Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Alexander, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 935 PM, the forecast remains on track across the area with wind tapering off, and mostly clear skies allowing for radiational cooling and a quick drop off in temperatures.

Though some shortwave energy may propagate through, the region will experience mainly zonal flow aloft during the duration of the near term. Weak high pressure looks to control the region at the surface level during the term. A weak/diffuse warm front will lift during the late overnight hours.

Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with light and variable winds. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. For Thursday, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s for most interior locations. Higher elevations and areas near the coast should expect highs in the 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will be east of the area Thursday night and early Friday. We'll continue with the fair weather those periods, but moisture and warmth will be increasing over the area Friday as the return flow behind the high sets up over our area. Depending on how the winds set-up there could be some low clouds close to the shore Fri morning.

The next disturbance arrives later Friday and will affect the weather into Saturday evening. An upper trough across the Great Lakes promotes surface cyclogenesis across IN/OH area. This low then deepens and moves across Lake Erie/Ontario and across southern Canada. An associated cold front crosses the area later Sat. We'll bring chance pops (30-50) across most areas Fri night and likely pops (70-80) for Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible too but severe weather is not. Lows will remain mild Fri night/Sat morning with mostly 60s. Highs will be a little above normal Sat with low/mid 70s S/E and mid 60s N/W.

The previous shift noted that the primary impact over the weekend will be rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall on Saturday. Tall skinny CAPE profiles with warm cloud depths approaching 10,000ft suggest fairly efficient rainfall. NBM probs suggest generally a 20% chance of greater than 1" for most of the forecast area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front completes its transit across NJ and Delmarva Saturday night with decreasing pops after Sat evening. As high pressure arrives from the northwest Sunday, the weather will be nice for the last half of the weekend and into next week. After that, low pressure will move north of the area bringing milder air and a chance for showers/tstms later Tue and into Wed.

Temperatures will start out the period close to normal, but then the milder air gets advected into the region with warmer temps each day into next week. By the middle of he week, temps will be much above normal with low/mid 80s in many areas and low 70s near the shore.
Normal high temperatures for late April are upper 60s to low 70s for Philadelphia area and low 60s for the far NW areas. Lows generally are in the 40s, but closer to 50 near the highly urban areas.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Southwest wind around 5 kt decreasing to light and variable by 03Z. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR. Light and variable wind becoming south-southwest and increasing to 5-10 kt during the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night/Friday... VFR. Increasing clouds Friday.

Friday night... Lowering CIGS with showers and sub-VFR possible.

Sat/Sat evening.. MVFR or IFR probable with showers and a chance of tstms.

Sunday/Monday... VFR expected.

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions expected through Thursday. Wind less than 15 kt. Seas 2 feet or less.

Outlook...

Thursday night/Friday ... sub-SCA expected. Fair.

Friday night thru Sat
evening
SCA possible across the ocean with showers and a few tstms.

Sat night thru Monday... sub-SCA. Fair.

FIRE WEATHER
Relative humidity increases through the night with diminishing wind and decreasing temperatures. Thursday will generally feature RH near 25-35% and fairly light winds.

Relative humidity recovers more this weekend. Given lighter winds, there are no fire weather concerns expected regarding rapid fire spread.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ020- 022>027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.