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FXUS61 KPBZ 092350 AAB AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 650 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain will overspread the region this evening and continue through most of Sunday as a cold front approaches and crosses.
Rain will change over to snow Sunday night. A few inches may accumulate on the ridges into Monday. It will be a chilly Monday as temps won't get above freezing.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Evening update...Area of light rain continues to slowly move across eastern Ohio. The convection is decreasing as the thunderstorms run into a more stable atmosphere. Have removed most of the thunder overnight except for a period after midnight when the front crosses. Overnight lows and PoPs were updated with the latest NBM guidance.

Previous discussion...
The main period of rainfall will still occur in the tonight/Sunday morning period. This is associated with elongated trough extending into the Mississippi River Valley and a cold front crossing into the Ohio River Valley. Heavier rainfall potential has decreased significantly due to dry air over the Southeast and over the Great Lakes. According the grand ensemble of Hi-Res model guidance, probability of a half inch of rain is 80% for areas southeast of Pittsburgh by Sunday evening and only 10% for 1.00 inch of rainfall. Therefore, the Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall issued by the Weather Prediction Center has been removed for our County Warning Area (CWA) and river rises will likely not be impactful.



SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message: Rain changing to snow Sunday evening with few inches of accumulation in the mountains and north of I80. A winter weather advisory has been issued for eastern Tucker Co.
in WV.

Precipitation type will likely change from rain to snow late Sunday evening from northeast to southwest with the passage of the cold front. Snow character will start out as wet as model soundings depict a deep layer stable air extending from 850mb to 500mb and temp profiles hugging the -10C isotherm. Models have been consistent that 2 to 5 inches of snow will accumulate in eastern Tucker over the last 48 hours. Probability of 2 inches is over 90% for eastern Tucker, 65% for 4 inches of higher. With low probabilities for 6 inches (33%) or higher, decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory opposed to a Winter Storm Warning. If confidence increases, the ridges of the Laurel Highlands and eastern Preston county may be included in the Winter Weather Advisory in the next forecast update.

With prevailing northwest flow and passing upper-lvl trough over the Great Lakes, training convection snow bands may create an additional 1-2 inches north of Pittsburgh early Monday morning through early Monday afternoon. Ridging and westerly flow will like diminish the chances of snow by 7pm Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ridging over the Central Appalachians will likely clear the sky Monday night. Therefore early morning lows on Tuesday will still dip into the 20s. If gusty winds remain elevated, apparent temperatures could drop into the single digits in the higher terrain.

Dry weather will then take hold for the remainder of the extended period, with quasi-zonal flow Tuesday and Wednesday eventually giving way to strong ridging over the Eastern CONUS. Temperatures will moderate close to normal in this pattern for Tuesday. A weak and likely dry frontal passage Wednesday may drop temps slightly below normal again for Wednesday. The rising heights will create a slow warming trend Thursday and Friday, perhaps to above-normal levels.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High confidence forecast in CIGS save for DUJ where they could stay MVFR thru tonight into Sunday morning.

Where TAFs could go astray: - precip may end 1-2 hours earlier than forecast, especially at PIT to MGW and points west - visibilities could drop to IFR briefly in heavier showers

A cold front approaches the region Sunday. Ahead of it, showers before the main coastal low takes over and it become a rain shield Sunday morning onward. PTYPE is forecast to be all rain.
LBE and DUJ will have rain the longest, while ZZV has it the shortest duration and could see a period of VFR weather Sunday morning.

Wind shear is a concern this evening with the strong southerly flow. There have been a few PIREPS of wind shear, so will keep that given NBM and HRRR are illustrating it.

Wind will be from the south through most of the night around 10 kts. It will switch to the west early morning Sunday. Brief gusts to 20kts are possible this evening.

OUTLOOK
Restrictions in snow and rain Sunday night into Monday at terminals close to the mountains. A return to VFR is expected Monday night and should persist through much of next week with building high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ514.

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