Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Croydon, PA
September 23, 2023 3:56 AM EDT (07:56 UTC)
Sunrise 6:46AM Sunset 6:57PM Moonrise 3:37PM Moonset 12:00AM
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1110 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this evening, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Isolated tstms. Rain in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers in the morning, then showers likely with isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this evening, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain after midnight. Rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Isolated tstms. Rain in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers in the morning, then showers likely with isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1110 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure to our north will shift east into the atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, tropical storm ophelia will make landfall in north carolina before devolving into a post-tropical depression early Sunday morning. The low along the delmarva weakens Monday and drifts south as high pressure builds into eastern canada. The high will build southward Monday night through Wednesday, and then remains centered over new england into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure along the carolina and mid atlantic coast deepens Wednesday through Friday.
for the latest forecasts on tropical storm ophelia, refer to the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the nws new york office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure to our north will shift east into the atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, tropical storm ophelia will make landfall in north carolina before devolving into a post-tropical depression early Sunday morning. The low along the delmarva weakens Monday and drifts south as high pressure builds into eastern canada. The high will build southward Monday night through Wednesday, and then remains centered over new england into Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure along the carolina and mid atlantic coast deepens Wednesday through Friday.
for the latest forecasts on tropical storm ophelia, refer to the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the nws new york office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 230615 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 215 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure exits tonight, giving way to Tropical Storm Ophelia approaching from the south. Ophelia will weaken to a remnant area of low pressure over the weekend while tracking across our region, before departing on Monday. High pressure builds over Canada and the Northeast US through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather looks to return late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to approach the North Carolina coast. Overall expected impacts to the local area remain unchanged from earlier forecasts.
High pressure will be entrenched over the Canadian Maritimes, Gulf of Maine, and into New England tonight before moving into the Western Atlantic on Saturday. Meanwhile, Ophelia moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight and will meander over North Carolina Saturday before lifting towards Delmarva Saturday night. A 40 to 50 kt low-level jet will spin off of Ophelia and will lift through the region late tonight through Saturday. Combined with a tight pressure gradient between the departing high and Ophelia, a period of strong and potentially damaging winds will develop tonight through Saturday. East winds will generally average 20 to 30 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts, however, gusts as high as 60 mph will spread along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, and gusts as high as 50 mph will develop into the eastern shores of Maryland, most of Delaware and along and east of the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the coastal zones, and Wind Advisories remain in effect for eastern New Jersey and most of Delaware.
Also, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the eastern shores of Maryland at the same time as Delaware. Northeast winds diminish tonight as the gradient relaxes as the high departs and the low- level jet departs.
Overnight we continued to slow arrival time and amounts of rain from south to north as the initial rain shield is running into a drier air mass. This has resulted in some breaking up of the rain, however a moisture surge is working northward now across Delmarva, with 'heavier' rain rates pushing northwest across Delaware (still only a tenth or two tenths per hour). Winds are already gusting near 45 mph along Delaware's Atlantic Coast, with 30 to 40 mph gusts along the NJ shore during the predawn hours. These winds will continue to ramp up further over the next several hours, peaking this morning across most of our region. Winds will lessen somewhat this afternoon along most of the coast south of Barnegat light, especially toward Delaware, as the stronger pressure gradient lifts northward. However, more generally windy conditions with gusts still 20 to 30 mph will linger into tonight; locally higher along the Monmouth and Ocean County coasts. Meanwhile, while rain will overspread the region this morning, but rates do not appear too impressive. Some areas along the DE and NJ coastal plain, particularly toward coastal NJ, may see 1/2 inch or more in 3-6 hours, but this should be nothing that will cause any flooding issues. Aside from the winds and coastal flooding, we will have to keep an eye on thunderstorms trying to track northwestward off the ocean into the Delmarva and around Cape May to perhaps Atlantic City this afternoon into this evening. Especially if just enough instability becomes available, storms will be capable of rotation, and a waterspout or two may try to make it onshore with discrete stronger storms.
