Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:30 AM   Moonset 1:45 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1159 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1159 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will be well northeast of the waters with a stalled front well west of the waters through today. Low pressure develops along the front and another low approaches from the south tonight into Wednesday. The low to the south of the area gets close Wednesday night into Thursday before moving farther offshore Thursday night. Weak high pressure on Friday will be followed by a frontal system that impacts the waters through the weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 141339 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 939 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains positioned offshore today. Unsettled weather returns tonight and persists through Thursday as a slow moving low pressure system passes by to our south. Weak high pressure returns on Friday, before another period of unsettled weather impacts the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 930 am, temperatures across the region were in the low to mid 60s. High clouds draped across the southern half of the region continue to progress northward.

Increasing clouds can be expected to continue today with about average afternoon highs, mainly in the mid 70s. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon with the best chances closest to sunset and mainly west of the I95 corridor.

The slower progression of the showers this afternoon along with the chance of thunder across our western zones where CAPE should be the greatest remains unchanged.

Winds today will be from the south to southwest in the 5 to 15 mph range.

For tonight, showers become more widespread. I kept thunder in the forecast into this evening, but took it out overnight. Clouds thicken and lower, especially the second half of the night. Lows will be in the 50s and winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Rainfall amounts across the region by Wednesday daybreak should range from a few hundredths north to two to three tenths down over the Delmarva.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
An upper trough near the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday will work its way east over the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and offshore by Thursday night. At the surface, a weakening low over Tennessee will translate its energy into a developing coastal low along the Carolinas on Wednesday. This new low is then forecast to meander off the East Coast through much of Thursday. However, the positioning of where this low will track and eventually meander varies greatly between broader-scale and hi-res model guidance. GFS/ECMWF guidance keeps the low on a more coastal approach, whereas the NAM/HRRR and other CAMs keep the low further south and east.

Regardless of the positioning of the low, our entire area is forecast to remain on the northern side of the system. As a result, onshore flow wrapping the low will result in frequent chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday. Due to the southeast trend in short- range guidance, have backed off on PoPs northwest of the I-95 corridor compared to previous forecast. The higher PoPs are now found across the Delmarva and New Jersey which are in closer proximity to the low. Have also removed the mention of thunder as all instability will be found either well south of the area or offshore.

The meandering low begins to pull away late Thursday allowing rain chances to decrease into Thursday night as dry air begins to filter in. However, shower chances will likely remain along the coast as flow becomes northeast off the ocean. So while most areas dry out Thursday night, there likely will still be some spotty shower activity along the coast.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will mostly be in the 60s with some 70s possible northwest of I-95 on Thursday. Low temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The long term period starts off quiet on Friday as upper ridge builds overhead and temporary surface high moves by. This will result in Friday being mostly dry. However, what happens after Friday is quite uncertain as there is high variability in the timing of the weekend system. At this point in time, the general consensus for the some of the ensembles is for showers to return as early as Friday night. However, this is completely different from the majority of the GFS ensembles which delay the onset of precip until late Saturday. Given the vast uncertainty and differences between ensembles, the forecast is strictly basis the National Blend of Models (NBM) for Friday night and beyond. This yields a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms during the weekend period.
Eventually, a cold front will sweep across the area and push any shower activity offshore. This doesn't look like it will happen until at least Monday, so while most of the weekend does look to be unsettled, it may not entirely be raining the entire time. Temps are expected to be below average for Friday and Saturday, returning closer to average by Sunday, and possibly above average into early next week depending on the timing of features.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR through most of the day. Widespread MVFR CIGs developing between 21Z and 24z with the best chances west of the I95 corridor. Isolated to scattered rain showers may result in brief sub-VFR VSBYs as well. S winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...MVFR conditions likely with some IFR mixed in. Light SW winds. Showers becoming more numerous. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with periods of light rain.

Thursday night through Friday...Anticipate VFR. No significant weather expected.

Friday night through Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions likely return.
Occasional showers likely especially on Saturday.

MARINE
Today...Sub-SCA conditions. South winds 10 to 20 kts. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kts. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Outlook...

Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the ocean waters offshore Great Egg Inlet to Fenwick Island beginning at 10 AM and beginning at 1 PM Wednesday for the ocean waters offshore Manasquan Inlet to Great Egg Inlet. The northern ocean zone and Delaware Bay are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

Wednesday night through Friday night...SCA conditions likely continue all ocean waters due to elevated seas around 5-7 feet.
Winds may briefly gust around 25 kt on Wednesday and Thursday as well. Light rain expected Wednesday through Thursday night, before fair weather on Friday.

Saturday...No marine headlines expected.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451-452.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ453>455.

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Burlington
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Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:42 AM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:58 AM EDT     7.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:28 PM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:41 PM EDT     6.50 feet High Tide
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Burlington, New Jersey, Tide feet

Philadelphia
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Tue -- 01:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:53 AM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:59 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
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Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current, knots

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