Lancaster, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lancaster, PA

June 22, 2024 11:54 AM EDT (15:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 8:52 PM   Moonset 4:39 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1034 Am Edt Sat Jun 22 2024

Rest of today - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

Mon - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Mon night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue - NW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1034 Am Edt Sat Jun 22 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will remain anchored offshore today. A front will remain stationary near the great lakes Sunday before passing through the area early Monday. High pressure briefly returns to the waters Tuesday before another series of fronts cross Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure returns once again to the waters late next week. Small craft advisories are likely Sunday into Sunday night and possible Monday into Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lancaster, PA
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Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 221331 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 931 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Ongoing heat wave peaks this weekend with some relief in sight for Monday *Severe thunderstorm risk will ramp up over the weekend with scattered damaging winds most likely Sunday afternoon/evening *A shorter duration summertime hot spell will precede a round of t-storms into the middle of the last week of June

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Shallow patchy river valley fog over the NC Mountains has dissipated, so it's back to rinse and repeat (very hot and humid) to start the weekend as the early summer/mid June heat wave tops out over the entire CWA Record daily and even all- time monthly high temperatures will be challenged this afternoon with fcst maxT between 90-100F. Heat index values should reach high- end advisory levels and push warning criteria ~105F in portions of the mid and lower Susq Valley. Major to locally extreme heat risk impacts are likely to affect health systems, heat-sensitive industries, and some infrastructure along with anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The early season heat persisting over multiple days with light wind, limited cloud cover, and warm overnight temperatures will exacerbate heat stress. If you have plans to be outside, drink plenty of water even if you are not thirsty and have options for getting relief (shade or AC) from the heat. The lack of rain combined with the prolonged heat is also contributing to rapid onset drought risk in some areas.

In the midst of the heat and humidity, abundant CAPE will once again help fuel t-storm development within weak sfc troughing.
SPC has shifted the MRGL risk SWO eastward to only include the eastern third of the forecast area with scattered strong storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Deep layer wind fields remain weak, but should trend a bit stronger as mid level heights slowly fall as the upper ridge begins to shift or retrograde to the west/southwest.

Isolated evening t-storms should dissipate by late tonight. Warm and muggy overnight with low temps peaking in the upper 60s to mid 70s or +15-20F above the historical average for mid June - providing little to no relief from the daytime heat.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As we alluded to last night, it appears a more organized severe threat is evolving to break the heat wave with SPC ratcheting up the categorical svr tstm risk from level 1 to 2 out of 5 (MRGL to SLGT) for Sunday PM. A large scale upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast accompanied by stronger low/mid level flow overspreading a moderately unstable environment. Trailing cold front and prefrontal boundary should help to trigger scattered t-storms by the afternoon with potential for organized cells/clusters to produce damaging winds. There is a non-zero tornado threat, but higher probs are located farther to the north in New England where better low level shear/SRH combo overlap in closer proximity to sfc warm front.

WPC has maintained a MRGL risk ERO for Sunday over the Alleghenies given ribbon of higher pwats along the cold front, but forward progression will be limiting factor concerning flooding potential. Recent dryness has caused a large increase in FFG over most of CPA with the lowest values in the northern tier. The projected instability and available moisture should support local 1-2 in/hr rates in stronger storms, but overall flood risk is low. Storms should weaken moving to the southeast later Sunday night.

The 500mb trough swings through on Monday and could trigger another round of scattered showers/t-storms. However, drier or lower pwat air working into the area should result in a less favorable setup for severe storms and the new D3 SPC outlook call for general thunder. High pressure arrives by Monday night and will provide a mainly clear and comfortable night with valley fog and low temps dropping back closer to climo for this time of year in the 55-65F range.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
No substantial changes will be forthcoming with the late evening update. Frontal passage mid-week should knock back the return of the heat.

Prev...

Behind the cold front, we expect still warm but much less humid conditions to arrive by Monday and last into Tuesday, as dewpoints drop into the 50s. This temporary relief from the heat will give way to another surge of heat and humidity for late Tuesday through Wednesday before a more refreshing air mass arrives for Thursday and Friday of next week.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Patchy fog and low clouds across the northern tier will dissipate in the next few hours and will five way to VFR conditions. Very brief restrictions will be possible from an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, though coverage of storms looks to be fairly low. While any rain that develops will likely be accompanied by thunder, have held off on including thunder in any TAFs until timing of the storms becomes more clear. Today will be the warmest day of this stretch for most locations and pilots can expect high density altitude conditions.

