Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Croydon, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Unsettled today and tomorrow, mainly for the northern half of the region, but severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.

2. Brief period of quiet weather to end the week and for the first half of the weekend before another system comes in on Sunday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled today and tomorrow, mainly for the northern half of the region, but severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.

A surface low is currently off the New Jersey coast and lifting toward Long Island. The surface low will slowly move northward as the day goes on, with our region on the backside of the low.
An upper level low will be positioned over New England, with our area being under cyclonic flow aloft. As a shortwave rotates through and with some wrap-around moisture in place, some showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon, mainly north of I-78. Not much instability or shear to work with, and guidance has really cut back in coverage of showers/thunderstorms compared to a day ago, so not much is expected in terms of impacts. In fact, the Flood Watch originally posted through most of the day was cancelled early.

A few showers could linger into the night, with another round potentially developing on Thursday, again mainly for the Poconos and North Jersey. This should be the final round before the upper level low and associated surface low move out.

Areas from Philadelphia on south should actually stay dry but cannot rule out an isolated shower over SE PA or South Jersey today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief period of quiet weather to end the week and for the first half of the weekend before another system comes in on Sunday.

High pressure begins to take over on Thursday Night and will remain in place through Saturday Night. Seasonable temperatures are expected and it should be an overall nice stretch of days.

A frontal system will move in on Sunday and Monday, as we transition back to an unsettled pattern to start August. Still too early to discern what specific impacts will be but this period bears some watching. Details will be ironed out in subsequent forecast cycles.

AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Some times of MVFR ceilings this morning, otherwise VFR.
A shower or thunderstorm this afternoon mainly north of KPHL.
West-northwest to northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tonight....VFR. Northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...Primarily VFR, though cannot rule out some showers and isolated thunderstorms around KABE/KTTN.

Thursday Night through Saturday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Sunday...Primarily VFR though afternoon showers and thunderstorms could result in some restrictions.

MARINE
For today and tonight, sub-SCA conditions are expected with northwest winds around 10 to 20 kt and seas of 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...No marine headlines expected.

Rip Currents...

For today and Thursday, winds turn more offshore around 10 to 15 MPH.
Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less.
While the Full Moon is today, decreasing wave heights, more offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds should limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a LOW risk for rip currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.