Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbana, IL
March 28, 2024 7:10 AM CDT (12:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:40 AM Sunset 7:14 PM Moonrise 10:56 PM Moonset 8:04 AM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 281056 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 556 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of storms are forecast Friday evening through early next week. Severe potential will be low (up to around 5%) Friday night, but appears to increase Sunday into Monday.
- There is a 30-50% chance for freezing temperatures north of I-72 Tuesday night, with slightly lower chances Wednesday night.
Precautions might be needed to protect tender vegetation once again.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Water vapor satellite shows an upper trough, whose axis roughly bisects IL at 145am, slowly migrating eastward across the Upper Great Lakes. Deterministic and ensemble guidance agrees that as this shifts eastward today and ridging expands into the Midwest behind it, 850mb temps will rise to 2-3 degC by late afternoon when, despite some pesky mid-level clouds, sfc temps should have no trouble warming well into the 50s (perhaps 60 SW of a Macomb to Robinson line). The CAMs suggest a piece of mid level energy will then pass across the northern portion of the ILX CWA, producing some virga and perhaps even an isolated sprinkle north of I-72 this evening, and fostering an increase in low level moisture with HRRR mean suggesting mid to upper 30s dewpoints area-wide by late evening. This will thus mark the first of several nights where sub freezing temps are not expected, and in fact forecast lows in the mid 30s to low 40s could even be too low given (1) the aforementioned evening cloud cover, and (2) increasing mid-high clouds ahead of the next shortwave closer to sunrise tomorrow.
South-southwest winds will strengthen tomorrow for increasing warm advection which will add about 10 degrees, perhaps a little more, to our peak readings today. NBM even suggests a 50-60% chance highs reach or surpass 70 degF south of I-74, which seems plausible if we mix a little deeper than currently forecast. Precip chances increase Friday evening, when steepening mid level lapse rates (NAM is as aggressive as -8 to -8.5 C/km) associated with an incoming EML foster 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE across our west/northwest where the ECMWF suggests thunderstorms develop between 7-11pm. These storms will translate east-southeast across a portion of central IL overnight and into Saturday morning, with some redevelopment across areas mainly east of I-57 Saturday afternoon with the cold front. Given the steep lapse rates, can't completely rule out a marginally severe instance of hail, but the threat seems quite low (at up to only around 5% from CSU MLP).
Saturday evening into Sunday, the cold front will stall and then lift gradually back northward as a warm-pseudostationary front with strengthening warm advection ahead of a low brewing across the Great Plains. The forecast remains a bit murky Sunday into Monday, as the deterministic models are each slightly different in how far north they take the warm front, and have different timing in shortwaves generating convection as they ripple eastward along it. At this point, it appears likely that for areas south of I-74 there will be at least one - and possibly several - rounds of storms those two days, though the northward extent of robust moisture sufficient for severe storms is a little ambiguous. The CSU MLP continues to generate a broad 15% risk for severe storms both Sunday and Monday area-wide, though LREF joint probs for > 30 kt 0m-500mb shear and > 500 J/kg SBCAPE peak on Monday at around 40-50%, suggesting that may be the most favored day. We'll continue to monitor that potential.
Behind the cold front, which some guidance suggests could take until late Tuesday to completely clear the area, a cooler airmass will overspread the Midwest and Ohio Valley, though this appears short lived with only one or perhaps two nights mid next week where there's concern for another (hard) freeze. NBM suggests 30-50% (20- 35%) chances for a freeze Tuesday (Wednesday) night north of I-72, tapering to less than 15% south of I-70. Chances for a hard freeze are less than 15% area-wide both nights.
Bumgardner
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
WSW winds will increase to 10-14 kt later this morning, gusting to 20 kt during the afternoon and evening, as the pressure gradient tightens between a departing trough and expanding ridge of high pressure. As the atmosphere decouples this evening, winds will ease but ceilings around 050-080 accompanied by virga and isolated sprinkles will move towards the ESE along the I-74 corridor.
