Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbana, IL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Weather Synopsis

09z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front dropping southward toward the Ohio River while a ridge of high pressure builds into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest
Aloft
a deep low remains anchored over Hudson Bay with northwesterly flow around this feature from western Canada into the Midwest. Meanwhile another upper low is evident on water vapor imagery off the coast of California.

Snow Sunday Night/Monday Morning

The cold front will continue to settle southward before becoming parallel with the upper flow and stalling in the Tennessee River Valley on Sunday. As a short-wave trough ejects eastward from the California upper low and interacts with the baroclinic zone, wintry precipitation will develop across Missouri on Sunday...then spread eastward across parts of central Illinois Sunday night into early Monday morning. Models continue to trend this system further south and weaker, with the 00z Feb 28 suite now suggesting locations along/north of I-74 may see little or no snow. The most recent Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (PWSSI) from WPC shows a 20-40% chance of Minor Impacts south of the I-74 corridor...with higher probabilities focused further west across Missouri. Based on the southward shift in the wave track, the initially dry airmass, and limited deep-layer moisture, think snow accumulations of 1-2 inches will occur along/south of Macomb to Paris line...with less than 1 inch further north. While the snow will be light, snow-covered and slippery roads will be possible for the Monday morning commute. The light snow will change to rain, then taper off and/or come to an end Monday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the lower 40s.

Strong Thunderstorms Wednesday

An active weather pattern will set up across the Midwest/Ohio River Valley next week as a series of waves interact with the stalled baroclinic zone within the W/SW upper flow regime. Models are suggesting a stronger wave and its associated surface low will track into the region on Wednesday. While the exact track of the low and its associated strong/severe weather risk remains somewhat in question, a clear signal for convection is developing. While the 00z ECMWF is slightly further south with its low track and is thus not as stormy, the GFS shows a 1010mb low lifting into west-central Illinois by 00z Thu. The atmosphere ahead of the low is progged to be modestly unstable (SBCAPE 400-600J/kg) and strongly sheared (0-6km bulk shear 50-60kt)...so the fuel for strong thunderstorms will be present. At this time, it appears the timing of the system may be a bit too slow to favor strong storms this far east...instead focusing the greatest risk further upstream across the Southern Plains during the day. The latest Colorado State Machine Learning algorithm indicates a 5-15% chance for severe across Illinois...but a 15-30% chance over parts of eastern Oklahoma/Kansas. Stay tuned for further details as the situation becomes clearer over the next few forecast cycles.

Beneficial Rainfall Next Week

While the severe weather risk remains uncertain, confidence is growing that widespread beneficial rainfall will arrive across central Illinois next week. The synoptic pattern will feature favorable deep-layer W/SW flow, ample northward moisture transport from the Gulf, and a series of short-wave troughs interacting with a nearly stationary frontal boundary. The end result will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the week. While model QPF fields vary, all solutions are pointing to much-needed rain across the entire region. It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals:however, the 00z LREF indicates a nearly 100% chance of greater than 1 inch across the entire KILX CWA through next Saturday morning...and a 50-70% of more than 2 inches.

Barnes

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 12z TAF period.
Mid/high clouds will be on the increase this morning with NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggesting ceilings gradually lowering to 7000-8000ft toward midday. After a period of overcast conditions, the clouds will partially scatter this evening. Winds will initially be N at 5-10kt early this morning, then will veer to E/SE this afternoon. After a weak area of low pressure passes south of Illinois, winds will back to NE and gust 15-20kt this evening.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.