Additionally, with a more humid airmass and convective environment in place, there may be some potential for heavier rain around the Delmarva into far southern NJ this afternoon and this evening, perhaps over an inch per hour. However, that will still be far below flash flood guidance, so at most there might be some localized minor/brief flooding in poor-drainage areas. The heavy rain, however, may exacerbate coastal flooding that will occur during times of high tide. Otherwise, across much of the northern 2/3 of our area from Philly northward, rain will actually tend to become more intermittent from midday through this evening. As what's left of weakening/transitioning Tropical Storm Ophelia tracks across Virginia toward the Chesapeake tonight, additional rain will tend to overspread more of the area tonight...but still, the threat for heavy rainfall looks rather limited. That's not to say we will see quite a bit of rain over the course of the weekend...as we are still looking at 2 to 3 inch totals through Sunday in most spots.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Models still aren't in full agreement on the path or progression of the remnants of Ophelia as it tracks northward across the Chesapeake Sunday and slowly meanders north and east across New Jersey. General consensus is in said track, but with timing differences as the GEM is much more progressive than the GFS/ECMWF/NAM suite which are slower and provide continuing rain, possibly heavy at times, and breezy conditions on Sunday especially across our PA and NJ areas. If the center of the low does slide up through the Chesapeake and slowly move through eastern PA, there is some concern for additional heavy rainfall in our southeast PA counties especially. The 12z guidance, including available CAMs, are hinting at a period of easterly wind on the north side of the low resulting in upslope flow and localized higher amounts of rainfall across Chester, Berks, Lehigh, Montgomery Counties.
Will have to see how the rest of the CAMs come in within the next 24 hours to get a better idea, but the potential is there.
Otherwise, rain is forecast to gradually become more scattered through the day, though those that do see breaks from the rain will still be left with thick cloud coverage and a continuing breeze. Temperatures won't move much from overnight lows with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s west of I-95 and upper 60s to low 70s south and east of I-95.
Into the day on Monday, the low will continue to weaken and a building ridge of strong high pressure located well off to our north will try to suppress the northward extent of what's left of the low and its precipitation. A tightening gradient building between the high and the low will result in increased east/northeast gradient wind on Monday, though not as high what we saw over the weekend with gusts looking to peak in the 20-25 mph range. With the onshore flow, expect that Monday will be another dreary day and feature more thick cloud coverage and showers, along with very little of a diurnal temperature range as highs will only top out in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The long term forecast has overall little change since the previous forecast package as most of the guidance remains relatively unchanged. The remnants of Ophelia drift east and offshore Monday night. A few leftover showers may linger across the area, so have kept a slight chance to chance (20-40%) of showers through Tuesday.
A strong Canadian high out of Quebec then builds over the northeastern US through Thursday. At upper levels, a troughing pattern persists which may ultimately may become a blocky ULL pattern through the end of the week. With the strong high in place, the northern two-thirds of the forecast area should be dry through Thursday. However, a surface trough develops along/just south of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday.
Thus, have opted to keep a 20- 30% chance of showers for portions of the Delmarva and southern NJ. To end the week, the high breaks down and signals of a cut-off ULL low to our west yields an increase in the likelihood of precip to return to the area into Friday.
Overall, below-normal temperatures should continue throughout the long term period; generally in the mid-upper 60s to low 70s for highs and upper 40s to mid-upper 50s for lows.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR ceilings lower to MVFR then to IFR late. Rain will overspread most of our area by morning, from south to north, light at first, then becoming moderate and steadier with visibility restrictions. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with some gusts 20-25 knots, increasing to 15-20 with gusts 20-30 knots (strongest at KMIV/KACY). Low confidence on the exact arrival timing of the MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions along with periods of rain. Northeast winds 15-25 knots with gusts 25-45 knots (strongest at KMIV/KACY).
Moderate confidence.
Saturday night...IFR with some rain and stratus. Northeast winds 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers. Easterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with lingering showers.
Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
Monday night...Primarily VFR. Sub-VFR possible especially toward the coast. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. NE winds around 15 kt gusting up to 20-25 kt during the day, becoming around 10 kt at night. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. NE-E winds around 10-15 kt with isolated gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.
