Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mantoloking, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:29PM Monday July 6, 2020 6:00 AM EDT (10:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 401 Am Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms early this afternoon. A chance of tstms late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Tstms likely early in the evening, then a chance of tstms in the late evening and overnight. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds, becoming mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds after midnight.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog early in the morning. A chance of tstms early in the morning. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the morning. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms early in the evening. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 401 Am Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A frontal boundary will lift north and stall across northern new jersey and east central pa today. The boundary will progress north of the area on Tuesday. A summer-like pattern will then persist throughout the week with scattered showers and Thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm will the region Friday through Saturday as it moves north from the carolinas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantoloking borough, NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 060735 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 335 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will lift north and stall across northern New Jersey and east central PA today. The boundary will progress north of the area on Tuesday. A summer-like pattern will then persist throughout the week with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected most days along with above average temperatures. A coastal storm will the region Friday through Saturday as it moves north from the Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. High pressure remains off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and southwest flow behind the high will result in a hot and humid airmass spreading into the region. Surface dew points will be in the upper 60s to low 70s this morning, but with some afternoon mixing, those dew points should drop off a bit, somewhat, into the upper 60s to around 70. Highs today will be quite hot, topping off in the low to mid 90s, except for the urban corridor, which will be in the mid to upper 90s.

The Heat Index today will top off in the mid to upper 90s south and east of the Fall Line, and will be around 100 along the urban corridor. With the Heat Index likely reaching 100 at some point this afternoon, will go ahead and hoist a heat Advisory for the urban corridor for this afternoon.

A weak cold front lies across northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania, and this front will slide east throughout the day. An upper trough lies over the Northeast, and west to northwest flow aloft will be over the region. Some strong shortwaves will dive into eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey this afternoon.

With this heat and humidity, there will be abundant energy across the region, with SB CAPE values as high as 3000-4000 J/kg, and ML MUCAPE values 4000-5000 J/kg. PWATs will be around 2 inches, so will expect heavy rain from storms. The question is how much shear there will be, as the 00Z NAM indicating 20-25 kt 0-6 km Bulk Shear. If it becomes a little stronger, generally 25-30 kt, convection could become more organized, and more widespread severe thunderstorms will be possible. Downdraft CAPE will be around 1500 J/kg, so strong and damaging wind gusts are possible. Wet Bulb 0 heights will also be 11,000-12,000 feet, so some hail is possible as well.

The other thing to watch out for is afternoon sea breezes coming off the ocean, as those boundaries could become a trigger for convection before the cold front arrives.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Convection continues in the evening hours as more shortwaves approach from the west and the cold front slowly works its way south through the region. CAPE values will diminish a bit after sunset with loss of diurnal heating, but strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop, as the warm and unstable airmass remains in place.

The bulk of the activity should taper off by midnight or so, but storms producing heavy rain remain possible through the late night hours.

Another humid night on tap with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Summary: The extended forecast will feature continually active convective weather likely through next weekend, although the primary focus will be the influence of a departing coastal southern stream low Friday and Saturday.

Synoptic pattern: A fairly progressive pattern is expected, synoptically speaking, into this coming weekend. Tuesday will start with an upper trough departing eastward over the north Atlantic then as trough axis moves from the Great Lakes region east toward the Canadian maritimes by early Thursday. Ridging will follow briefly in the trough's wake late Thursday into Friday, then the attention turns to the southern stream trough digging across the Midwest and eventually into the southeast by Saturday. This trough will be the driver of the next synoptically forced system to impact our region into the weekend. Thankfully, it appears that the medium range guidance is coming into better agreement with regard to timing and evolution of the synoptic pattern during this period.

Sensible weather: The main theme for the upcoming long term period is "unsettled." Basically every day will probably feature convection in some way, shape, or form, however the mesoscale details beyond Tuesday are essentially impossible to determine this far out.

Southerly surface flow will persist Tuesday and Wednesday pumping a continual stream of warm and humid air into the region from the south. So it'll be quite warm and humid, but not excessively so. Expect maximum temperatures nearing 90 degrees and minimums around 70 both days along with dewpoints around 70 degrees along with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the late afternoon and evening time frame.

Tuesday's convection and severe weather environmental setup will be similar to today's with the exception of a few things. Lapse rates will be lower (~6 C/km), so there won't be nearly as much of a hail threat. Precipitable water values will be about the same (1.7-1.9"), but the steering flow will be roughly parallel to the main initiating boundary (oriented E-W across central NJ and eastern PA). So flash flooding could be more of a concern. MLCAPE will remain high (~3000 J/kg) south of the boundary with DCAPE locally over 1000 J/kg. Deep layer shear for organization will be considerably less and flow aloft for forcing is also much less than today, so coverage appears to be much lower. Nonetheless, we will need to watch for wet microburst potential and flash flooding threats with Tuesday's convection.

