Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alexandria, OH
February 8, 2025 2:09 PM EST (19:09 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 6:00 PM Moonrise 1:46 PM Moonset 5:01 AM |
LEZ144 The Islands To Vermilion Oh-vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 336 Am Est Sat Feb 8 2025
Today - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow early this afternoon. Snow, a slight chance of freezing rain and sleet late. Waves in ice free areas 2 feet or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Snow, freezing rain and sleet likely in the evening, then a chance of snow overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees, and off erie 32 degrees.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees, and off erie 32 degrees.
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Area Discussion for Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 081742 AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1242 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring rain to the region today, with a period of freezing rain possible along and north of I-70. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region for Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/
Based on latest guidance, decided to add Union and Delaware Counties in Ohio to the Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain potential this afternoon through this evening. Although there will be a sharp cutoff to the freezing rain/rain delineation, northern parts of both of these counties may see a more prolonged period of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion (especially on elevated surfaces, including bridges/overpasses) of up to a tenth of an inch.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The initial wave of more significant precipitation is passing just off to our south early this morning. Farther north across our area, weak isentropic lift is resulting in spotty weak returns on radar, but not sure how much of this is even reaching the ground. Temperatures along and north of about a Connersville through Wilmington to Chillicothe line are at or below freezing, so some spotty very light freezing rain will be possible this morning across about the northern half of our area.
A more significant wave of pcpn will overspread our area from the west late this morning and into the afternoon as a surface low pressure system rides east along the Ohio River. Temperatures will slowly rise through the day as surface winds become more southeasterly ahead of the approaching low. This should allow for temperatures to push up above freezing across much of our north by the time the better pcpn moves in. The exception may be across our far northern counties, where the surface flow will remain more easterly. In these area, temperatures may struggle to get much above freezing through the day. As a result, some more significant ice accumulations will be possible across Mercer, Auglaize and Hardin Counties and perhaps northern portions of Shelby and Logan Counties, so will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas. To the south of this, expect a briefer period of freezing rain at onset, before transitioning over to all rain, and will cover those areas with an SPS.
We will end up with a decent temperature gradient across our area today. Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s in the northwest to close to 60 degrees in our far southeast.
SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As the surface low moves off to the east, it will drag a cold front southeast across our area tonight with pcpn tapering off behind the front. Surface high pressure and a drier, seasonable airmass will settle into the area for Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 30s north to lower 40s south.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
H5 zonal flow stretching across the eastern CONUS will be in place to start the forecast period. Surface high pressure across the Upper Midwest region will result in dry and seasonable weather through Monday.
Come Monday night, a weak surface wave will traverse the southern CONUS. The precipitation shield from this broad system will likely result in some wintry precip for our southern counties. Trends in deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest that precip chances are trending notably lower for locations near and especially north of the I-70 corridor Mon night/Tuesday. In fact, the northern edge of this precip shield may only reach our far southern OH counties.
Thermal profiles would suggest that most (if not all) of the precip will fall as snow with this particular system. QPF footprint increases as you head southward, suggesting that the highest snow accumulations will be in our northern KY counties. 1-2" of snow is certainly possible late Mon night into Tuesday morning for these counties, with lower amounts as you trend northwards. Still some uncertainty in the northern extent of this snowfall.
Once this first wave moves out, a more dynamic system is expected to impact the Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. A stronger low pressure system will develop as a deep, longwave H5 trough tracks through the Central Plains and Midwest regions. With this particular system, model trends have shifted the center of the surface low further NW compared to previous runs. This is leading to warmer air intruding in the lower levels, producing more rainfall as the primary p-type. Additionally, snow appears to be more limited with this system as any wintry precip would likely be sleet/freezing rain, which is favored along/NW of I-71. However, note that we are still several days away from the onset of this system, so changes in p-type/impacts are certainly possible. Once this system clears out, frigid lows are expected Thursday night, but temperatures rebound to near normal on Friday.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHRA continues to expand in coverage through the region and will be most widespread between 20z-01z before tapering off from W to E thereafter. With the moistening of the profile, CIGs will gradually trend to IFR area-wide, with MVFR/IFR VSBYs expected as well (especially from 20z-01z), before VSBYs return to VFR by 02z through the remainder of the period.
IFR CIGs may briefly go LIFR this evening before gradually returning to MVFR area-wide between 06z-09z. Coverage should become more BKN in nature after 12z, with conditions returning to VFR once again by 18z Sunday.
Some brief SW LLWS on the order of 40-45kts is expected between about 21z-01z for srn sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Sfc winds will go light/VRB during this window as the sfc low tracks through the area. WNW winds of 12-15kts, with gusts to 25kts, are expected in the post-frontal environment between 01z-08z or so, slowly subsiding toward daybreak. NW winds at 10kts or less will evolve during the daytime Sunday.
OUTLOOK.. MVFR CIGs are expected into Sunday. MVFR to IFR conditions with snow are possible Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly for southern parts of the area.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for OHZ026- 034-035-043>046.
KY...None.
