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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1048 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late this evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 1048 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
high pressure builds south of the waters tonight before sliding offshore Thursday. Another frontal system moves through the area late in the week, with small craft advisories possible Thursday night and Friday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 300407 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1107 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
The early winter chill will lose its grip on central Pennsylvania tomorrow, as temperatures trend noticeably milder for the last day of November. Some rain will work into the area Thursday night and Friday to usher in the month of December, and unsettled weather is expected to continue through the weekend with periodic shower chances through early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Satellite loop at 03Z shows a thin layer of clouds at around 5kft still covering much of eastern and northern PA in association with a warmer southwest flow overrunning low level cold air. Linear extrapolation suggests clearing skies will overspread the rest of the forecast area between 03Z-05Z.

Surface ridging building into Southeast PA will result in the lightest winds and best radiational cooling over that part of the state late tonight, while a more active southwest breeze persists over the northwest counties. Thus, expect fairly uniform overnight min temps in the low to mid 20s for most locations.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure passing off of the east coast will supply fair and milder weather to the region Thursday. However, warm advection aloft ahead of a shortwave lifting out of the Ohio Valley is likely to spread varying amounts of high clouds into the region. See no reason to deviate from NBM max temps, which range from the 40s most spots, to around 50F in the southern valleys.

A southern stream shortwave is progged to approach from the Southern Plains Thursday night, then track over PA late in the day. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night, then a period of rain Friday, as isentropic lift and surging moisture arrive along the associated level jet. The most likely rainfall by Friday evening, as represented by the ensemble plumes, ranges from around 0.4 inches over the NW Mtn, to <0.10 inches south of I-80. Forecast soundings suggest it's not out of the question that a few wet snowflakes mix with the rain over the N Mtns Friday afternoon. However, surface temps should be too warm for any accumulation.

The shortwave and best forcing should exit the region by Friday evening. However, a lingering shallow layer of moisture could support spotty light rain/drizzle Friday night, mainly over the N Mtns where a southerly flow will support a bit of orographic forcing. Some fog is also possible Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The weekend will remain unsettled although temperatures will moderate thanks to prevailing southwesterly flow. The best chance for showers on Saturday appears to be across the northwest mountains as a center of low pressure crosses the Great Lakes. Sunday will be wetter with a more organized area of low pressure approaching the Middle Atlantic underneath the base of a deep upper trough.

The aforementioned trough is progged to slowly move through the northeast into early next week, which will bring continued chances for showers and gradually lower temperatures each day.
As the trough exits, northwest flow will build in by Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures tilt back to below average.
Showers will continue, especially across the Laurels and northwest mountains with snow mixing in occasionally thanks to cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The deck of mid level clouds that has been persistent today will quickly dissipate/exit the area by midnight ushering in clear skies across all but far northern Pennsylvania overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected at BFD, though clouds will likely scatter out toward daybreak resulting in a return to VFR conditions.
Despite clear skies and slackening winds, the very dry air should limit fog potential across Pennsylvania.

Clouds will return from the south on Thursday as VFR conditions and mostly cloudy skies continue. A 40-50kt jet at 850mb (2500 feet) on Thursday afternoon will produce LLWS conditions at BFD between 18Z and 06Z (Friday). Farther from the center of the low-level jet, brief LLWS conditions are possible between 00Z and 06Z at AOO, JST, and UNV.

Outlook...

Thu Night...LLWS northwest with lowering ceilings

Fri...Low cigs/rain likely, mainly PM. Fog possible overnight.

Sat...Lingering low cigs possible, mainly AM.

Sun-Mon...Light rain/restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:23 AM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:05 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:45 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:04 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:50 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:49 PM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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