Synoptically speaking, Thursday appears to be the driest day as a somewhat more prominent ridge passes to our north leading to more subsidence locally. With that said, could still see more isolated convective activity on Thursday. Surface flow will turn more southeasterly as a surface low takes shape across the coastal Carolinas. Still expecting highs right around 90 degrees and lows around 70.

Guidance has come into better agreement that the southern stream coastal low will lift north into the Mid-Atlantic Friday and depart Saturday. This system will bring precipitable water values nearing the "extreme" range for this latitude with values of 2.25-2.50" depicted by the GFS. The precipitation evolution of this system is still quite unclear at this time. I suspect there will be some sort of showery tropical band or bands of rain that lifts north across the eastern portion of the forecast area on Friday followed by more diurnally driven convection later in the day as instability builds. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep the highest QPF offshore, but with surface flow turning easterly with high moisture content, it's difficult to believe that QPF amounts will remain low over land.

On Saturday, the surface low will be departing to the north, but the upper trough axis will remain to our west along with a very soupy airmass and diurnally driven instability. So will still expect to see widespread convection with heavy rain potential. The main takeaway is that there is a heavy rain and potentially flash flooding threat with this system. Thankfully the system will be moving quickly, but it's something that will need to be watched closely.

Temperatures are a bit uncertain Friday and Saturday since cloud cover is a big question mark as of now, but with the tropical airmass that will be advected northward, I see no reason why we couldn't still get highs around 90 degrees. As you may have guessed, dewpoints will rise into the mid 70s Friday and Saturday, so it'll be quite uncomfortably humid regardless of the temperature. Long story short, expect Friday and Saturday to be very warm, wet, and humid.

Without any sort of strong cold front in the wake of this system, it'll likely remain quite warm and humid into early next week.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today . Mainly VFR. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA will result in MVFR or IFR conditions should storm pass over a given terminal. Thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain, small hail, and strong wind gusts. S- SW winds 10 kt or less. Sea breezes possible as well today. Moderate confidence.

Tonight . SHRA/TSRA in the evening will begin to wind down, but will become more scattered after midnight. Heavy rain and strong wind gusts possible in TSRA in the evening. SW winds less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Tuesday through Thursday . Prevailing VFR expected, however scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally between 18Z and 06Z each day, may locally lower restrictions. Winds will be generally southerly around 5-10 kts.

Friday . MVFR ceilings probable with southeasterly to easterly winds around 5-10 kts. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms will lower visibility and ceiling restrictions locally.

MARINE. Today through tonight . Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and continue into tonight, and those storms will be capable of heavy rain resulting in reduced visibilities, small hail, strong thunderstorm wind gusts.

Outlook .

Conditions are forecast to remain below advisory criteria through Thursday, however southerly winds may gust up to 20 kts at times. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Thursday, which may locally increase winds and seas.

On Friday, seas will build and may exceed 5 feet as winds become easterly and increase to 15 kts with higher gusts possible. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible on Friday.

Rip Currents .

There is a low risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents today through Tuesday. However, conditions may be locally moderate near the times of low tide owing to increasing southerly flow through the period.

EQUIPMENT. The NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park, PA (WNG704) remains off the air until further notice due to damage to the antenna during the June 3 derecho.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-102-104-106. NJ . Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ015-017>019. DE . Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD . None. MARINE . None.

Synopsis . Staarmann Near Term . MPS Short Term . MPS Long Term . Staarmann Aviation . MPS/Staarmann Marine . MPS/Staarmann Equipment . WFO PHI


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi35 min 75°F3 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi43 min W 7 G 8 75°F 78°F1015.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 29 mi21 min WNW 3.9 G 7.8 75°F1014.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi49 min W 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi43 min 75°F 76°F1015.2 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi43 min SW 5.1 G 5.1
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi43 min W 5.1 G 5.1 76°F 1015 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi31 min SSW 4.1 73°F 1017 hPa71°F
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 43 mi85 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 82°F1014.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi43 min 74°F 72°F1015.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi21 min WSW 9.7 G 12 76°F 76°F1015 hPa74°F

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi65 minSW 510.00 miFair73°F0°F%1015.5 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi61 minno data10.00 miFair0°F0°F%1015.2 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ15 mi65 minWSW 710.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5S6S6SW6W6W6CalmW8NW7NW7E10SE8SE6CalmS3S5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW6SW4SW5SW5
1 day agoNE5NE6NE7N9NE65NW7E3E7E7E6SE6SE5S5SE5SE7SE4S3S3S4CalmS3SW4SW5
2 days agoW3W5NW7NW9NW6NW7N6NW8N4E8SE6SE6SE6SE5E10E11E7SE4E5E5E6NE5NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:12 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.20.20.10-0-00.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.20.10000.10.20.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     -3.21 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:52 AM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:37 PM EDT     -2.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:59 PM EDT     2.82 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.5-2.4-3.1-3.1-2.1-0.70.71.92.21.810-0.9-1.6-2.3-2.4-1.6-0.31.22.42.82.41.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.