Urbana, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbana, IL

June 16, 2024 8:40 PM CDT (01:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM
Moonrise 3:18 PM   Moonset 1:53 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Urbana, IL
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Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 731 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024


- Seasonably hot and humid weather is on tap this week. Heat index values will peak at or above 100 degrees both this afternoon and Monday afternoon before readings settle back into the middle to upper 90s for the remainder of the week.

Issued at 731 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Well-defined MCV remains clearly visible on radar this evening, currently spinning across the northern portion of the Chicago metro. The trailing outflow from the earlier convection lingers from about Galesburg to Pontiac, with just some thicker clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures along it. Remaining clouds are expected to thin out over the course of the evening, with mostly clear skies by midnight. A warm night is on tap, with low temperatures generally in the mid 70s across the forecast area.


(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

19z/2pm analysis shows a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV)
tracking northeastward across eastern Iowa. The airmass along/south of this feature is moderately unstable and weakly sheared...with MLCAPEs of 2000-2500J/kg but 0-6km bulk shear of only around 20kt. Given the instability/forcing present, a cluster of thunderstorms has accompanied the vortex across southeast Iowa into northwest Illinois. The primary severe weather risk with the storms will be damaging wind gusts...and these will mostly remain N/NW of the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Will need to keep an eye on the S/SW flank of the MCV to monitor for additional development. Regional satellite/radar mosaic has thus far shown little to no development, but the potential exists for storms along the outflow boundary on the southern edge of the strongest forcing. Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 8pm for Knox, Stark, and Marshall counties to address this risk. Any storms that skirt the N/NW CWA will exit into northern Illinois after 01z/8pm...with warm/dry conditions anticipated everywhere through the night.

As deep-layer moist advection from the western Gulf of Mexico becomes better established, moisture profiles will become more favorable for rainfall on Monday. However, no synoptic or mesoscale boundaries will be present in order to serve as a focus for development. As a result, am expecting another hot and humid day with low chance PoPs (20-30%) for afternoon thunderstorms.
High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today in the middle 90s, which will create heat index values in the 100-105 degree range. As was the case today, the heat will once again be somewhat mitigated by a southwest breeze gusting over 20mph.


(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Much of the extended will feature hot and humid conditions with highs in the lower to middle 90s and heat index readings in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. No appreciable frontal boundaries will come into the region until next weekend when synoptic models show a cold front settling southward into Illinois. As a result, PoPs will remain at a minimum until next Saturday night into Sunday.


(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions to prevail the next 24 hours.

Gusty south/southwest winds will taper off with sunset, but will pick up again Monday morning. While the period will largely be dry, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop toward 18Z or so. With probabilities of occurrence around 20%, pinning down specific locations at this range would be futile, so no mention will be included in this TAF set.



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