West Alexander, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Alexander, PA

April 23, 2024 2:27 PM EDT (18:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM
Moonrise 7:10 PM   Moonset 5:14 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Alexander, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231804 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 204 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry, warm weather is expected today with marginal fire weather concerns. A crossing cold front will increase precipitation chances tonight and early tomorrow. A warming trend is expected to close out the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and seasonably warm weather with wind gusts up to 30mph will result in marginal fire weather concerns today.
- Showers arrive overnight with a passing cold front.
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Shortwave ridging will continue its eastward progression as a shortwave trough moves in through the near term. Accelerated flow is expected in an increasing gradient. Stout mixing up to ~800mb is expected to allow wind gusts up to 20 to 30mph during the day today.

As of 10am, the mixing is already over-performing most guidance, hence, opted to increase the temperatures into the day today towards the 90th percentile and lower the dewpoint towards the 10th percentile as the atmospheric profile slowly taps into a dry cap.

Low relative humidities and heightened wind will come together to create marginal fire weather concerns today across the forecast area. A fire weather SPS is in effect in West Virginia and Pennsylvania through 8pm to highlight the threat.

Shower chances increase in pre-frontal convergence and along a passing cold front this evening and overnight tonight. Precipitation totals have trended down slightly with the latest update. There is only about a 30% chance of exceeding a quarter of an inch along I-80,with roughly a 15% to 25% chance elsewhere. This means Pittsburgh will likely not exceed its all-time April rainfall with this event.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Few showers possible Wednesday, followed by a frost/freeze Wednesday night.
- Dry and warmer Thursday.
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Post-frontal cold advection will force saturation in a low deck on Wednesday. This, combined with the cold advection itself, will keep daytime high temperatures a few degrees below average on Wednesday. Quasi-unstable, low-level thermodynamic profiles in saturation may lend to a few shallow daytime showers, enhanced by a couple passing 500mb shortwaves.

Overnight, drier air will advect in from the north, reducing cloud cover along with it. Clearing combined with calm surface conditions and anomalously cool low levels will lead to moderate confidence in a freeze north and west of Pittsburgh (greater than 50%), with a frost possible elsewhere. A Freeze Watch has been issued accordingly.

The return of surface high pressure on Thursday will lend to another dry day with mostly clear skies. Surface heating will allow a slight rebound in high temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Much warmer and unsettled through the weekend.
- Forecast uncertainty increases considerably next Tuesday.
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Model ensembles indicate ridging, warm advection, and rising 1000-500mb heights will result in dry and warmer weather on Friday. The ridge will shift east of the area Friday night and Saturday, as a shortwave trough embedded in southwest flow aloft crosses the region. Showers will return with the approach and passage of the wave.

The ridge is then progged to become reestablished across much of the Eastern CONUS through Sunday night. Dry weather is expected most of the period from Saturday night through Sunday night, through diurnal instability could be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Rising 1000-500mb heights, and 850mb temperatures around 14 deg C, should result in highs as much as the upper 70s on Saturday (most likely for eastern Ohio), and the mid 80s on Sunday (most likely for the lowlands).

Multi-model clusters are incredibly consistent with the 500mb pattern through Monday, but uncertainty increases considerably thereafter. Some clusters have the maintain the eastern ridge which would allow for continued warm weather; other clusters develop quasi-zonal flow or eastern troughing, which would tend cooler and more unsettled.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through this afternoon and evening. Winds gusting from the westsouthwest up to 25 knots will continue before decoupling just after 00Z.
Expect cigs to begin lowering with the approach of a cold front.
Showers are expected to impact ZZV by 03Z and then PIT by 06Z.
MVFR at terminals will worsen to IFR and below through the remainder of the overnight and into Wednesday morning. Frontal passage is expected by 12Z but IFR and below conditions may remain through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook
Widespread MVFR to potential IFR (DUJ/FKL) conditions are expected to increase Wednesday with the passage of a cold front.

Cig improvements will likely develop late evening Wednesday with incoming dry, cold air in the wake of the front.

The probability of showers and isolated thunderstorms increases Saturday.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-077.
OH...Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for OHZ039>041-048-057.
WV...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KAFJ WASHINGTON COUNTY,PA 10 sm31 minno data--
KHLG WHEELING OHIO CO,WV 11 sm34 minWSW 11G2010 smMostly Cloudy64°F32°F30%29.96
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