IN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1242 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring rain to the region today, with a period of freezing rain possible along and north of I-70. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region for Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/
Based on latest guidance, decided to add Union and Delaware Counties in Ohio to the Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain potential this afternoon through this evening. Although there will be a sharp cutoff to the freezing rain/rain delineation, northern parts of both of these counties may see a more prolonged period of freezing rain, leading to ice accretion (especially on elevated surfaces, including bridges/overpasses) of up to a tenth of an inch.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The initial wave of more significant precipitation is passing just off to our south early this morning. Farther north across our area, weak isentropic lift is resulting in spotty weak returns on radar, but not sure how much of this is even reaching the ground. Temperatures along and north of about a Connersville through Wilmington to Chillicothe line are at or below freezing, so some spotty very light freezing rain will be possible this morning across about the northern half of our area.
A more significant wave of pcpn will overspread our area from the west late this morning and into the afternoon as a surface low pressure system rides east along the Ohio River. Temperatures will slowly rise through the day as surface winds become more southeasterly ahead of the approaching low. This should allow for temperatures to push up above freezing across much of our north by the time the better pcpn moves in. The exception may be across our far northern counties, where the surface flow will remain more easterly. In these area, temperatures may struggle to get much above freezing through the day. As a result, some more significant ice accumulations will be possible across Mercer, Auglaize and Hardin Counties and perhaps northern portions of Shelby and Logan Counties, so will go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas. To the south of this, expect a briefer period of freezing rain at onset, before transitioning over to all rain, and will cover those areas with an SPS.
We will end up with a decent temperature gradient across our area today. Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s in the northwest to close to 60 degrees in our far southeast.
SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As the surface low moves off to the east, it will drag a cold front southeast across our area tonight with pcpn tapering off behind the front. Surface high pressure and a drier, seasonable airmass will settle into the area for Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s with highs on Sunday ranging from the mid 30s north to lower 40s south.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
H5 zonal flow stretching across the eastern CONUS will be in place to start the forecast period. Surface high pressure across the Upper Midwest region will result in dry and seasonable weather through Monday.
Come Monday night, a weak surface wave will traverse the southern CONUS. The precipitation shield from this broad system will likely result in some wintry precip for our southern counties. Trends in deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest that precip chances are trending notably lower for locations near and especially north of the I-70 corridor Mon night/Tuesday. In fact, the northern edge of this precip shield may only reach our far southern OH counties.
Thermal profiles would suggest that most (if not all) of the precip will fall as snow with this particular system. QPF footprint increases as you head southward, suggesting that the highest snow accumulations will be in our northern KY counties. 1-2" of snow is certainly possible late Mon night into Tuesday morning for these counties, with lower amounts as you trend northwards. Still some uncertainty in the northern extent of this snowfall.
Once this first wave moves out, a more dynamic system is expected to impact the Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. A stronger low pressure system will develop as a deep, longwave H5 trough tracks through the Central Plains and Midwest regions. With this particular system, model trends have shifted the center of the surface low further NW compared to previous runs. This is leading to warmer air intruding in the lower levels, producing more rainfall as the primary p-type. Additionally, snow appears to be more limited with this system as any wintry precip would likely be sleet/freezing rain, which is favored along/NW of I-71. However, note that we are still several days away from the onset of this system, so changes in p-type/impacts are certainly possible. Once this system clears out, frigid lows are expected Thursday night, but temperatures rebound to near normal on Friday.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHRA continues to expand in coverage through the region and will be most widespread between 20z-01z before tapering off from W to E thereafter. With the moistening of the profile, CIGs will gradually trend to IFR area-wide, with MVFR/IFR VSBYs expected as well (especially from 20z-01z), before VSBYs return to VFR by 02z through the remainder of the period.
IFR CIGs may briefly go LIFR this evening before gradually returning to MVFR area-wide between 06z-09z. Coverage should become more BKN in nature after 12z, with conditions returning to VFR once again by 18z Sunday.
Some brief SW LLWS on the order of 40-45kts is expected between about 21z-01z for srn sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Sfc winds will go light/VRB during this window as the sfc low tracks through the area. WNW winds of 12-15kts, with gusts to 25kts, are expected in the post-frontal environment between 01z-08z or so, slowly subsiding toward daybreak. NW winds at 10kts or less will evolve during the daytime Sunday.
OUTLOOK.. MVFR CIGs are expected into Sunday. MVFR to IFR conditions with snow are possible Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly for southern parts of the area.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for OHZ026- 034-035-043>046.
KY...None.
IN...None.
Wind History for Marblehead, OH
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KVTA NEWARKHEATH,OH | 12 sm | 15 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 29.84 |
KCMH JOHN GLENN COLUMBUS INTL,OH | 14 sm | 18 min | E 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 34°F | 27°F | 75% | 29.83 |
KOSU OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY,OH | 22 sm | 16 min | ESE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 27°F | 75% | 29.80 | |
KLHQ FAIRFIELD COUNTY,OH | 24 sm | 16 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 39°F | 25°F | 56% | 29.84 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KVTA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVTA
Wind History Graph: VTA
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Wilmington, OH,

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