MARINE
Gale Warnings for tonight. Storm Warnings will take effect on Saturday for all but upper Delaware Bay.
As of 950 PM, increased the wave heights a bit faster this evening from south to north given observations from the buoys.
Gale force wind gusts are already occurring across the southern Atlantic coastal waters and these will spread northward overnight and increase.
Otherwise, Tropical Storm Ophelia will move into the Carolina coast tonight. NE winds will increase to 20 to 30 kt tonight with gusts up to 45 kt. Pressure gradient tightens further on Saturday, and NE winds will increase to 25 to 35 kt with 45 to 55 kt gusts from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
Winds on upper Delaware Bay will remain at Gale force.
Pressure gradient relaxes Saturday night. Gales expected in the evening, but otherwise, SCA conditions will prevail.
Seas 8 to 12 feet tonight on the ocean and to 4 to 7 feet on Delaware Bay. Seas then build to 10 to 15 feet on the ocean Saturday before subsiding to 8 to 12 feet Saturday night. On Delaware Bay, seas build to 6 to 8 feet on Saturday before subsiding to 3 to 5 feet Saturday night.
VSBY restrictions in moderate to heavy rain.
Outlook...
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. East- southeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 8-10 feet decreasing to 6-8 feet in the afternoon.
Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 5-7 feet.
Monday night...SCA conditions likely. NE winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt possible. Seas 4-7 feet.
Tuesday...SCA conditions likely. NE-E winds around 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5-7 feet.
Wednesday...SCA conditions possible. NE-E winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4-6 feet.
Rip Currents...
Through Saturday night, a HIGH risk continues for life- threatening rip currents for the Delaware and New Jersey beaches. Onshore winds increase to 30-40 mph with gusts to 50-60 mph. Breaking waves also increase to 5-9 feet with a continued medium-long period swell. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Saturday into Saturday night as breaking waves are expected to exceed 8 feet along much of the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coast.
For Sunday, a HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist as a coastal storm continues to impact the region. Breaking waves and winds are currently forecast to peak on Saturday but are expected to remain dangerous into Sunday as onshore flow persists.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended to the tidal Delaware River and for the Maryland counties of Talbot, Caroline and Queen Anne's for Saturday night.
A potentially significant coastal flood event is still forecast for Saturday's high tide along portions of Atlantic Coastal New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. The latest models suggested water levels might be very slightly lower than the last forecast, but we are still expecting moderate to locally major flooding for areas from Barnegat Bay southward to Cape May, and along the Kent and Sussex County (DE) coast. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for those areas, with advisories elsewhere. The exception is Kent County, Maryland on the far upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake, where only spotty minor flooding at most is expected, due to the strong northeast winds.
A strong onshore wind will increase reaching a peak on Saturday midday. The greatest surge and tidal departures are forecast to occur with the Saturday afternoon high tide along the coasts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware, and potentially along coastal portions of Cape May and Atlantic Counties in New Jersey.
The greatest threat for Major coastal flooding will be along the coasts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware, however some spotty major flooding is possible in Cape May and Atlantic Counties.
Modest onshore winds will persist Saturday night into Sunday as the remnant low of Ophelia moves northward. This could result in lingering minor coastal flooding with the Sunday high tides, especially along back bays that do not drain well at low tide.
That may require some extension of warnings and advisories.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-022>027.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ024>026.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-021.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ013-014-020-022-023-027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002-003.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ430.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ431- 450>455.
Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431-450>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 215 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure exits tonight, giving way to Tropical Storm Ophelia approaching from the south. Ophelia will weaken to a remnant area of low pressure over the weekend while tracking across our region, before departing on Monday. High pressure builds over Canada and the Northeast US through the middle of the week. Unsettled weather looks to return late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to approach the North Carolina coast. Overall expected impacts to the local area remain unchanged from earlier forecasts.
