Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brielle, NJ

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast on track. Only minor changes made to the forecast.

Cold Canadian high pressure currently over the Northern Plains will move southeast over the Midwest tonight before settling near Tennessee on Wednesday. Also, a shortwave aloft is passing through the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. This has resulted in a scattered to broken cloud deck moving through. Thinking it will be too dry in the low-levels for any snow flurries making it to the surface though. Otherwise, skies will begin to clear around midnight from north to south. It should remain quite breezy overnight with wind gusts up to 30 mph as forecast soundings only indicate a weak inversion developing. Lows will be in the teens to low 20s. When factoring in the wind, wind chill values are expected to be in the single digits (sub-zero in the Poconos). Will fall short of cold weather hazards, however.

Wednesday will essentially be a carbon copy of today as no real change to the weather pattern is to occur. Temperatures may in fact be a degree or two higher than today, with highs topping out in the upper 20s to mid 30s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain on the breezy side as the modest pressure gradient persists with winds gusting up to 30 mph for Wednesday afternoon. Again, wind chill values should mainly be in the teens and 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Main feature of the short term, other than cold, is a weak low pressure passing southeastward across the region Thursday evening. Before then, mainly dry and cold Wednesday night into early Thursday as surface high pressure briefly builds in before passing southeastward into the Atlantic. Lows mostly in the teens.

We'll start with some sun Thursday morning, but clouds likely fill in fairly well by early afternoon. Most guidance has at least a bit of light precip overspreading the area with warm advection and divergence aloft as the surface low and its upper lvel trough moves into the region. Thus, have chance pops mainly northwest of I-95 late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, slight chance elsewhere, but little if any measurable snow expected. Where it does occur, totals should be less than a half inch. Highs mid 30s Delmarva and south Jersey, near freezing I-95, near 30 I-78 corridor, 20s Poconos and NW NJ, with lows near 20 for most, teens Poconos and NW NJ.

The passage of the system will begin to bring warmer air into the region as a Pacific high pressure builds eastward into the region, accompanied by partly to mostly sunny skies. This will probably make Friday the nicest day of the current 7-day forecast. Highs near 40 for most.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure heads off the coast Friday night into Saturday as the next storm moves into the region. Southerly flow and increasing clouds will keep lows a bit milder, with most places staying in the mid 20s to near 30.

Clouds will predominate Saturday as the aforementioned system moves into the region. The morning still looks dry, but rain chances increase during the afternoon and continue into Saturday night. That said, total amounts look quite meager, so not a washout or heavy rain risk at all. Temps will be a little milder, with highs mostly in the low-mid 40s, with lows dropping to near freezing or just below Saturday night after rain pulls out.

A brief break takes hold Sunday as an arctic front moves through. Then a potent upper level shortwave looks to possibly develop a new low just off the coast late Sunday into early Monday, with significant uncertainty in timing. With the system remaining off shore and developing pretty late, precip amounts look light, but by this point, it should be cold enough for most if not all precip to be snow, so a widespread if light accumulating snow remains possible Sunday night. This likely pulls out pretty quickly Monday, with the well-advertised very cold air mass building southeastward into the region thereafter.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. BKN ceilings early, becoming mostly clear after midnight. West-northwest winds around 10-15 kt. Gusts may occasional gust up to 20 kt. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR with FEW/SCT afternoon clouds. West-northwest winds around 10-20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt. High confidence.

Wednesday Night...VFR. Winds decreasing around 5-10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday night...mostly VFR. A few snow showers Thursday afternoon/evening may briefly reduce conditions below VFR, most likely affecting KRDG and KABE.

Saturday and Saturday night...Sub-VFR possible with a bit of rain or some showers, lowering cigs and vsby.

Sunday...mostly VFR, depending on timing of the exit of the rain Saturday night and the arrival of potential light snow Sunday night.

MARINE
A Gale Warning is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters and the Delaware Bay through tonight. A Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters and the Delaware Bay through early Wednesday afternoon.

For tonight, northwest winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt and seas of 4-6 feet. On Wednesday, northwest winds will diminish a bit through the afternoon, but gusts up to 30 kt remain possible.

Due to the combination of cold air/water temperatures, gusty winds, and enhanced seas, moderate freezing spray accretion is likely beginning tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...conditions subsiding slowly but mostly still at SCA levels with gusts up to 30 kts and seas up to 6 feet, mainly early. Freezing spray possible.

Thursday...generally below SCA levels with wind gusts mostly below 25 kts and seas mostly below 4 feet.

Thursday night...SCA conditions return with gusts up to 30 kts, but seas still mostly below 4 feet. A few snow showers possible.

Friday through Friday night...sub-SCA overall with gusts mostly below 25 kts and seas below 4 feet.

Saturday...SCA conditions redevelop with gusts up to 25 kts and seas building to 5 feet. Rain also possible.

Saturday night...conditions dropping back below SCA with gusts mostly below 25 kts and seas subsiding to 4 feet or less. Rain also possible.

Sunday...SCA ramps back up with gusts to 25 kts and seas building back to 5 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431-453>455.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430- 431-450>455.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ450>452.