Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mantoloking, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. A strong cold front will bring rain showers to the area tonight into Sunday.

2. Widespread minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with tonight's high tide.

3. Much colder air early next week with frost/freeze conditions, followed by a return to above average temperatures later in the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will bring rain showers to the area tonight into Sunday.

A cold front will move into the area late tonight and should move off the coast by mid day Sunday. This front, combined with the surface low sliding along the front, will provide enough lift for widespread rain across the area. Chances for measurable rain range from 70 to 90 percent. That being said, this is unlikely to result in substantial rain amounts. Storm (shower)
motions should be relatively fast, and the front itself has trended faster. Thus, rain amounts are forecast to be a few hundredths of an inch up to one half an inch.

In terms of other hazards, instability, especially surface or low level based instability is forecast to be very limited (less than 50 J/kg of CAPE). Thus the risk for other thunderstorm hazards is very low. That being said, there is some very elevated instability (for parcels above 850 mb), especially west of the fall line, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder or gusty winds.

Though this is a strong cold front, the temperature difference won't feel as dramatic as it could, thanks to a marine layer staying mostly in place over our region today. None the less, for most inland areas, temperatures on Sunday will be 5 to 20 degrees colder as compared to Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River with tonight's high tide.

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, as well as along Delaware Bay and up the tidal Delaware River for the high tide cycles tonight.

High astronomical tides associated with the New Moon that occurred yesterday and onshore flow today and tonight is forecast to result in widespread minor tidal flooding with tonight's high tide along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. A northeast to east wind will become southeasterly by later today into this evening, with surge values increasing to near 1 foot above normal. This will put most tidal areas into minor flood stage during high tide tonight.

A modest offshore wind will develop in the wake of a cold front on Sunday, which should limit the risk of any additional flooding for Sunday night's high tide.

No tidal flooding is forecast for our portion of the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Much colder air early next week with frost/freeze conditions, followed by a return to above average temperatures later in the week.

A cold mid-level trough, surface high pressure, clear skies, and light winds all look likely Monday night. As a result, we are expecting efficient radiational cooling conditions and a widespread freeze event early Tuesday morning.

Frost early Tuesday morning might be somewhat limited given a much drier low-level air mass is expected to be in place. But outside of the larger cities and away from the immediate coast, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing. In some cases, well below freezing.

All of our counties now have an active growing season due to the recent excessive warmth. Blooms/vegetation have quickly initiated and in some cases are ahead of schedule.

With this mind, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s across the region, which is several degrees below average. A return, southerly, flow will become established Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. This along with an increase in warm air advection and rising heights will result in temperatures climbing back above average Wednesday through Friday. A warm front may arrive at the end of the week.

As of now, rainfall Monday through Friday of next week looks to be on the lighter side, maybe a 0.10 to 0.50 for the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Another low cloud deck will move over the region with persistent onshore flow pattern. Mainly MVFR ceilings far inland towards ABE/RDG and IFR cigs for the I-95 terminals.
Closer to the coast, IFR/LIFR conditions have already developed and will persist through the period. Additionally, some visibility restrictions to MVFR with SHRA and patchy fog is possible, particularly after 06Z. Winds should generally favor southeasterly through most of the night, with wind speeds of 5 to 15 kt. LLWS possible for a short period around 05-07Z across MIV/ACY with the LLJ surging ahead of the front. FROPA expected to begin around 09-12Z with the front around the I-95 corridor by 12Z. Winds will shift northwest and begin to surge to 15 to 25 knots behind the front.

Sunday.. MVFR in showers and fog through the morning and into the early afternoon as a cold front pushes through the rest of the region. Improvement to VFR conditions in the afternoon from west to east. Northwesterly winds persist at 15 to 25 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. West-northwest wind gusts to around 20 knots Monday, quickly diminishing Monday night.

Wednesday...Some MVFR conditions are possible at times due to showers.

Thursday...VFR conditions expected.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Marine Dense Fog Advisory through late tonight with visibilities around 1 NM or less.

Sunday...Winds will shift to northwesterly and increase quickly behind a cold front Sunday Morning. Expect SCA conditions on all waters through the day time. There is a 40% chance that wind speeds exceed gale criteria for a brief period behind the front, particularly at the mouth of the Delaware Bay. However, for now, widespread SCA looks more likely, so have issued an SCA for the coastal waters out to 20 NM. For the outer marine areas (20 to 60 NM), winds are likely to stay below gale criteria.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ012>014- 020>027.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430- 431-450>455.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ431-451>455- 481>483-485.