Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mantoloking, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:37PM Thursday November 21, 2019 2:47 PM EST (19:47 UTC) Moonrise 1:42AMMoonset 3:04PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1228 Pm Est Thu Nov 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday evening...
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
ANZ400 1228 Pm Est Thu Nov 21 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will continue building to the south of the forecast area today. Low pressure will pass from the great lakes toward the canadian maritimes through late Friday pushing a cold front across our region on Friday. Low pressure will develop across the southern appalachians and move northeast through the region late Saturday into early Sunday. High pressure then returns through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mantoloking borough, NJ
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location: 40.06, -74.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 211526 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1026 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will continue building to the south of the forecast area today. Low pressure will pass from the Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes through late Friday pushing a cold front across our region on Friday. Low pressure will develop across the southern Appalachians and move northeast through the region late Saturday into early Sunday. High pressure then returns through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The ridge axis is just west of the area during the mid-morning and will cross the area this afternoon. Beautiful sunny skies are expected thru the day with some Ci clouds increasing later on.

As the ridge axis moves through the CWA today, and this will allow winds to decrease and back to a more westerly or southwesterly direction by afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong surface low in the Great Lakes region will quickly allow for the pressure gradient to return tonight as it continues northeastward. This will result in gradually increasing south to southwest winds overnight. Additionally, the attendant trough will aid in improving large- scale lift with warm advection commencing by this evening. Clouds should begin to increase overnight, and with a lack of complete decoupling (at least away from sheltered valley locations), temperatures should be fairly mild.

I adjusted the Highs today up a degree or two, but the expected readings will be near seasonal averages (not straying far from yesterday's values). The hourly temps were adjusted with a few stations heating faster than earlier expected. Tonight's temperatures will also be milder than last nights by several degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A digging and pivoting northern-stream vort max will move through southeast Canada and the northeastern U.S. on Friday, allowing a surface low to move through southern Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes by early Saturday morning. An attendant cold front will progress through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, but it will be weakening as it impinges on increased ridging in the western Atlantic and reduced large-scale ascent well south of the migrating vort max. As a result, not expecting much precipitation to develop along the front as it passes through the region, though the deterministic models are a little wetter than the simulations depicted yesterday. Looks like the best chances are in the southern CWA, as a midlevel speed max provides increased support coincident with a weaker southern-stream perturbation moving through the southern Mid-Atlantic.

PoPs are generally in the slight-chance to chance range across the area, highest (up to around 50 percent) in southern New Jersey and Delmarva. QPF for most locations should be under a quarter inch, but cannot rule out some higher amounts in the far south. Given the low PoPs, not expecting everyone to get wet, either.

It will be fairly warm in advance of the front as rather strong warm advection occurs downstream of the approaching trough. The warm weather also ensures precipitation will be all liquid. After frontal passage, winds will switch to northwest and become gusty (20 to 30 mph) in the afternoon and evening.

Cold advection will be strong upstream of the front, and this will result in a much colder night across the area. With skies rapidly clearing and winds expected to diminish fairly quickly after the gustier period in the afternoon/evening, expect temperatures to be 10+ degrees colder than Thursday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The main story early in this period will be the low pressure system still progged to move through the area late Saturday into Sunday. To start the period early Saturday, ridge of high pressure will be located along the east coast with an area of low pressure associated with the southern stream over Tennessee. The day will get off to a mostly clear and chilly start however through the course of the day the high will move off the coast while low pressure approaches as it moves NE into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to skies becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon with rain likely developing towards the late afternoon / early evening time frame from SW to NE. Highs Saturday generally range from around 40 over the southern Poconos to the upper 40s over the Delmarva.

For Saturday night, aformentioned low moves NE into western PA driven by strong but progressive southern stream upper level wave. Forecast models also continue to indicate there will likely be at least some phasing with a northern stream wave dropping through the Great Lakes. Rain will become more widespread through Saturday evening with the tricky part of the forecast being Precip types over northern zones. Temperatures aloft will be above freezing with the strong warm air advection however there looks to be a low level layer near or below freezing over the north so we still think there will likely be some freezing rain over the southern Poconos and possibly parts of Sussex Co, NJ. Best chances for this look to be elevations above 1500 feet or so. Elsewhere, should be all rain.