High pressure will be entrenched over the Canadian Maritimes, Gulf of Maine, and into New England tonight before moving into the Western Atlantic on Saturday. Meanwhile, Ophelia moves into the Mid-Atlantic tonight and will meander over North Carolina Saturday before lifting towards Delmarva Saturday night. A 40 to 50 kt low-level jet will spin off of Ophelia and will lift through the region late tonight through Saturday. Combined with a tight pressure gradient between the departing high and Ophelia, a period of strong and potentially damaging winds will develop tonight through Saturday. East winds will generally average 20 to 30 mph with 30 to 40 mph gusts, however, gusts as high as 60 mph will spread along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts, and gusts as high as 50 mph will develop into the eastern shores of Maryland, most of Delaware and along and east of the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for the coastal zones, and Wind Advisories remain in effect for eastern New Jersey and most of Delaware.
Also, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the eastern shores of Maryland at the same time as Delaware. Northeast winds diminish tonight as the gradient relaxes as the high departs and the low- level jet departs.
Overnight we continued to slow arrival time and amounts of rain from south to north as the initial rain shield is running into a drier air mass. This has resulted in some breaking up of the rain, however a moisture surge is working northward now across Delmarva, with 'heavier' rain rates pushing northwest across Delaware (still only a tenth or two tenths per hour). Winds are already gusting near 45 mph along Delaware's Atlantic Coast, with 30 to 40 mph gusts along the NJ shore during the predawn hours. These winds will continue to ramp up further over the next several hours, peaking this morning across most of our region. Winds will lessen somewhat this afternoon along most of the coast south of Barnegat light, especially toward Delaware, as the stronger pressure gradient lifts northward. However, more generally windy conditions with gusts still 20 to 30 mph will linger into tonight; locally higher along the Monmouth and Ocean County coasts. Meanwhile, while rain will overspread the region this morning, but rates do not appear too impressive. Some areas along the DE and NJ coastal plain, particularly toward coastal NJ, may see 1/2 inch or more in 3-6 hours, but this should be nothing that will cause any flooding issues. Aside from the winds and coastal flooding, we will have to keep an eye on thunderstorms trying to track northwestward off the ocean into the Delmarva and around Cape May to perhaps Atlantic City this afternoon into this evening. Especially if just enough instability becomes available, storms will be capable of rotation, and a waterspout or two may try to make it onshore with discrete stronger storms.
Additionally, with a more humid airmass and convective environment in place, there may be some potential for heavier rain around the Delmarva into far southern NJ this afternoon and this evening, perhaps over an inch per hour. However, that will still be far below flash flood guidance, so at most there might be some localized minor/brief flooding in poor-drainage areas. The heavy rain, however, may exacerbate coastal flooding that will occur during times of high tide. Otherwise, across much of the northern 2/3 of our area from Philly northward, rain will actually tend to become more intermittent from midday through this evening. As what's left of weakening/transitioning Tropical Storm Ophelia tracks across Virginia toward the Chesapeake tonight, additional rain will tend to overspread more of the area tonight...but still, the threat for heavy rainfall looks rather limited. That's not to say we will see quite a bit of rain over the course of the weekend...as we are still looking at 2 to 3 inch totals through Sunday in most spots.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Models still aren't in full agreement on the path or progression of the remnants of Ophelia as it tracks northward across the Chesapeake Sunday and slowly meanders north and east across New Jersey. General consensus is in said track, but with timing differences as the GEM is much more progressive than the GFS/ECMWF/NAM suite which are slower and provide continuing rain, possibly heavy at times, and breezy conditions on Sunday especially across our PA and NJ areas. If the center of the low does slide up through the Chesapeake and slowly move through eastern PA, there is some concern for additional heavy rainfall in our southeast PA counties especially. The 12z guidance, including available CAMs, are hinting at a period of easterly wind on the north side of the low resulting in upslope flow and localized higher amounts of rainfall across Chester, Berks, Lehigh, Montgomery Counties.
Will have to see how the rest of the CAMs come in within the next 24 hours to get a better idea, but the potential is there.
Otherwise, rain is forecast to gradually become more scattered through the day, though those that do see breaks from the rain will still be left with thick cloud coverage and a continuing breeze. Temperatures won't move much from overnight lows with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s west of I-95 and upper 60s to low 70s south and east of I-95.
