Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seven Springs, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Another round of showers/storms are possible this evening/overnight but should be more scattered in nature. These storms could but present a slightly higher wind gust potential.

2) After a break on Sunday, daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday and remain in the forecast through at least Thursday with both the potential for strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are attempting to develop along a nominal surface dewpoint gradient and marginal upper support as of 630pm, stretching from central OH into northwest PA. Notable mid-level dry air seen via Satellite and ACARS soundings have made storm up growth more of a slog. However, ~25kts effective shear with mlCAPE values above 2000 J/kg are allowing a few more to become organized, especially as their initial updrafts moisten the near-storm air, and offering greater risks for damaging winds with above 1000 J/kg DCAPE available areawide.

For the rest of the evening, damaging wind is likely to be the primary risk as storms progress east, especially if stronger cold pools develop to aide in storm clustering. Flash flooding is not likely due to lower rainfall rates (PWAT is down and slowly falling) than prior days' values while forward storm motion of 25 mph should limit rain duration at a given location.
If any flooding occurs, it will be in areas with poor drainage or previously experiencing flooding that sees a storm that better maximizes rainfall rates.

Both threats should lower after 10pm but may not completely end as elevated buoyancy and shortwave movement maintains varying storm chances before exiting southeast of the region by early Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Surface and shortwave ridging provide for a brief reprieve from the daily rounds of storms on Sunday.

Very broad troughing will remain in place until at least Wednesday before a stronger shortwave deepens the trough over the Great Lakes.
With prevailing W-NW flow and disturbances passing through the upper pattern, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for more organized convective complexes as hinted to in some of the guidance. Precipitable water values remain above- normal in a climatological sense through this period, and as several areas already well saturated, will generally take less precipitation to pose a flood risk. As such, WPC does have portions of the upper Ohio in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall Monday- Wednesday. Think it could be very well be possible a Flood Watch is issued at some point during this time frame but there remains some run to run spatial inconsistency, which will be better resolved in the 12-24 hour time scale as the day priors convection may shift where the threat is the next day.

In addition to the flood threat, severe weather chances show an uptick as well, particularly earlier in the week according to the long-range machine-learning convective guidance. This makes sense, as this period shows the best juxtaposition of instability, moderate deep-layer shear, and decent low-level flow. Some uncertainty remains among the various ensemble members that will be better resolved in time.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR favored for the majority of the TAF period with isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms possible through early Sunday morning ahead of a nominal surface boundary. The environment remains conducive to thunderstorm development outside of excessive dry air aloft, but limited forcing likely will keep storm coverage low and make terminal impacts more uncertain.
Outside of FKL/DUJ, where storms are closer to impact, keep thunderstorm chances to PROB30 groups with updated timing based on where storms initiated this afternoon.

Pending early morning clearing, there is potential for a short period of IFR cigs/vsbys in lower stratus/fog but confidence in low in timing and coverage of such restrictions. Any that do develop will mix out by 15z as diurnal heating scatters out residual clouds.

Outlook...
Active weather returns Monday through the later half of the week with varying rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Timing of storms for a given day is likely to be of lower confidence and dependent on upstream storm progression. Most restrictions during this period will be tied to storm activity and/or morning fog/stratus resultant of rain plus overnight clearing.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.