorm development. Thermodynamics on the other hand are quite alarming, with SBCAPE values near or exceeding 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values near or exceeding 1000 J/kg, along with steep 0-3km lapse rates. Any storms that do initialize could produce strong downbursts, with perhaps some hail if the storms can grow tall enough before collapsing.

Storm coverage expected to wane through the late evening and early overnight hours with the loss of diurnal heating. A slight uptick in overnight lows will occur Monday night as everyone in our fa is expected to observe low temps in the low to mid 70s.

Heat Advisory continues through the period on Tuesday as another hot and muggy day will be in store. Heat indicies are once again expected to peak near or just over 100 degrees. The area of high pressure continues to expand westward. As this does, precip chances will lower across our counties. However, still cannot rule out a stray shower or storm developing on Tuesday - mainly along/NW of I-71.

Upper ridge will become more expansive and reach its maximum strength and extent in the middle of the week. It will then very slowly start shifting south and become a little less intense later in the week. The pattern will then change over the weekend as a trough emerges out of the Canadian Rockies and strengthens as it heads into the Great Lakes squelching the ridge entirely.

Heat will build with highs reaching the mid 90s by Thursday and Friday. However, relatively drier low level air will get into the region on southeasterly flow allowing dew points to not be as high when temperatures are a few degrees warmer than previous days. This results in little change in maximum heat indices from day to day, generally peaking between 95 and 100 Wednesday through Saturday.
Although this falls short of the criteria of 100 for a heat advisory, this is a longer duration event with cumulative effects that could be hazardous to the public. Thus the time period previously covered by the excessive heat watch is now a heat advisory. There is the potential that at some point down the line the advisory will have to be extended into Saturday.

A cold front will be approaching the area on Sunday and this will bring the net appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Mid and lower levels will continue to saturate and provide a mix of mid and low level clouds that will move in from the south.
Winds generally remain below 10 kts out of the south-southwest through the taf period.

Main thing to keep an eye on is storm potential. While no large scale forcing is in place, there is a chance for pop-up showers/storms today, mainly in the afternoon/evening period.
The environment would be conducive to producing downbursts with any of these storms today. Given uncertainty in coverage/timing of isolated storms, just have a VCTS mention for now.

Precip chances will diminish early tonight. KLUK will have the potential for some vsby reductions due to BR.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080.

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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KVES DARKE COUNTY,OH 14 sm30 minSW 0810 smClear86°F70°F59%30.10
KRID RICHMOND MUNI,IN 21 sm25 minSW 0810 smClear81°F70°F70%30.13
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Wilmington, OH,

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