Bumgardner
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 556 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of storms are forecast Friday evening through early next week. Severe potential will be low (up to around 5%) Friday night, but appears to increase Sunday into Monday.
- There is a 30-50% chance for freezing temperatures north of I-72 Tuesday night, with slightly lower chances Wednesday night.
Precautions might be needed to protect tender vegetation once again.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Water vapor satellite shows an upper trough, whose axis roughly bisects IL at 145am, slowly migrating eastward across the Upper Great Lakes. Deterministic and ensemble guidance agrees that as this shifts eastward today and ridging expands into the Midwest behind it, 850mb temps will rise to 2-3 degC by late afternoon when, despite some pesky mid-level clouds, sfc temps should have no trouble warming well into the 50s (perhaps 60 SW of a Macomb to Robinson line). The CAMs suggest a piece of mid level energy will then pass across the northern portion of the ILX CWA, producing some virga and perhaps even an isolated sprinkle north of I-72 this evening, and fostering an increase in low level moisture with HRRR mean suggesting mid to upper 30s dewpoints area-wide by late evening. This will thus mark the first of several nights where sub freezing temps are not expected, and in fact forecast lows in the mid 30s to low 40s could even be too low given (1) the aforementioned evening cloud cover, and (2) increasing mid-high clouds ahead of the next shortwave closer to sunrise tomorrow.
South-southwest winds will strengthen tomorrow for increasing warm advection which will add about 10 degrees, perhaps a little more, to our peak readings today. NBM even suggests a 50-60% chance highs reach or surpass 70 degF south of I-74, which seems plausible if we mix a little deeper than currently forecast. Precip chances increase Friday evening, when steepening mid level lapse rates (NAM is as aggressive as -8 to -8.5 C/km) associated with an incoming EML foster 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE across our west/northwest where the ECMWF suggests thunderstorms develop between 7-11pm. These storms will translate east-southeast across a portion of central IL overnight and into Saturday morning, with some redevelopment across areas mainly east of I-57 Saturday afternoon with the cold front. Given the steep lapse rates, can't completely rule out a marginally severe instance of hail, but the threat seems quite low (at up to only around 5% from CSU MLP).
Saturday evening into Sunday, the cold front will stall and then lift gradually back northward as a warm-pseudostationary front with strengthening warm advection ahead of a low brewing across the Great Plains. The forecast remains a bit murky Sunday into Monday, as the deterministic models are each slightly different in how far north they take the warm front, and have different timing in shortwaves generating convection as they ripple eastward along it. At this point, it appears likely that for areas south of I-74 there will be at least one - and possibly several - rounds of storms those two days, though the northward extent of robust moisture sufficient for severe storms is a little ambiguous. The CSU MLP continues to generate a broad 15% risk for severe storms both Sunday and Monday area-wide, though LREF joint probs for > 30 kt 0m-500mb shear and > 500 J/kg SBCAPE peak on Monday at around 40-50%, suggesting that may be the most favored day. We'll continue to monitor that potential.
Behind the cold front, which some guidance suggests could take until late Tuesday to completely clear the area, a cooler airmass will overspread the Midwest and Ohio Valley, though this appears short lived with only one or perhaps two nights mid next week where there's concern for another (hard) freeze. NBM suggests 30-50% (20- 35%) chances for a freeze Tuesday (Wednesday) night north of I-72, tapering to less than 15% south of I-70. Chances for a hard freeze are less than 15% area-wide both nights.
Bumgardner
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
WSW winds will increase to 10-14 kt later this morning, gusting to 20 kt during the afternoon and evening, as the pressure gradient tightens between a departing trough and expanding ridge of high pressure. As the atmosphere decouples this evening, winds will ease but ceilings around 050-080 accompanied by virga and isolated sprinkles will move towards the ESE along the I-74 corridor.
Bumgardner
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KCMI UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOISWILLARD,IL | 6 sm | 17 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 27°F | 23°F | 86% | 30.17 | |
KTIP RANTOUL NATL AVN CNTRFRANK ELLIOTT FLD,IL | 13 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 28°F | 25°F | 86% | 30.17 |
Central Illinois, IL,
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