Into the day on Monday, the low will continue to weaken and a building ridge of strong high pressure located well off to our north will try to suppress the northward extent of what's left of the low and its precipitation. A tightening gradient building between the high and the low will result in increased east/northeast gradient wind on Monday, though not as high what we saw over the weekend with gusts looking to peak in the 20-25 mph range. With the onshore flow, expect that Monday will be another dreary day and feature more thick cloud coverage and showers, along with very little of a diurnal temperature range as highs will only top out in the mid 60s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The long term forecast has overall little change since the previous forecast package as most of the guidance remains relatively unchanged. The remnants of Ophelia drift east and offshore Monday night. A few leftover showers may linger across the area, so have kept a slight chance to chance (20-40%) of showers through Tuesday.
A strong Canadian high out of Quebec then builds over the northeastern US through Thursday. At upper levels, a troughing pattern persists which may ultimately may become a blocky ULL pattern through the end of the week. With the strong high in place, the northern two-thirds of the forecast area should be dry through Thursday. However, a surface trough develops along/just south of the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Wednesday.
Thus, have opted to keep a 20- 30% chance of showers for portions of the Delmarva and southern NJ. To end the week, the high breaks down and signals of a cut-off ULL low to our west yields an increase in the likelihood of precip to return to the area into Friday.
Overall, below-normal temperatures should continue throughout the long term period; generally in the mid-upper 60s to low 70s for highs and upper 40s to mid-upper 50s for lows.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...VFR ceilings lower to MVFR then to IFR late. Rain will overspread most of our area by morning, from south to north, light at first, then becoming moderate and steadier with visibility restrictions. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with some gusts 20-25 knots, increasing to 15-20 with gusts 20-30 knots (strongest at KMIV/KACY). Low confidence on the exact arrival timing of the MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR conditions along with periods of rain. Northeast winds 15-25 knots with gusts 25-45 knots (strongest at KMIV/KACY).
Moderate confidence.
Saturday night...IFR with some rain and stratus. Northeast winds 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with showers. Easterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
Monday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with lingering showers.
Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
Monday night...Primarily VFR. Sub-VFR possible especially toward the coast. NE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Low confidence.
Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. NE winds around 15 kt gusting up to 20-25 kt during the day, becoming around 10 kt at night. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. NE-E winds around 10-15 kt with isolated gusts up to 20 kt. Moderate confidence.
MARINE
Gale Warnings for tonight. Storm Warnings will take effect on Saturday for all but upper Delaware Bay.
As of 950 PM, increased the wave heights a bit faster this evening from south to north given observations from the buoys.
Gale force wind gusts are already occurring across the southern Atlantic coastal waters and these will spread northward overnight and increase.
Otherwise, Tropical Storm Ophelia will move into the Carolina coast tonight. NE winds will increase to 20 to 30 kt tonight with gusts up to 45 kt. Pressure gradient tightens further on Saturday, and NE winds will increase to 25 to 35 kt with 45 to 55 kt gusts from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
Winds on upper Delaware Bay will remain at Gale force.
Pressure gradient relaxes Saturday night. Gales expected in the evening, but otherwise, SCA conditions will prevail.
Seas 8 to 12 feet tonight on the ocean and to 4 to 7 feet on Delaware Bay. Seas then build to 10 to 15 feet on the ocean Saturday before subsiding to 8 to 12 feet Saturday night. On Delaware Bay, seas build to 6 to 8 feet on Saturday before subsiding to 3 to 5 feet Saturday night.
VSBY restrictions in moderate to heavy rain.
Outlook...
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. East- southeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 8-10 feet decreasing to 6-8 feet in the afternoon.
Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Northeasterly wind 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 5-7 feet.
Monday night...SCA conditions likely. NE winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt possible. Seas 4-7 feet.
Tuesday...SCA conditions likely. NE-E winds around 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5-7 feet.
Wednesday...SCA conditions possible. NE-E winds around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4-6 feet.
Rip Currents...
Through Saturday night, a HIGH risk continues for life- threatening rip currents for the Delaware and New Jersey beaches. Onshore winds increase to 30-40 mph with gusts to 50-60 mph. Breaking waves also increase to 5-9 feet with a continued medium-long period swell. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Saturday into Saturday night as breaking waves are expected to exceed 8 feet along much of the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coast.
