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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain through the night.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.

ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay..
low pressure will slide by to the north today. A stronger frontal system looks to cross the waters Sunday into Monday. Another area of low pressure may impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the waters by late next week. Small craft advisories may be needed early next week.

FXUS61 KCTP 021649 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1149 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A mild Saturday afternoon is in store, followed by a period of rain tonight into early Sunday. Cooler conditions will arrive Sunday night into Monday, with a weak clipper system impacting the by midweek. Temperatures should moderate by the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lingering fog is finally lifting/mixing out late this morning.
There are some breaks in the clouds across the southern Alleghenies, and temperatures have rebounded quickly there into the low 50s.

Lingering low clouds over the Susq Valley should mix out this afternoon, but there are already high clouds pushing in ahead of our next weather-maker.

Temperatures will be mild areawide this afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across the Endless Mountains to the upper 50s across the valleys of southern PA. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early December.

Rain will overspread the area from south to north this evening into tonight, as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Rain will continue into Sunday morning before gradually pulling away from the area as the day progresses. A solid half an inch (or more) of rain is expected across all but far NW PA. This will be a beneficial rainfall, especially across south-central PA where we are still running notable year-to-date rainfall deficits.

As low pressure pushes up the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday night, it will drag a cold front across the area and usher a chillier airmass for early next week. Scattered rain and snow will continue across the western highlands into Monday before briefly tapering off Monday night.

By Tuesday, eyes turn to a clipper-system approaching from the Lower Great Lakes. It looks like this system will be weakening and rather moisture-starved as it slides just to our south, but it should be enough to produce some light rain and snow. We could see some light snow accumulation across the western highlands, likely focused on the Laurel Highlands if the system does pass just to our south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Late evening update.

For the period late next week, models show a small chance of mainly rain, perhaps mixed with show early on. Pattern would suggest mainly dry weather, but went with low POPS, given models and other nearby offices.

Early evening update.

Inverted trough could bring some snow to the far southwest early on, as already noted in the fcst.

A southwest milder flow of air expected after wed.

Earlier discussion below.

Clipper system diving southeast from the Great Lakes across southwest PA Tuesday PM remains in focus with potential for accumulating snow at higher elevations. We continued to take POPs higher particularly over the Laurel Highlands. The upper trough is slow to depart which could linger rain/snow well into Wednesday over the favored upslope areas.

Northerly flow behind the departing Clipper under a deep upper trough will continue colder temp trend (near to below climo)
through the middle of next week.

Another shot of rain/snow is possible later next week particularly across northern PA as low pressure tracks through southeastern Canada. Temps are currently projected to rebound slightly above average into next weekend.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The widespread LIFR to VLIFR conditions impacting many airfields across Central PA and the Susq Valley this mid morning hour will very slowly improve through 13-15Z before some breaks in the clouds move overhead and cause enough warming of the sfc and vertical mixing to lift categories to IFR and MVFR. Still, weak low to mid-level ridging drifting over much of Central PA and the Susquehanna Valley today won't be sufficient to significantly break up a dual-layered cloud deck (containing a several KFT layer of dry air in between) with winds remaining fairly light.

The best conditions to start the day will be found across the Laurel Highlands where a light to moderate swrly breeze and the strongest subsidence/deepest dry air at low to mid levels will be found - leading to IFR and areas of MVFR.

Slow improvement to MVFR or even low-end VFR cigs and vsbys will occur for this afternoon into early this evening before a second round of rain arrives from the southwest tonight and lowers conditions dramatically to IFR and LIFR once again.

Model soundings currently indicate the potential for BFD to remain IFR through 21Z before some slight improvement occurs.

Outlook...

Tonight-Sun...Periods of light rain/reduced cigs expected.

Mon-Wed...Chance of light rain/snow.

CLIMATE
Williamsport Monthly (November) and Seasonal (Fall) Climate Summary: ------------------------------------------------------------- The average temperature for November was of 41.3F or -0.6F below the 30yr mean. The average maximum temperature was 51.4F or +0.8F above normal while the average minimum temperature was 31.3F or -1.9F below normal. The most notable callout last month was the -1.74" departure from normal in precipitation with only 1.51" (24th driest). For the Fall/Autumn season spanning the 3-month period from September to November, it was a rather mild and dry ranking as T-20th warmest (54.9F mean temp) and 23rd driest (7.15" total precip or -4.56" below normal).

Harrisburg Monthly (November) and Seasonal (Fall) Climate Summary: -------------------------------------------------------------- The average temperature for November was of 44.7F or -0.2F below the 30yr mean (T-50th warmest). The average maximum temperature was 55.0F or +1.1F above normal (T-30th warmest)
while the average minimum temperature was 34.4F or -1.4F below normal. The total precipitation last month was 2.49" or -0.48" below normal. For the Fall/Autumn season spanning the 3-month period from September to November, it was a quite mild ranking as 15th warmest (57.6F mean temp). The total precip was 9.39" or -2.22" below normal.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Middle Branch
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Sat -- 05:37 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EST     0.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:58 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:59 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Fells Point
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Sat -- 05:25 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:46 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:42 PM EST     1.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fells Point, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

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