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FXUS61 KPBZ 102344 AAB AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 644 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain south and east of Pittsburgh will change to snow this evening. Additional scattered snow showers are expected later tonight as colder air overspreads the region. Heavier snow is expected over the ridges and I-80 corridor where accumulations are likely.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
No big changes for the evening update. PoPs were refreshed with the latest blended guidance. Made some adjustments to change over times but nothing dramatic. Rest of the forecast is in good shape.

KEY MESSAGE:

-Rain will change over to snow after 8pm tonight.
-Snowfall totals could be as high as 7 inches in eastern Tucker county; 2-4 inches is expected in the western Tucker /eastern Preston county.
-Snow will likely be wet and heavy between 8pm and 2am Monday and could be difficult to shovel in the ridges.
-Snow bands may develop between 9am to 2pm near I-80 Monday.

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A passing shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will continue to cool temperatures aloft and change rain into a brief wintry mix followed by snow tonight. With warm sfc temperatures this evening, it may take some time for snow to accumulate. Snow will likely start as wet before becoming fluffy/dry early Monday morning and could impact shoveling conditions along the ridges as snow liquid ratios start near 4:1 and ramp up to 12:1 between 8pm tonight to 2am Monday. Snowfall totals have not changed significant from the midnight forecast package. Probability of 4 inches or higher is above 80% in eastern Tucker county, probability of 6 inches or higher is near 55%. A Winter Storm Warming will continue due to high snowfall amounts and snow loading.

Probability of 2-3 inches is 70-85% in eastern Westmoreland/eastern Fayette county. However, the confidence is low that amounts will exceed Advisory criteria. Winter weather products will not be expanded for this afternoon for these two forecast zones.

Elsewhere, less than an inch is expected Monday morning through Monday afternoon with lake enhanced snow bands under northwest flow. Areas near I-80 may observe a training snow band between 9am to 2pm if strong moisture convergence occurs over Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Probabilities are low but are lighting up near Venango County over the last 12 hours for this scenario.
Hazardous driving conditions could impact the tail end of the morning commute for localized areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
Ridging over the Central Appalachians will likely clear the sky Monday night. With elevated wind gusts under cold advection, the probability of wind chill temperatures fall 20F or below are high (above 60%) after 10pm Monday night. Probability of wind chill values between 10F to 5F is high /above 90%/ in eastern Tucker County with strong wind gusts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Early morning temperatures Tuesday will be near normal. However, wind chill values will be in the teens in the lowlands, single digits in the WV ridges as boundary layer winds remain elevated with a new shortwave ejecting into the Great Lakes.

Dry and quiet weather is expected Tuesday through Friday under high pressure. Long term models suggest a coastal low developing in the Gulf of Mexico between Dec. 17th to Dec 19th. However, the ECMWF and GEFS differ on potential impacts along the East Coast. GEFS has a Nor'eastern developing over the Northeast/New England Monday. However, ECMWF keeps the low pressure system in the Southeast for numerous days as a blocking pattern develops.
Therefore, confidence is low on precip chances and impacts over the weekend and into early next week until models shake out the large scale synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Expect the ongoing MVFR restrictions (locally IFR, particularly over the higher terrain to the east) to continue overnight.

West to northwest winds strengthen late tonight and remain gusty throughout the day Monday, with winds sustained around 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots (as high as 30-35 knots along the ridges). Snow showers taper off Monday morning, first over southwest PA and the northern WV panhandle, then later north of I-80 and along the ridges. Ceilings begin to lift and clear out to VFR levels after the current TAF period.

OUTLOOK
A return to VFR is expected late Monday and should persist through much of next week with building high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ512-513.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for WVZ514.

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