By Sunday morning, rain will still be ongoing over most of the area (with some freezing rain still possible in the far north) as a secondary low looks to take shape near the NJ coast. This low will move NE towards New England through the day as it deepens and will bring the precip to an end from west to east as it moves away. Precip should wind down in the morning over much of eastern PA and the Delmarva but possibly not until into the afternoon over portions of northern NJ. While the system will have a fair amount of moisture with it and good dynamics, the progressive nature of it should limit total rain amounts to around .75 to 1.00 inches so not expecting any hydro issues. Otherwise it will start to turn a bit breezy with some sunny breaks possible by Sunday afternoon and temperatures remaining on the cool side.

Heading into next week, the weather pattern looks to be overall not too active for this region. High pressure moves in Monday and should influence our weather right through Tuesday bringing dry weather with sunshine for both day and temperatures returning to more seasonable levels. A low pressure system passing N/W of the region may then bring some showers by next Wednesday as its associated cold front moves through.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today . VFR with winds backing to a west or southwest direction by afternoon, possibly becoming predominantly southerly by sunset. Speeds generally under 10 kt. High confidence.

Tonight . VFR with south to southwest winds up to 10 kt. Clouds will be increasing and lowering to 5-10 kft by morning. Moderate confidence.

Outlook .

Friday . Brief restrictions possible with a chance of showers. However, conditions should be predominantly VFR. Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west to northwest during the afternoon. Gusts to 20+ kt possible. Moderate confidence.

Friday night . Mainly VFR with northwest winds 5 to 15 kt, possibly with lingering gusts in the evening. Moderate confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night . VFR initially with sub VFR conditions by Saturday night as a system moves through with rain. The rain should overspread the region SW to NE late in the day and through the overnight hours. Winds 5 kts or less initially west becoming variable. Moderate confidence.

Sunday . Lingering sub-VFR restrictions likely in the morning. Clearing skies throughout the day. Winds becoming northwest around 10 kts with higher gusts. Low confidence on timing.

Sunday night through Monday . mainly VFR.

MARINE.

Winds are expected to stay below criteria through tonight, as directions switch to southwest. Speeds will increase overnight, approaching advisory criteria after midnight. Have issued another small craft advisory beginning at 2 am tonight.

Seas are expected to range from 2 to 4 feet through tonight.

For Delaware Bay, sub-advisory conditions are expected through the period.

Outlook .

Friday and Friday night . Small craft advisory is in effect through midnight Friday night for the Atlantic waters. Advisory conditions are also possible on lower Delaware Bay. Southwest winds in the morning will become west to northwest by late afternoon as a cold front moves through. Winds should diminish late Friday night.

Saturday . Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Saturday night . Marginal SCA conditions possible with rain.

Sunday . Rain ending west to east but SCA conditions likely due to gusty NW winds behind the departing low.

Sunday night through Monday . SCA conditions may linger into Sunday evening but should diminish by Monday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NJ . None. DE . None. MD . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday night for ANZ450>455.

Synopsis . Fitzsimmons Near Term . CMS/PO Short Term . CMS Long Term . Fitzsimmons Aviation . CMS/Fitzsimmons/PO Marine . CMS/Fitzsimmons/PO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 25 mi48 min 55°F3 ft
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 28 mi60 min W 5.1 G 8 51°F 45°F1020.6 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 29 mi38 min W 7.8 G 12 49°F 55°F1020.1 hPa35°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 37 mi66 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 52°F 43°F1021.2 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi60 min 54°F 49°F1020.1 hPa
MHRN6 41 mi60 min WNW 5.1 G 6
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi60 min S 1 G 2.9 51°F 1020.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi78 min NW 1.9 54°F 1022 hPa34°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 44 mi60 min 50°F 51°F1020.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi58 min NW 9.7 G 12 47°F 56°F2 ft1020.1 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Sandy Hook, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ9 mi1.9 hrsW 310.00 miFair52°F32°F47%1021.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi2.8 hrsW 710.00 miFair52°F34°F50%1021.5 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ15 mi1.9 hrsNNW 510.00 miFair51°F34°F52%1021.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBLM

Wind History from BLM (wind in knots)
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NW11NW7NW7NW9NW7NW7NW9NW5NW8W8CalmW6NW7NW10NW55W3W7
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2 days agoNW10NW8NW6NW5NW4NW4W4W4W3SW5W3W4W6W5SW3S4S4W5W6W8W8W10W9W11

Tide / Current Tables for Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey
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Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:07 AM EST     0.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:20 PM EST     0.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.30.20.20.10.10

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST     2.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EST     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:32 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:03 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:10 PM EST     2.55 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:29 PM EST     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.12.41.910.1-0.9-1.6-2.2-2.5-2-0.80.71.92.52.31.40.4-0.6-1.5-2.2-2.8-2.7-1.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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