For Sunday, a HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist as a coastal storm continues to impact the region. Breaking waves and winds are currently forecast to peak on Saturday but are expected to remain dangerous into Sunday as onshore flow persists.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Coastal Flood Advisories have been extended to the tidal Delaware River and for the Maryland counties of Talbot, Caroline and Queen Anne's for Saturday night.
A potentially significant coastal flood event is still forecast for Saturday's high tide along portions of Atlantic Coastal New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay. The latest models suggested water levels might be very slightly lower than the last forecast, but we are still expecting moderate to locally major flooding for areas from Barnegat Bay southward to Cape May, and along the Kent and Sussex County (DE) coast. Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for those areas, with advisories elsewhere. The exception is Kent County, Maryland on the far upper eastern shore of the Chesapeake, where only spotty minor flooding at most is expected, due to the strong northeast winds.
A strong onshore wind will increase reaching a peak on Saturday midday. The greatest surge and tidal departures are forecast to occur with the Saturday afternoon high tide along the coasts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware, and potentially along coastal portions of Cape May and Atlantic Counties in New Jersey.
The greatest threat for Major coastal flooding will be along the coasts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware, however some spotty major flooding is possible in Cape May and Atlantic Counties.
Modest onshore winds will persist Saturday night into Sunday as the remnant low of Ophelia moves northward. This could result in lingering minor coastal flooding with the Sunday high tides, especially along back bays that do not drain well at low tide.
That may require some extension of warnings and advisories.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020-022>027.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ024>026.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-021.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ013-014-020-022-023-027.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002-003.
Coastal Flood Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004.
High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019- 020.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ430.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ431- 450>455.
Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431-450>455.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ | 1 mi | 81 min | ENE 9.9G | 62°F | 68°F | 30.16 | ||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 8 mi | 63 min | NE 9.9G | 62°F | 68°F | 30.18 | ||
| BDSP1 | 13 mi | 63 min | 63°F | 71°F | 30.15 | |||
| PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA | 17 mi | 63 min | 64°F | 73°F | 30.13 | |||
| MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA | 34 mi | 63 min | 64°F | 73°F | 30.11 | |||
| JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ | 44 mi | 87 min | N 11 | 64°F | 30.15 | 60°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPNE NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA,PA | 7 sm | 62 min | NE 13G20 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 63°F | 52°F | 68% | 30.17 | |
| KVAY SOUTH JERSEY RGNL,NJ | 10 sm | 62 min | NE 06G18 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 30.15 |
| KTTN TRENTON MERCER,NJ | 14 sm | 63 min | NE 12 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 52°F | 72% | 30.17 |
| KWRI MC GUIRE FLD (JOINT BASE MC GUIRE DIX LAKEHURST),NJ | 16 sm | 15 min | NE 14 | 9 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.12 |
| KDYL DOYLESTOWN,PA | 21 sm | 62 min | NE 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 61°F | 48°F | 63% | 30.18 |
| KLOM WINGS FIELD,PA | 21 sm | 21 min | NE 09G17 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 59°F | 52°F | 77% | 30.15 |
| KPHL PHILADELPHIA INTL,PA | 24 sm | 62 min | NE 15G21 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 30.13 |
Wind History from PNE
(wind in knots)Burlington
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:33 AM EDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT 5.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM EDT 0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM EDT 7.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:33 AM EDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EDT 5.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 PM EDT 0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM EDT 7.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Burlington, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.4 |
| 1 am |
| 3.5 |
| 2 am |
| 2.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 4.4 |
| 8 am |
| 5.4 |
| 9 am |
| 5.8 |
| 10 am |
| 5.7 |
| 11 am |
| 4.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 7.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 7.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.8 |
Philadelphia
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT 1.54 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:22 PM EDT -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT 2.03 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT 1.54 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:22 PM EDT -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:08 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT 2.03 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:32 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.9 |
| 1 am |
| -1.8 |
| 2 am |
| -1.5 |
| 3 am |
| -1.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| -1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.5 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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