Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:51 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 753 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through this evening - .
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this morning. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.

ANZ500 753 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a stationary front will linger nearby tonight before a cold front tracks through on Thursday morning. A stronger cold front approaches the region on Friday into Saturday morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west by late in the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed at times from Thursday into the weekend.

FXUS61 KCTP 180857 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 457 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Mostly cloudy today with a shower in a couple of spots -Band of frontal rain showers moves through on Friday -Weekend cool down; frost/freeze risk Sunday & Monday A.M.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
North-south oriented occluded front stalls over the Susquehanna Valley today where hires ensemble guidance project the best odds for a couple of rain showers. Otherwise, expect considerable cloud cover with dry conditions prevailing most of the time especially to the west of the front along the Allegheny Plateau.
A moist southeast upslope flow will yield low clouds and areas of fog/drizzle over the Endless Mtns north of KIPT and the southwest Poconos/Coal Region around Schuylkill County. Highs will range from around 65-70 degrees in the south central valleys north of the WV/MD panhandle to 50-55 in the higher terrain along the border with WFOs BGM/PHI.

Low clouds and areas of fog/drizzle migrate westward into the central ridge and valley region overnight. Showers associated with an approaching cold front could reach the extreme western part of the CWA by daybreak Friday, but most likely hold off until after 12Z. Lows will range from around 40F on the ridgetops in Schuylkill & Sullivan County to 50F over southwest Somerset County.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Band of rain showers will accompany a cold front through CPA on Friday. PWs peak around 1" ahead of the front over far south central PA where some mdt to briefly heavy downpours/embedded t-storm cannot be ruled out - but overall lack of CAPE will allow the front to pass through with very light QPF <0.25 inch.

Cooler and drier air will arrive in CPA behind the cold front to start the weekend, directed by a west wind gusting 25-35 mph.
Shortwave trough crossing the eastern Great Lakes may touch of an isolated shower over north central PA. Sfc ridging will ensure dry weather Saturday night as focus shifts to frost/ freeze risk. There appears to be enough of a gradient to sustain west wind with some upslope low clouds likely getting trapped beneath the inversion to limit frost potential over the western mtns into early Sunday morning. So we would lean toward an advective marginal cold freeze setup for Saturday night into early Sunday morning (vs. more favorable radiational/decoupling frost pattern. Low temps are fcst in the 30-35F range over the northwest half of the CWA which could impact counties activating the growing season April 21 along the US200/I99/I80 corridor.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The bulk of model guidance supports dry conditions Sunday through through Tuesday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Upper-level troughing does support below-average temperatures for the majority of the period.

The combination of light winds, dry air, and mostly clear skies associated with the surface ridge is likely to result in areas of frost Sunday night into AM Monday. The greatest risk of frost is over the northern mountains where the growing season is not active, but areas in the growing season further south could also be affected.

Temperatures are expected to moderate by Tuesday with the surface high pressure shifting eastward off the east coast and an approaching shortwave brings the next chance of showers.
Ensemble plumes indicate the best chance for precipitation will come Tuesday PM.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Dissipating line of showers moving through the southeast part of the airspace KMDT/KLNS with expected minimal impact.
However, post showers may see a lowering of cigs and vsby in fog with raised low level moisture. Also expected MVFR/IFR cigs at western TAF sites KBFD/KJST from the earlier rain showers. VFR in between with a return to VFR late Thursday morning at all sites.

Another round of showers expected on Thursday, with lower conditions again.

Outlook...

Fri...CFROPA. Ocnl dips to IFR.

Sat...Light SHRA N, no sig wx elsewhere.

Sun-Mon...No sig wx.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:00 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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