Showers and storms will dissipate after sunset and VFR conditions are expected overnight. There could be some LLWS across the northwest as low level winds begin to increase ahead of an approaching frontal system, but there are differences in models as to how strong the winds at 2000 feet get, so have left it out of the BFD TAF for now.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions will be possible with thunderstorms in the afternoon. Continued heat will present density altitude concerns.

Mon...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in scattered SHRA/TSRA as a cold front crosses the area.

Tues...VFR, no sig wx expected.

Wed...Restrictions possible in thunderstorms.

CLIMATE
A heat wave will continue through the weekend with near-record temperatures forecast in some locations Saturday and Sunday.

Daily record highs for Saturday June 22 and Sunday June 23:

6/22 6/23 State College 93 (1988) 91 (1966) Harrisburg 97 (1988) 97 (1965) Williamsport 97 (1988) 94 (1923)
Altoona 91 (2022) 90 (1994)
Bradford 93 (2022) 86 (2013)

The following records have been set during this stretch of heat:

BFD: * A record high temperature of 89 degrees was tied at Bradford on Friday June 21st, tying the record set in 2022.
* A record high temperature of 90 degrees was set at Bradford on Thursday June 20th breaking the old record of 88 degrees set in 2012.
* A record high temperature of 88 degrees was set at Bradford on Wednesday June 19, breaking the old record of 87 degrees set in 1987.

IPT: * A record high temperature of 98 degrees was set at Williamsport on Friday June 21st, breaking the old record of 97 degrees set in 1923 and tied in 1933.

Highest Max Temperatures for Central Pennsylvania Observing sites for June (date of occurrence is in parentheses:

State College 96 in 1952 (26th) and 1933 (29th)
Harrisburg 100 in 1966 (27th), 1952 (26th), and 1934 (29th)
Williamsport 104 in 1925 (5th)
Altoona 97 in 1971 (28th) and 1953 (21st)
Bradford 93 in 2022 (22nd)

Longest run of consecutive days with max temp >=90 in June:

State College 6 (24-29th 1966) /current streak=0/ Harrisburg 10* (19-28th 1943) /current streak=5/ Williamsport 9 (18-26th 1923) /current streak=5/ Altoona 8 (13-20th 1994) /current streak=5/ Bradford 1 (20th 2024) /current streak=0/

*Harrisburg had a run of 11 days with temperatures greater than 90 degrees that started on 26th and ended on July 6th in 1901.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-042-045-046.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ028-036-049>053- 056>059-063>066.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 44 mi54 minSSW 2.9G8 85°F 83°F30.04
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 49 mi54 minSSE 2.9G8 87°F 30.03
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 50 mi54 min 83°F 80°F30.02


Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLNS LANCASTER,PA 6 sm61 minvar 0310 smClear90°F70°F52%30.04
KMQS CHESTER COUNTY G O CARLSON,PA 23 sm19 mincalm10 smClear90°F75°F63%30.05
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Wind History graph: LNS
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Tide / Current for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   
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Port Deposit
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Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.9
1
am
1.7
2
am
1.4
3
am
1.1
4
am
0.9
5
am
0.7
6
am
0.8
7
am
1.1
8
am
1.8
9
am
2.6
10
am
3.4
11
am
3.8
12
pm
3.9
1
pm
3.7
2
pm
3.3
3
pm
2.8
4
pm
2.3
5
pm
1.8
6
pm
1.3
7
pm
1
8
pm
0.9
9
pm
1
10
pm
1.4
11
pm
1.8


Tide / Current for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
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Sat -- 04:33 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:31 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:32 PM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1.4
2
am
1.1
3
am
0.7
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.5
6
am
0.8
7
am
1.3
8
am
1.9
9
am
2.5
10
am
2.8
11
am
2.8
12
pm
2.6
1
pm
2.2
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
1.3
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.4
8
pm
0.7
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
1.5
11
pm
1.7


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